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re: Helene - Recovery Begins...Devastating Flash Flooding in Western NC and Eastern TN
Posted on 9/26/24 at 11:27 pm to RockChalkTiger
Posted on 9/26/24 at 11:27 pm to RockChalkTiger
quote:
Perry getting their third hurricane in 13 months. Maybe take down the big Confederate flag. God might be black!
Wow, Top Ten all-time asinine comments on TD.com........
0
Posted on 9/26/24 at 11:29 pm to halleburton
quote:
I truly think NWS dramatizes wind and surge for tropical systems these last few years. So far I haven’t seen any weather stations corroborate the projected wind speeds, even in the outer bands that wouldn’t be affected by outages.
Umm....if it was a NWS conspiracy wouldn't the NWS/NOAA manipulate the data gathered by the weather stations that they control and operate to better suite their agenda? For frick's sake......
This post was edited on 9/26/24 at 11:31 pm
Posted on 9/26/24 at 11:30 pm to halleburton
Hurricanes are not consistent. They evolve ediecuskky when interacting with land. The wind speeds are set based on aircraft flying through a storm at a point in time and predicting what’s at the surface based on what’s at elevation.
Think of a daily thunderstorm. As it moves, does it stay constant?
Think of a daily thunderstorm. As it moves, does it stay constant?
Posted on 9/26/24 at 11:30 pm to halleburton
quote:
So 9’ of surge and rising per that gauge, and what was their projection….
The winds just shifted to the West so this storm surge is expected to continue for another couple of hours. No idea how much higher its expected to go but its not receding for a few hours at least.
Posted on 9/26/24 at 11:31 pm to halleburton
For the record, the projection was 15-20’. That’s a MASSIVE 50+% miss.
quote:
So 9’ of surge and rising per that gauge, and what was their projection…. I’m firmly in the path of hurricanes and I truly think NWS dramatizes wind and surge for tropical systems these last few years. So far I haven’t seen any weather stations corroborate the projected wind speeds, even in the outer bands that wouldn’t be affected by outages. If anyone has data to show otherwise, I would love to see it.
Posted on 9/26/24 at 11:32 pm to rds dc
I gotta say, it’s pretty amazing how well the models predicted this thing way back when it was only a 30% chance of even developing into something.
Posted on 9/26/24 at 11:32 pm to LegendInMyMind
Where is the data to support a cat 4 at landfall?
Posted on 9/26/24 at 11:35 pm to LSUFanHouston
quote:Definitely a fair point. I’d expect ebbs and flows.
Hurricanes are not consistent. They evolve ediecuskky when interacting with land. The wind speeds are set based on aircraft flying through a storm at a point in time and predicting what’s at the surface based on what’s at elevation.
But this does seem to be quite a shortfall from what was projected. Forecasts had this thing holding Cat2 until past Middle Georgia, no? Right now this thing is not holding that pattern unless there is a major shift in wind speed.
Im definitely an ignoramus with this stuff though so pardon my dumbness
Posted on 9/26/24 at 11:36 pm to halleburton
We have a swimmer! youtube
Posted on 9/26/24 at 11:37 pm to halleburton
Looks like they were more accurate on the Tampa Bay 5 to 8 foot projections with the gauges showing between 6 and 7.75 feet right now.
Maybe the surge models are designed for a long tracking fully developed Cat 4 that has much more than a few hours to build surge? I dunno.
Maybe the surge models are designed for a long tracking fully developed Cat 4 that has much more than a few hours to build surge? I dunno.
This post was edited on 9/26/24 at 11:40 pm
Posted on 9/26/24 at 11:37 pm to halleburton
quote:
For the record, the projection was 15-20’. That’s a MASSIVE 50+% miss.
Friendly reminder: People said that they busted on Laura's surge forecast. They were proven wrong. Believe it or not, not all information is available during an ongoing landfall.
Posted on 9/26/24 at 11:40 pm to NorthEndZone
Posted on 9/26/24 at 11:40 pm to LegendInMyMind
Totally agree, but the tide and wind stations are still reporting, and nothing is matching the projections. Airports, further off tide stations, etc.
Posted on 9/26/24 at 11:45 pm to LegendInMyMind
That sounds like the Predator.
This post was edited on 9/26/24 at 11:47 pm
Posted on 9/26/24 at 11:48 pm to LegendInMyMind
Valdosta ia currently showing 35mph winds while being IN the eye wall, with a max forecast of 45.
I absolutely love these threads and use them for planning, and take nothing from the knowledgeable Mets on here, but the actual data isn’t jiving with the forecast/projections, and it hasn’t for several years now.
I absolutely love these threads and use them for planning, and take nothing from the knowledgeable Mets on here, but the actual data isn’t jiving with the forecast/projections, and it hasn’t for several years now.
Posted on 9/26/24 at 11:49 pm to LSUFanHouston
I zoned out watching the paramount weather guys clear trees off i10.
He's wants to strap that tree to the bumper and the other guy is like no way.
He's wants to strap that tree to the bumper and the other guy is like no way.
This post was edited on 9/26/24 at 11:51 pm
Posted on 9/26/24 at 11:52 pm to LSUFanHouston
15’ above MSL is 15’, and I get the difference between surge and wind blown surge which will vary locally, and to a very large degree.
Posted on 9/26/24 at 11:52 pm to halleburton
quote:
Valdosta ia currently showing 35mph winds while being IN the eye wall, with a max forecast of 45.
According to my Fox 8 weather app, Valdosta GA has sustained winds ESE at 91 mph
It appears the northern eyeball is passing over now or just passed according to radar.
Posted on 9/26/24 at 11:53 pm to halleburton
quote:
I absolutely love these threads and use them for planning, and take nothing from the knowledgeable Mets on here, but the actual data isn’t jiving with the forecast/projections, and it hasn’t for several years now.
Hurricane Laura begs to differ.
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