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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 8/23/17 at 10:46 pm to rds dc
Storm 2k saying recon found TS force winds tonight.
Posted on 8/23/17 at 10:47 pm to rds dc
quote:
Bombs away...
I don't know if to be worried, or assume the storm is no longer relevant and to stop checking this thread
Posted on 8/23/17 at 10:48 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
Intensifying faster.....I think.
Posted on 8/23/17 at 10:48 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
GFS is "bombing" Harvey out, suggesting the potential for rapid intesification.
Posted on 8/23/17 at 10:49 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
Was thinking the exact same thing... I'm in Houston and really do not want to see a repeat of Allison.
Posted on 8/23/17 at 10:49 pm to OldSouth
quote:
Intensifying faster.....I think.
Wish I knew what affects that would have on its direction of travel, if any
Posted on 8/23/17 at 10:54 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
quote:
Wish I knew what affects that would have on its direction of travel, if any
Oh that's all? Here, this clears it right up. No need to thank me:
Posted on 8/23/17 at 10:57 pm to OldSouth
The fact that most those lines were pointed at La this morning and now point towards Mexico should be comforting but it aint. As quickly as they did a 180, id bet they can come back
Posted on 8/23/17 at 11:00 pm to Duke
quote:
GFS is "bombing" Harvey out, suggesting the potential for rapid intesification.
The GFS has trended hard to the HWRF/HMON thinking over the last two runs. However, we have seen this movie before, everyone falls in line but the Euro and the Euro ends up being right. The 00z Euro tonight should set the table given the amount of recon data that has been pushed into the models today.
Posted on 8/23/17 at 11:01 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
That's the real question. When will they have a solid feel on where it's going and how long it's staying
Posted on 8/23/17 at 11:02 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
quote:
As quickly as they did a 180, id bet they can come back
I'm with ya. At this point, id be shocked if they stayed there.
Posted on 8/23/17 at 11:02 pm to jlntiger
GFS has Harvey going from a TD to a Cat 3 in 24 hours. If that happens a lot of people in Texas are going to be caught off guard
Posted on 8/23/17 at 11:04 pm to rds dc
quote:
the amount of recon data that has been pushed into the models today.
Will recon data be fed into the models tonight or in the morning?
Thanks for sharing your expertise by the way.
Posted on 8/23/17 at 11:06 pm to rds dc
I saw this on the 10pm report, how much further east is this than they expected?
NOAA
quote:
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft suggest that Harvey's structure has consolidated a little bit, with the pressure falling to 1002 mb and the radius of maximum winds shrinking to 60 n mi. However, there have been no reliable reports of winds indicating that the cyclone has reached tropical-storm strength, and the convective cloud pattern remains ragged. Based on these data, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. Perhaps the most significant finding of the aircraft is that the center was to the east of the previous advisory position.
NOAA
Posted on 8/23/17 at 11:06 pm to OldSouth
quote:
Will recon data be fed into the models tonight or in the morning?
Thanks for sharing your expertise by the way.
The GFS now gets all the recon data, it used to only get certain kinds, and it is cycled into the data assimilation process as soon as it is ready. So we will probably see a steady stream of it into the models as long as recon is flying.
Posted on 8/23/17 at 11:08 pm to rds dc
Models aside, give us a guess Do you think this thing intensifies like some are saying?
This post was edited on 8/23/17 at 11:15 pm
Posted on 8/23/17 at 11:14 pm to Ponchy Tiger
It's a TS again
Posted on 8/23/17 at 11:16 pm to rds dc
00z is back east faster than 18z, Houston is pushing 30" of rain by the morning of the 30th.
Posted on 8/23/17 at 11:17 pm to OldSouth
Has the projected track shifted to the East some?
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