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Started By
Message
re: Helene - Recovery Begins...Devastating Flash Flooding in Western NC and Eastern TN
Posted on 9/21/24 at 4:29 pm to deltaland
Posted on 9/21/24 at 4:29 pm to deltaland
quote:
Most models seem to be in agreement on landfall from Nola to Pensacola now. All are TS strength
lol...there's not enough data for the models to have any real idea of what the thing does. Many people have posted links to Mets saying it's way too soon to get any decent idea as to what this thing will do.
Would not put any stock in models as of now.
2
Posted on 9/21/24 at 4:32 pm to Trout Bandit
quote:
That's my wife's people!
I saw Bobby's post, and then I saw your post and thought you were referring to the gremlin.
Posted on 9/21/24 at 4:34 pm to LegendInMyMind
Which Bob are we referring to here
Posted on 9/21/24 at 4:41 pm to TheBob
quote:
Which Bob are we referring to here
The OG Bob.
Posted on 9/21/24 at 5:02 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:quote:
Which Bob are we referring to here
The OG Bob.
quote:
TheBob
Metairie
Member since Jun 2005
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Posted on 9/21/24 at 5:18 pm to Bobby OG Johnson
18Z GFS is a Cat 3 into Apalachicola. Interesting to see this models slowly move east but vary in intensity.
Yes I know they don't mean much right now.
Yes I know they don't mean much right now.
Posted on 9/21/24 at 5:22 pm to m57
It still swings east and west bc 12Z was near Florida Alabama border
Posted on 9/21/24 at 5:50 pm to lsuman25
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If tweet fails to load, click here. I hope no one is getting annoyed with me posting updates from a meteorologist in Birmingham. Spann gives very concise updates without a bunch of hyperbole.
This post was edited on 9/21/24 at 5:52 pm
Posted on 9/21/24 at 5:53 pm to RummelTiger
quote:
lol...there's not enough data for the models to have any real idea of what the thing does. Many people have posted links to Mets saying it's way too soon to get any decent idea as to what this thing will do. Would not put any stock in models as of now.
Don’t doubt him, his catfish will predict this storm’s intensity and landfall with 99.999999% accuracy.
Posted on 9/21/24 at 6:05 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
All Information is welcomed! I don’t wish this on anyone, but would rather not have to deal with another storm so soon.
No matter what state the weather news comes from regarding the gulf coast, it’s valuable information to keep us updated
No matter what state the weather news comes from regarding the gulf coast, it’s valuable information to keep us updated
Posted on 9/21/24 at 6:13 pm to public_enemy
Getting a little more consistency today/this evening. Euro has started to favor more of the Eastern envelop (WCAB) for development, coming more towards the GFS. That makes sense given where we've seen convection starting to get going over the past 24 hours. Euro does involve the Yucatan a bit more, dragging the system more NW over it, maybe hampering development a bit. There's also decent agreement between the GFS and Euro on timing of the trough, but still some differences on its progression.
It will be interesting to see what, if anything, develops on the western side of the gyre, as that could play a role in the ceiling of the Gulf storm.
It will be interesting to see what, if anything, develops on the western side of the gyre, as that could play a role in the ceiling of the Gulf storm.
This post was edited on 9/21/24 at 7:23 pm
Posted on 9/21/24 at 6:40 pm to LegendInMyMind
Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure should form during the next few days
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent portions of
Central America. Thereafter, gradual development of this system is
expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form as the system
moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
Gulf of Mexico through the end of next week. Regardless of
development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over
portions of Central America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Posted on 9/21/24 at 6:44 pm to lsuman25
Posted on 9/21/24 at 7:06 pm to LSUEnvy
We’re in the cone!
Posted on 9/21/24 at 7:07 pm to Bobby OG Johnson
quote:
8PM EDT Sep 21: We continue to monitor 3 areas for potential development across the Atlantic basin. A low pressure system is expected to form in the NW Caribbean Sea in a few days and it has a 70% chance of development while it moves generally northward across the Gulf of Mexico next week. Stay up to date with the latest as we move into next week at LINK
quote:
National Hurricane Center
@NHC_Atlantic
·
23m
The two other systems include a tropical wave in the eastern/central tropical Atlantic which has a 40 percent chance of development. The other area is located in the central subtropical Atlantic which has a 10 percent chance of development.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 9/21/24 at 7:10 pm to RummelTiger
quote:
lol...there's not enough data for the models to have any real idea of what the thing does
This is totally false
Multiple models had Francine exactly right over a week out and they decently accurate on the upper air pattern 5-7days out
Posted on 9/21/24 at 7:23 pm to Midtiger farm
The problem is there this isnt a wave. Big circulation gonna spin up smaller circulation and I dont have confidence on where it will be.
Upper levels can be right but fire the storm off 200 miles east of expectations and ...
Look, the modeling this afternoon has been favoring an eastern start to this. Once that is more concrete, we can use the models to have a good idea whats going to happen.
I do want to note, I expect this to take a while to tighten up. Could easily see this being a weaker broad system, but certainly not a guarantee
Upper levels can be right but fire the storm off 200 miles east of expectations and ...
Look, the modeling this afternoon has been favoring an eastern start to this. Once that is more concrete, we can use the models to have a good idea whats going to happen.
I do want to note, I expect this to take a while to tighten up. Could easily see this being a weaker broad system, but certainly not a guarantee
Posted on 9/21/24 at 7:26 pm to Bobby OG Johnson
Red fetus shape doesn’t seem good.
Posted on 9/21/24 at 7:40 pm to lsugolfredman
(no message)
This post was edited on 9/21/24 at 7:42 pm
Posted on 9/21/24 at 8:19 pm to Midtiger farm
Wrong! Francine didn't have NO in the cone 5 to 7 days out.
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