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re: Helene - Recovery Begins...Devastating Flash Flooding in Western NC and Eastern TN

Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:20 pm to
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
40227 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:20 pm to
Weaker would be a blessing.
Posted by whiskey over ice
Member since Sep 2020
3758 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:23 pm to
quote:

Literally care very little where I go as long as I’m not wiping butts, working, or being an unpaid Uber driver.


I hear Punta Cana is nice this time of year
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75116 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:23 pm to
quote:

What day/time should one be out of Atlanta to avoid this

On Thursday the weather will just get worse as the day goes on. Into the afternoon and evening would be the worst.

ETA: If it keeps the forward speed that models are showing now.
This post was edited on 9/23/24 at 6:24 pm
Posted by friendlyobservation
Member since Mar 2024
5137 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:25 pm to
GFS past few days keeps trying to spin something up on the end of their runs so might have something to worry about two weeks from now.
Posted by deeprig9
Unincorporated Ozora
Member since Sep 2012
75359 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:26 pm to
quote:

What day/time should one be out of Atlanta to avoid this


ATL isn't getting a damn thing out of this. We need the rain badly, but this one will forsake us just like the last three that were supposed to drench us but delivered jack shite.

Thoughts and prayers for the people wherever this makes landfall, they will definitely get all they bargained for. My post isn't to diminish what that experience will be.



Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
40227 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:27 pm to
Don’t want or need anything behind this one.
Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
26623 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:27 pm to
quote:

ATL isn't getting a damn thing out of this. We need the rain badly, but this one will forsake us just like the last three that were supposed to drench us but delivered jack shite.


The models have been showing it going right over Atlanta. Unless you're just intentionally downplaying it, in hopes that it will hear you and head your way.

Like a reverse psychology ops on a hurricane.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75116 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:28 pm to
quote:

The models have been showing it going right over Atlanta. Unless you're just intentionally downplaying it, in hopes that it will hear you and head your way.

Like a reverse psychology ops on a hurricane

Well, now you've gone and jinxed his plan.
Posted by LanierSpots
Sarasota, Florida
Member since Sep 2010
71078 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:35 pm to
quote:

That's funny, I work at the main SMH campus, what a small world.



Nice. We eat over at Coopers Hawk on Fruitville often. My wife is a member of their wine club.

Posted by Skillet
Member since Aug 2006
113828 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:38 pm to
Hi picc

And holy shite, this hurricane thread has gotten a lil off track huh?
Posted by LanierSpots
Sarasota, Florida
Member since Sep 2010
71078 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:38 pm to
quote:

Is this not abnormal? To have a storm not even formed yet and scheduled to make landfall 3 days later? This bitch is gonna have to fly.



Saying it will only be in the gulf one day. We dont need 15 more inches of rain. The faster the better here. Get in, get out. Dont leave more water. Its wet enough


Posted by FLBooGoTigs1
Nocatee, FL.
Member since Jan 2008
59271 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:41 pm to
Man the west coast of Florida has been snake bit the last 3 or 4 that have hit Florida. Let’s just hope this mofo is going to move quickly because that forecast isn’t looking good.
Posted by Pettifogger
I don't really care, Margaret
Member since Feb 2012
87342 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:41 pm to
I’ll skip the rain if i get to skip TS winds in Atlanta

We don’t need treemageddon
Posted by Lithium
Member since Dec 2004
64237 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:43 pm to
It looks like the projections keep moving it to the east
Posted by FLBooGoTigs1
Nocatee, FL.
Member since Jan 2008
59271 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:44 pm to
It keeps going more East the Tampa area may be in play again. Not good
Posted by deeprig9
Unincorporated Ozora
Member since Sep 2012
75359 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:45 pm to
quote:

The models have been showing it going right over Atlanta. Unless you're just intentionally downplaying it, in hopes that it will hear you and head your way.

Like a reverse psychology ops on a hurricane.


I can neither confirm nor deny any sort of reverse jinx attempt with my post. I think that's preposterous. How could my simple words on a discussion forum change the track of a hurricane? Let's not be absurd, friend.


ETA- it's not high winds and downed trees that I want, it's the rainfall.
This post was edited on 9/23/24 at 6:47 pm
Posted by stout
Porte du Lafitte
Member since Sep 2006
182283 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:50 pm to
quote:

Yes, Picc...a turn to a more populated area, thus potentially causing much more death and destruction, would allow for you to have your girls weekend on 30A happen with potentially less weather interruptions.



Posted by Bernie Bierman
Member since Mar 2019
2175 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 6:57 pm to
quote:

It keeps going more East the Tampa area may be in play again.

lol no. The lands of the bay Tampa are said to have been blessed by the Tocobaga.
Posted by Tarps99
Lafourche Parish
Member since Apr 2017
12661 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 7:00 pm to

quote:

O/U on how many times the cone moves between now and Thursday


I have 350
This post was edited on 9/23/24 at 7:01 pm
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14281 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 7:03 pm to
Summary of approximate model forecasted landfall winds and pressure on this cycle (18Z runs).

GFS - 69.5 kts = 80 mph and 965 MB
ECMWF - 50 kts = 60 mph and 983 MB (latest 12Z run)
HWRF - 110.7 kts = 125 mph and 934 MB
HMON - 119.9 kts = 140 mph and 930 MB
HAFS-A - 74.2 kts = 85 mph and 965 MB
HAFS-B - 68.2 kts = 80 mph and 965 MB

Average = 95 mph and 957 MB

This is just for informational purposes. Use the official NHC forecasted wind speeds to make your personal decisions.
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