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re: Helene - Recovery Begins...Devastating Flash Flooding in Western NC and Eastern TN
Posted on 9/21/24 at 8:33 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Posted on 9/21/24 at 8:33 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Spann is a really good guy. And doesn’t hype stuff up to get clicks. His tornado coverage is second to none. And he knows every small town and country road in Alabama. He will be like “the tornado is going to cross about 1 mile north of big Billy’s bbq in Birdville. Birdville had a really bad hail storm on October 16th 1974”
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Posted on 9/21/24 at 8:54 pm to lsugolfredman
quote:
We’re in the cone!
Posted on 9/21/24 at 9:01 pm to Midtiger farm
quote:
This is totally false Multiple models had Francine exactly right over a week out and they decently accurate on the upper air pattern 5-7days out
lol…some of y’all are so dense.
It has nothing to do with days out, knucklehead, it’s that it hasn’t really developed into anything yet to give them any data points.
Posted on 9/21/24 at 9:05 pm to RummelTiger
quote:
lol…some of y’all are so dense.
It has nothing to do with days out, knucklehead, it’s that it hasn’t really developed into anything yet to give them any data points.
It really is hilarious that people don't understand this
Posted on 9/21/24 at 9:08 pm to GEAUXT
Fr though, anyone else tired of this shite and just want to move from the coast?
Not sure where I’d go, because eac part of the U.S. has its weather.
Not sure where I’d go, because eac part of the U.S. has its weather.
Posted on 9/21/24 at 9:14 pm to JS87
This is from my nephew who works for FOX Weather in NYC.
As of 9 p.m. this evening. His analysis. It may be helpful, or it may not. You decide.
As of 9 p.m. this evening. His analysis. It may be helpful, or it may not. You decide.
quote:
Once again, not much has changed in the overall outlook for the Gulf tropics threat. The National Hurricane Center has increased the odds of development from 60% to 70% and is now explicitly forecasting the formation of a tropical depression in the next few days. It’s important to note that a tropical disturbance has yet to actually form in the Caribbean.
We still do not know exactly where the area of low pressure will begin to organize. Will it develop farther over the Caribbean, close to the Yucatán coast, or will it wait until it is in the Gulf of Mexico? Each of these scenarios is significant. The formation of the low is critical, but we must also consider what is happening over the continental U.S. The steering currents appear extremely complex, and I won’t delve into them right now.
There are many facets to the setup of this tropical system, and it will take another 2-3 days to work out the details. It truly won’t be until the low forms that we can start making more informed assumptions.
One important point to emphasize is the potential for this upcoming system to be quite large—large enough to cause significant coastal impacts, regardless of its strength. I've attached images from three of our major global forecast models.
Rather than focusing on where the storm might make landfall, let’s look at the areas where the reds indicate tropical storm-force sustained winds according to the models. There could be a substantial fetch of winds pushing into the coast for hundreds of miles, potentially extending far inland. Therefore, even if the system only becomes a tropical storm, it can still have major impacts along its path.
The models pictured below include the ECMWF (commonly known as the EURO), GEM (the Canadian model), and GFS (the American model). Once again, don’t focus on the specific positions of the storm, as they differ among the models. Instead, pay attention to the structure and the extensive reach of the tropical storm-force winds.
This post was edited on 9/21/24 at 9:17 pm
Posted on 9/21/24 at 9:17 pm to Will Cover
Plaquemines Parish has seemed to be the bullseye from the jump
Posted on 9/21/24 at 9:18 pm to JS87
Baton Rouge is kind of a sweet spot.
We avoid the EF4-5 tornados mostly… and we are far enough from the coast to fare well enough from a major hurricane.
We avoid the EF4-5 tornados mostly… and we are far enough from the coast to fare well enough from a major hurricane.
Posted on 9/21/24 at 9:22 pm to loogaroo
quote:
and we are far enough from the coast to fare well enough from a major hurricane.
All true, but Gustav wasn’t a walk in the park.
Posted on 9/21/24 at 9:26 pm to loogaroo
quote:
Baton Rouge is kind of a sweet spot.
I don't think those words have ever been arranged in that order on this board before. Might be the last time too.
Posted on 9/21/24 at 9:34 pm to notiger1997
quote:
Gustav wasn’t a walk in the park.
Neither was the most overlooked hurricane of all time - Rita
Posted on 9/21/24 at 9:35 pm to Turnblad85
quote:
quote:
Baton Rouge is kind of a sweet spot.
I don't think those words have ever been arranged in that order on this board before. Might be the last time too.
Exactly. My house was definitely not in anything that resembled a "sweet spot" during Gustav. That's a completely bullshite ,blanket statement.
Posted on 9/21/24 at 9:42 pm to Will Cover
quote:very helpful thank you.
It may be helpful, or it may not. You decide.
I’m out of town until a week from tomorrow. Looks like I’ll at least need to be paying attention
Posted on 9/21/24 at 9:44 pm to Marta1907
quote:
Wrong! Francine didn't have NO in the cone 5 to 7 days out.
Model doesnt equal cone dumbass
The Euro AI had Francine making landfall in sela on consistent runs over a week out and the Icon 5 days out
Posted on 9/21/24 at 9:47 pm to RummelTiger
quote:
It has nothing to do with days out, knucklehead, it’s that it hasn’t really developed into anything yet to give them any data points.
So Francine was developed 7 days before it hit?
It wasn’t even a TD 4 days before it hit and was a lemon 8 days before
Posted on 9/21/24 at 9:51 pm to Midtiger farm
Latest GFS hates Tampa…lol
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
This post was edited on 9/21/24 at 9:52 pm
Posted on 9/21/24 at 9:59 pm to JonTheTigerFan
quote:
Don’t doubt him, his catfish will predict this storm’s intensity and landfall with 99.999999% accuracy.
I already posted my catfish model on the first couple pages
It gets to major hurricane status then front weakens it to a Cat 1 and panhandle landfall
Posted on 9/21/24 at 10:01 pm to loogaroo
Gustav sucked. No power for 13 days in BR.
Posted on 9/21/24 at 10:03 pm to Midtiger farm
Why do you keep bringing up Francine? This has nothing to do with that.
Posted on 9/21/24 at 10:04 pm to RummelTiger
Why do people keep bringing up Gustav?
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