re: Helene - Recovery Begins...Devastating Flash Flooding in Western NC and Eastern TN

quote:

---

I’m a simple man. I see a Chad hurricane post, I downvote it.

---

quote:

---

This gfs run can go frick itself

---

quote:

---

LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 The interest continues to be in the extended in the tropical category so lets dive into that. We need to start off with the main large scale systems at play today then move into the extended to see how this all plays out. The stacked high near us will actually move east with time across the gulf coast into the western Atlantic by late Wed. This will allow the next trough to create a weakness down the Miss River Valley during that same time frame which splits the stacked high to the east and the new stacked high over the SW CONUS. Now we need to back up to the present again. The current east coast upper trough extends SSW down the east coast through the FL Keys then SW into the Yucatan then turns west as it exits Chiapas, MX into the EASTPAC. This is very important as this trough has a strong mid level reflection whose axis extends along this same arc. The east coast upper trough will keep moving east stretching the southern end and eventually cutting off an upper low from its southern most portion. It is this trough that will slowly cause the EASTPAC energy to begin flowing along its mid level boundary. And as we all know how mass moves along these boundaries in the northern hemisphere, it will eventually cause the disturbances flowing westeard along the ITCZ to stall in the eastern most portion of the Pacific which should occur by late today/evening. We will then see the activity along the ITCZ actually begin to flow eastward by Sunday. Where this trough axis bends over southern Mexico, it will cause a lot of this energy to be trasported NEward into the Caribbean during this time as well. We already see this flow occurring in the upper levels with help from IR sat imagery. Eventually, even the disturbances south of Mexico will turn northward by late Tue into Wed as the upper low begins to move NNW over the gulf. This flow of disturbances and deep moisture that has trasported into the Caribbean will then be allowed to start developing under a more hospitable environment. This "area" could be over the western Caribbean or southern gulf or both since this energy transport will also start moving into the southern gulf too which is the reason for the large area of 60% development probs. By now, one can now start putting the pieces together. During this same time frame(Wednesdayish), is when something is trying to get going near the Yucatan while, if you read the start of this paragraph, this is the same time that the weakness is located over the Miss River Valley. Any mass to the south of this CONUS trough will obviously be transported northward. It is in this time frame that things become very questionable, mainly because we are quite a ways out in time and all kinds of things that are not accounted for in the models could cause things to diverge from what they are trying to advertise. But a strong short wave is shown to begin moving south out of central Canada Mon/Tue digging into the base of this upper trough by Wed which would slow the trough while it does so. This is what we see bringing this system into the central and northern gulf with time via each model. Now...let alone the plethera of things not accounted for, timing will be the biggest question with this short wave into the base of the Miss River upper trough by mid week. This timing will be paramount as we move from Wed into the end of next week. It takes a while for all these things to come together with these types of scenarios but it looks likely that it will. One thing that all global models agree on is the transformation of this system from a barotropic to more baroclinicity as it moves north developing a frontal arc to its south as it moves toward the northern gulf coast, wherever that may be. This does not mean much except that when systems do this, typically their wind field begins to expand outward. This is very normal as we move into the end of September into October.

---

quote:

---

Cliffs?

---

quote:

---

It's sounding like Navarre Beach is not going to be a good place to be middle of next week.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

---

quote:

---

I wouldn't say that. Maybe it does hit close to there but this thing hasn't even formed yet.

---