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Started By
Message
re: Helene - Recovery Begins...Devastating Flash Flooding in Western NC and Eastern TN
Posted on 9/20/24 at 11:04 am to LegendInMyMind
Posted on 9/20/24 at 11:04 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
To highlight the fact that nothing has a handle on this: At the same time the GFS has the storm deteriorating just after landfall
For the record, I’m not worried yet. If anything, the fact that they have that one prediction of it hitting us this early is a good thing

Plenty of time for it to change
Posted on 9/20/24 at 11:04 am to Nutriaitch
Not even gonna concern myself with this until late next week.
No reason to worry or panic this early on.
No reason to worry or panic this early on.
Posted on 9/20/24 at 11:05 am to StringedInstruments
quote:
Can we assume that weekend will be a wet day of football in the South?
No you can’t. It could be sunny and cool for all we know.
Posted on 9/20/24 at 11:08 am to Nutriaitch
There's too many men, too many people, in this thread making too many problems. And not much love to go round. It’s making this a thread of confusion!
Posted on 9/20/24 at 11:18 am to Suntiger
Let’s make this a hurricane of love thread
Posted on 9/20/24 at 11:19 am to Thib-a-doe Tiger
quote:
That's quite a bit west of the runs I saw yesterday, and much closer to where Francine hit
Nice wish cast baw!!!
Posted on 9/20/24 at 11:29 am to Tiger Ryno
This is going to be one of those things where the GFS and other models have a hard on for the CAG to spin something up, but then the models just push it back and back until it poofs or goes into Mexico isn't it?
I vaguely remember the GFS having a hard on for CAG stuff.
12z GFS has it go right up the poop shoot of coastal MS
I vaguely remember the GFS having a hard on for CAG stuff.
12z GFS has it go right up the poop shoot of coastal MS

This post was edited on 9/20/24 at 11:30 am
Posted on 9/20/24 at 11:41 am to tiger91
I ended up canceling mine to Orange Beach it was for Thurs 26th-Monday. I wanted no part of being on the road or the beach while something is out there brewing like this.
Posted on 9/20/24 at 11:47 am to gaetti15
GFS with Friday night / Saturday morning timing for landfall. That is about 24 hours earlier than the run 6 hours ago. Biloxi location.
The ICON has a Thursday night landfall but near Destin.
Canadian CMC shows Saturday afternoon and Vermilion Bay.
But at this point with no center position to initialize the models, who knows when or where landfall will be.
The ICON has a Thursday night landfall but near Destin.
Canadian CMC shows Saturday afternoon and Vermilion Bay.
But at this point with no center position to initialize the models, who knows when or where landfall will be.
This post was edited on 9/20/24 at 11:52 am
Posted on 9/20/24 at 11:49 am to Tiger Ryno
quote:
quote:
That's quite a bit west of the runs I saw yesterday, and much closer to where Francine hit
Nice wish cast baw!!!
For the life of me, I'll never understand what the OT thinks wishcasting is.
Posted on 9/20/24 at 12:00 pm to Thib-a-doe Tiger
quote:
If I tell y’all the moon is made of cheese, get the crackers!
everyone knows the moon is made of spare ribs
Posted on 9/20/24 at 12:03 pm to Mr. Hangover
I like how this graphic shows it deciding to tap dance around Louisiana then it decides to tap dance on Bama+Miss like nope I'm not leaving.
Posted on 9/20/24 at 12:04 pm to Thracken13
12z Model Round Up::
Canadian next Saturday Afternoon:
GFS:
GFS Ensembles:
Canadian next Saturday Afternoon:

GFS:

GFS Ensembles:

Posted on 9/20/24 at 12:06 pm to gaetti15
quote:
This is going to be one of those things where the GFS and other models have a hard on for the CAG to spin something up, but then the models just push it back and back until it poofs or goes into Mexico isn't it?
I’ll be fine with that. I’m supposed to be on vacation next weekend and really don’t want to be at work on storm duty.
Posted on 9/20/24 at 12:08 pm to lsugolfredman
How accurate have yall found Mike's Weather Page on facebook? The trends given all the data definitely seem like its going straight north or possibly even a bit northwest, but he has consistently implied (while giving himself outs that he is "not predicting it") that it would go into central/south Florida.
Posted on 9/20/24 at 12:09 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
For the life of me, I'll never understand what the OT thinks wishcasting is.
It's when you comment on a model that someone doesn't like.
Posted on 9/20/24 at 12:11 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
How accurate have yall found Mike's Weather Page on facebook? The trends given all the data definitely seem like its going straight north or possibly even a bit northwest, but he has consistently implied (while giving himself outs that he is "not predicting it") that it would go into central/south Florida.
He reposts content from spaghetti models and spins up the Facebook crowd.
Why is is so hard to follow WDSU or Fox 8 weather pages if you want updates?
Posted on 9/20/24 at 12:13 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
How accurate have yall found Mike's Weather Page on facebook? The trends given all the data definitely seem like its going straight north or possibly even a bit northwest, but he has consistently implied (while giving himself outs that he is "not predicting it") that it would go into central/south Florida.
Mike is good, he's been doing it a long time.
If you're going to forecast this system right now the most likely track is to the east, which is pretty much everyone's thinking. Models have been pretty consistent on the front that would push it East.
Posted on 9/20/24 at 12:14 pm to GeauxLSUGRL
Was curious as to what you did. We’d leave Monday and come home Friday or Saturday. Our issue is that if anything does come our way, he is the one who helps his mom and dad take care of all of the things at their house as well as ours. I’m not so much worried about ours as opposed to them being upset that he’s not there to help them.
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