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re: Helene - Recovery Begins...Devastating Flash Flooding in Western NC and Eastern TN

Posted on 9/20/24 at 11:04 am to
Posted by Mr. Hangover
New Orleans
Member since Sep 2003
34766 posts
Posted on 9/20/24 at 11:04 am to
quote:

To highlight the fact that nothing has a handle on this: At the same time the GFS has the storm deteriorating just after landfall



For the record, I’m not worried yet. If anything, the fact that they have that one prediction of it hitting us this early is a good thing

Plenty of time for it to change
Posted by jcaz
Laffy
Member since Aug 2014
17759 posts
Posted on 9/20/24 at 11:04 am to
Not even gonna concern myself with this until late next week.
No reason to worry or panic this early on.
Posted by SippyCup
Gulf Coast
Member since Sep 2008
6544 posts
Posted on 9/20/24 at 11:05 am to
quote:

Can we assume that weekend will be a wet day of football in the South?


No you can’t. It could be sunny and cool for all we know.
Posted by Suntiger
STG or BR or somewhere else
Member since Feb 2007
34651 posts
Posted on 9/20/24 at 11:08 am to
There's too many men, too many people, in this thread making too many problems. And not much love to go round. It’s making this a thread of confusion!
Posted by Motorboat
At the camp
Member since Oct 2007
23481 posts
Posted on 9/20/24 at 11:14 am to
Nice genesis reference
Posted by USEyourCURDS
Member since Apr 2016
12560 posts
Posted on 9/20/24 at 11:18 am to
Let’s make this a hurricane of love thread
Posted by Tiger Ryno
#WoF
Member since Feb 2007
105895 posts
Posted on 9/20/24 at 11:19 am to
quote:

That's quite a bit west of the runs I saw yesterday, and much closer to where Francine hit


Nice wish cast baw!!!
Posted by gaetti15
AK
Member since Apr 2013
14113 posts
Posted on 9/20/24 at 11:29 am to
This is going to be one of those things where the GFS and other models have a hard on for the CAG to spin something up, but then the models just push it back and back until it poofs or goes into Mexico isn't it?

I vaguely remember the GFS having a hard on for CAG stuff.

12z GFS has it go right up the poop shoot of coastal MS
This post was edited on 9/20/24 at 11:30 am
Posted by GeauxLSUGRL
Member since Nov 2014
762 posts
Posted on 9/20/24 at 11:41 am to
I ended up canceling mine to Orange Beach it was for Thurs 26th-Monday. I wanted no part of being on the road or the beach while something is out there brewing like this.
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
13162 posts
Posted on 9/20/24 at 11:47 am to
GFS with Friday night / Saturday morning timing for landfall. That is about 24 hours earlier than the run 6 hours ago. Biloxi location.

The ICON has a Thursday night landfall but near Destin.

Canadian CMC shows Saturday afternoon and Vermilion Bay.

But at this point with no center position to initialize the models, who knows when or where landfall will be.
This post was edited on 9/20/24 at 11:52 am
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
45888 posts
Posted on 9/20/24 at 11:49 am to
quote:

quote:
That's quite a bit west of the runs I saw yesterday, and much closer to where Francine hit


Nice wish cast baw!!!

For the life of me, I'll never understand what the OT thinks wishcasting is.
Posted by Thracken13
Aft Cargo Hold of Serenity
Member since Feb 2010
18208 posts
Posted on 9/20/24 at 12:00 pm to
quote:

If I tell y’all the moon is made of cheese, get the crackers!


everyone knows the moon is made of spare ribs
Posted by friendlyobservation
Member since Mar 2024
1881 posts
Posted on 9/20/24 at 12:03 pm to
I like how this graphic shows it deciding to tap dance around Louisiana then it decides to tap dance on Bama+Miss like nope I'm not leaving.
Posted by lsugolfredman
Member since Jun 2005
1928 posts
Posted on 9/20/24 at 12:04 pm to
12z Model Round Up::

Canadian next Saturday Afternoon:



GFS:



GFS Ensembles:





Posted by elprez00
Hammond, LA
Member since Sep 2011
30691 posts
Posted on 9/20/24 at 12:06 pm to
quote:

This is going to be one of those things where the GFS and other models have a hard on for the CAG to spin something up, but then the models just push it back and back until it poofs or goes into Mexico isn't it?

I’ll be fine with that. I’m supposed to be on vacation next weekend and really don’t want to be at work on storm duty.
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
5571 posts
Posted on 9/20/24 at 12:08 pm to
How accurate have yall found Mike's Weather Page on facebook? The trends given all the data definitely seem like its going straight north or possibly even a bit northwest, but he has consistently implied (while giving himself outs that he is "not predicting it") that it would go into central/south Florida.
Posted by chryso
Baton Rouge
Member since Jul 2008
13158 posts
Posted on 9/20/24 at 12:09 pm to
quote:

For the life of me, I'll never understand what the OT thinks wishcasting is.


It's when you comment on a model that someone doesn't like.
Posted by elprez00
Hammond, LA
Member since Sep 2011
30691 posts
Posted on 9/20/24 at 12:11 pm to
quote:

How accurate have yall found Mike's Weather Page on facebook? The trends given all the data definitely seem like its going straight north or possibly even a bit northwest, but he has consistently implied (while giving himself outs that he is "not predicting it") that it would go into central/south Florida.

He reposts content from spaghetti models and spins up the Facebook crowd.

Why is is so hard to follow WDSU or Fox 8 weather pages if you want updates?
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
67168 posts
Posted on 9/20/24 at 12:13 pm to
quote:

How accurate have yall found Mike's Weather Page on facebook? The trends given all the data definitely seem like its going straight north or possibly even a bit northwest, but he has consistently implied (while giving himself outs that he is "not predicting it") that it would go into central/south Florida.

Mike is good, he's been doing it a long time.

If you're going to forecast this system right now the most likely track is to the east, which is pretty much everyone's thinking. Models have been pretty consistent on the front that would push it East.
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
39303 posts
Posted on 9/20/24 at 12:14 pm to
Was curious as to what you did. We’d leave Monday and come home Friday or Saturday. Our issue is that if anything does come our way, he is the one who helps his mom and dad take care of all of the things at their house as well as ours. I’m not so much worried about ours as opposed to them being upset that he’s not there to help them.
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