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Started By
Message
re: Helene - Recovery Begins...Devastating Flash Flooding in Western NC and Eastern TN
Posted on 9/26/24 at 3:50 am to FLBooGoTigs1
Posted on 9/26/24 at 3:50 am to FLBooGoTigs1
quote:4 am central time; 5 am eastern.
was asking because I haven't seen the 4 am update
2
Posted on 9/26/24 at 3:58 am to otowntiger
4am update is out. Explicit forecasts is 115mph but there is 6 hours from that forecast point to actually landfall and they suggest it will continue to strength into landfall.
Posted on 9/26/24 at 3:59 am to otowntiger
(no message)
This post was edited on 9/26/24 at 4:00 am
Posted on 9/26/24 at 4:14 am to slackster
Please someone explain how this hasn’t made landfall yet, it’s early Thursday morning, but by tomorrow afternoon it’s in Tennessee?
Posted on 9/26/24 at 4:16 am to slackster
Just curious, when they are measuring wind speed on these storms what elevation do they get their readings from?
Posted on 9/26/24 at 4:20 am to tilco
Just waking up here in Tampa, its not even raining outside.
Posted on 9/26/24 at 4:22 am to tilco
quote:
curious, when they are measuring wind speed on these storms what elevation do they get their readings from?
They’re estimating wind speeds at 33 feet off the ground, but they fly through the storm around 10,000 feet.
Posted on 9/26/24 at 4:27 am to slackster
Gotcha. She’s not moving near as fast as they thought she would right?
Posted on 9/26/24 at 4:28 am to slackster
Pressure down to 963 mb on the last recon pass. Starting to cook
Posted on 9/26/24 at 4:30 am to tilco
quote:
Gotcha. She’s not moving near as fast as they thought she would right?
She’s doing what was expected from a speed and location standpoint.
Posted on 9/26/24 at 4:31 am to ladyluckUGA
quote:
Please someone explain how this hasn’t made landfall yet, it’s early Thursday morning, but by tomorrow afternoon it’s in Tennessee?
It’s about to get on its horse.
Posted on 9/26/24 at 4:43 am to Paedin
quote:
Just waking up here in Tampa, its not even raining outside.
It's coming. Heavy rain here in SWFL.
Posted on 9/26/24 at 4:58 am to liz18lsu
We're getting rain bands from it all the way up in Augusta, GA.
Posted on 9/26/24 at 5:13 am to slackster
quote:
4am update is out. Explicit forecasts is 115mph but there is 6 hours from that forecast point to actually landfall and they suggest it will continue to strength into landfall.
It seems like NOAA has always been on the strong side of the average of the models, and maybe they know what they are doing. For the 2AM spaghetti models you can go to the link below (Tropical Tidbits). I'm trying to show the image here too but that's not working in the preview. There are only 3 of the 15 or so models that have it making Cat. 3, and a low Cat. 3 at that. NOAA is showing the worst case of the modeling well before landfall. The spaghetti models used to have some in the Cat. 4 range so they have backed off some.
Tropical Tidbits 2AM spaghetti models
I have friends with houses on Alligator Point and St. Teresa and my house isn't too far north of that, though I'm a bit less vulnerable to storm surge. They aren't there now, obviously, and I'm not even in the country so it will be a waiting game. Maybe it's best for NOAA to be cautious to keep fools from riding it out. Or maybe they really do know better. The proof is coming soon.
Posted on 9/26/24 at 5:14 am to Tigris
quote:
The spaghetti models used to have some in the Cat. 4 range so they have backed off some.
HMON, HWRF, HAFS-A, HAFS-B all have this as a strong cat 4 as of of the 00z update.
This post was edited on 9/26/24 at 5:15 am
Posted on 9/26/24 at 5:16 am to liz18lsu
This next band will get to me at 7:30-8:00, EST. We're ready. 
Posted on 9/26/24 at 5:20 am to joshnorris14
quote:
have this as a strong cat 4 as of of the 00z update.
I am seeing 132mph, with 160 gusts when it is about 25 miles SE of St. George Island. That's a monster.
Posted on 9/26/24 at 5:20 am to Bobby OG Johnson
Posted on 9/26/24 at 5:21 am to Tigris
quote:
Alligator Point
Would not want to be there when it hits. Will be the first place they fly the news cameras over on Friday.
Posted on 9/26/24 at 5:29 am to RummelTiger
quote:
lol…so do you just lurk and see what people are posting and then strike with a vague one liner?
No
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