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re: Harvey ***Catastrophic Flooding Event***

Posted on 8/23/17 at 8:57 pm to
Posted by Nawlens Gator
louisiana
Member since Sep 2005
5963 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 8:57 pm to

quote:

flying from BR to Houston Sunday afternoon


Don't do it!



Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
178246 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 9:02 pm to
quote:

So how screwed am I for flying from BR to Houston Sunday afternoon?


Lol you fly United
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21626 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 9:13 pm to
GOES16 loop from earlier today

Posted by TulaneUVA
Member since Jun 2005
26236 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 9:17 pm to
What's the deal with the catastrophic flooding? What shows the potential rain fall?
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21626 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 9:22 pm to
quote:

Rds I posted this LINK to the harris county flood warning system a few pages back. Might be useful to add to the OP for the houston folks who don't already know about i


Will do.
Posted by TigerStripes06
SWLA
Member since Sep 2006
30032 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 9:27 pm to
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21626 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 9:30 pm to
Houston...

Posted by tLSU
Member since Oct 2007
8690 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 9:31 pm to
Every GFS run looks better and better for LA.
Posted by Sparkplug#1
Member since May 2013
7352 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 9:32 pm to
Still plenty of beer in the back.
Posted by TulaneUVA
Member since Jun 2005
26236 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 9:32 pm to
That's disturbing
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 9:33 pm to
quote:

Anyone have wind direction predictions for Bay Saint Louis, Ms for the rest of this event?


It's a low, so the flow is counter clockwise.

So if it is directly south of you and close enough to interact, winds are out of the east. Due west of you? Winds from the south. So on and so forth.

So it would be an issue of it approached from the SW. With the direction dependant on the exact approach angle.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21626 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 9:36 pm to
Pressure is dropping but winds haven't really responded. Harvey is still getting sheared and isn't vertically stacked , so any strengthening should be slow.

Posted by TulaneUVA
Member since Jun 2005
26236 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 9:37 pm to
Shearing is good right?
Posted by Pepperidge
Slidell
Member since Apr 2011
4412 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 9:37 pm to
quote:

my folks are at Jordan river


Maybe someone can give us an educated answer.


Just need to know if we need to go move everything underneath the camp(jet skis, lawn equipment etc.) to higher ground or upstairs where possible...

It's a lot of work to do if you don't have to.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 9:45 pm to
Shearing hampers organization, so it's good news in terms of wind damage and surge.
Posted by TulaneUVA
Member since Jun 2005
26236 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 9:45 pm to
Which regret is worse: the regret of wasting time doing that for a few hours or the regret of not doing and all that shite getting wrecked?
Posted by TulaneUVA
Member since Jun 2005
26236 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 9:46 pm to
But nada in terms of rain totals?
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14557 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 9:48 pm to
It also looks like he's eating a bit of dry air -which can, and eventually will, change. But that is good for now to keep him from deepening quickly.

This post was edited on 8/23/17 at 9:50 pm
Posted by LSUfanNkaty
LC, Louisiana
Member since Jan 2015
11967 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 9:49 pm to
I don't wanna brag, but I went to Costco Tuesday morning and stocked up haha. My wife said I was crazy... "who's the dummy now"
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 9:50 pm to
That's a much harder question to answer. Size of the system, where the banding sets up, ect. A more organized storm would at least give you a better notion of just where the heaviest rain will fall. A disorganized system may have displaced precipitation.

Can't really answer that yet, but the good side to this is less wind and surge to back up drainage ways. So even if Houston were to get 20" of rain, better to have it with less surge to back up your drainage.
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