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re: Helene - Recovery Begins...Devastating Flash Flooding in Western NC and Eastern TN

Posted on 9/20/24 at 10:08 pm to
Posted by Mouth
Member since Jan 2008
23079 posts
Posted on 9/20/24 at 10:08 pm to
quote:

This gfs run can go frick itself


Honestly. I’ll take that being on the west side. As long as it’s not a cat 4

ETA: and I'm on the Northshore.
This post was edited on 9/20/24 at 10:19 pm
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21518 posts
Posted on 9/20/24 at 10:11 pm to
quote:

Never heard of the Korean model. ( I assume it’s BS since it isn’t shown on Levi’s site).

888mb??? What is the lowest ever recorded?


I don't know anything about this model, but would guess it has issues with latent heat fluxes. So, maybe something similaiar to what the NAM 3k does with tropical systems.
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
40227 posts
Posted on 9/20/24 at 10:21 pm to
If that by any chance holds true I guess I’ll be glad I didn’t book a last minute trip.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75116 posts
Posted on 9/20/24 at 10:22 pm to
quote:

I don't know anything about this model,


That's a pretty common statement after that screen grab started making the rounds.
Posted by lsumailman61
Gulf Shores
Member since Oct 2006
7968 posts
Posted on 9/20/24 at 10:26 pm to
If that holds true, I’m fricked. I’ll be evacuating to Vermillion parish with an infant lol
This post was edited on 9/20/24 at 10:28 pm
Posted by OTIS2
NoLA
Member since Jul 2008
52545 posts
Posted on 9/20/24 at 10:29 pm to
Bring a few boxes of oysters with you to Funroe!
This post was edited on 9/21/24 at 6:10 am
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
40227 posts
Posted on 9/20/24 at 10:32 pm to
That would be crazy .. first your parents (with nothing happening in the end .. then you. Yall don’t need anything like this.

I’ve evacuated with toddlers .. I’d think an infant would be easier in some ways but still no fun.)

(Also I’m still embarrassed that I assumed you were a mailman who graduated from LSU in 1961 )

(Can you remind me of the name of the restaurant where you work/used to work??)
This post was edited on 9/20/24 at 10:35 pm
Posted by TigerDat
Member since Aug 2010
8172 posts
Posted on 9/20/24 at 10:36 pm to
quote:

This gfs run can go frick itself


Praying for that run to come true, sorry not sorry. After Francine and us leaving next Friday for Orlando leaving our son behind at home. I'd take that one. Low impart to the home town and low to no impact on orlando
Posted by fr33manator
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2010
134623 posts
Posted on 9/20/24 at 10:38 pm to
Please just let it go to Mexico. Anywhere but here or ocean springs. I've got a place booked and don't know if I'll get a refund

frick this is not what I needed now.

Is there any chance this thing just fizzles out?
Posted by tilco
Spanish Fort, AL
Member since Nov 2013
14478 posts
Posted on 9/20/24 at 10:50 pm to
I hope you wreck on the way to Orlando. And it hits there anyway. Sorry not sorry.
Posted by Walking the Earth
Member since Feb 2013
17457 posts
Posted on 9/20/24 at 10:59 pm to
quote:

Is there any chance this thing just fizzles out?


I don't know about fizzling out but the locals are saying it could potentially just remain a disorganized mass of thinderstorms.
Posted by TigersSEC2010
Warren, Michigan
Member since Jan 2010
38444 posts
Posted on 9/20/24 at 11:00 pm to
frick. I need to get out of MSY on Friday. This is not good.
Posted by Clockwatcher68
Youngsville
Member since May 2006
8054 posts
Posted on 9/20/24 at 11:01 pm to
quote:

I don't know anything about this model, but would guess it has issues with latent heat fluxes.


Posted by Chad504boy
4 posts
Member since Feb 2005
178925 posts
Posted on 9/20/24 at 11:02 pm to
Oh look Guys 20% now 60% who would a thunk it
Posted by FutureMikeVIII
Houston
Member since Sep 2011
1764 posts
Posted on 9/20/24 at 11:11 pm to
quote:

Oh look Guys 20% now 60% who would a thunk it


You don’t even understand how days work, do you?
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/20/24 at 11:49 pm to
To be fair, Chad doesn’t know how any of this works.
Posted by Mr Roboto
Seattle
Member since Jan 2023
8153 posts
Posted on 9/20/24 at 11:55 pm to
I’m a simple man. I see a Chad hurricane post, I downvote it.
Posted by Titsbywilly
Member since Dec 2023
66 posts
Posted on 9/21/24 at 12:02 am to
00 model looking good for non panhandle baws
Posted by SWLA92
SWLA
Member since Feb 2015
5047 posts
Posted on 9/21/24 at 12:25 am to
Models right now are good for entertaining purposes. The GFS ensembles paint a different picture. Theres an early cluster that goes into Florida, then there’s a later cluster that is more over the central and west gulf. It’s all about timing. The faster this thing gets started, the more of a Florida threat. The slower it takes to develop the more west it will get.
This post was edited on 9/21/24 at 12:26 am
Posted by PetroBabich
Donetsk Oblast
Member since Apr 2017
5137 posts
Posted on 9/21/24 at 12:56 am to
Thanks for bringing a level headeded take to the hysteria.
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