re: Harvey ***Catastrophic Flooding Event***

I hope it's the euro that changes.

From a meteorologist I follow on Facebook, Larry Cosgrove

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The suddenly active tropics are showing two centers of interest.Invest 92L is starting to congeal east of Florida. This system has a fair chance of organizing to the point where it could attain named storm status, and a track up along the Eastern Seaboard cannot entirely be ruled out. But it is the diffuse looking Tropical Depression Harvey in the southern Gulf of Mexico which is creating the lion's share of "buzz" in weather circles. Harvey is drifting slowly northwest over very warm water and into a weakness which should create lessened vertical shear. I thought that the 12KM NAM at 18z did a fair job in handling this system with respect to track and strength. But the limited expanse of the cloudiness and thunderstorms shown by the model does not jive with its upper air environment, which should enable growth or at least maintain its coverage of convection. Something like the 12z GFS, ECMWF and UKMET versions have shown, with perhaps an allowance for a westward jog into the San Antonio TX metro this weekend. That said, there are two mesoscale shortwaves which look to crack the ridge complex over the south central U.S. You can see one of these discontinuities very easily on surface wind and 700MB UVV charts. If an MCS does develop over the Heartland, the tropical and cold core disturbance could undergo a partial phasing on Sunday. This is the reason why the European model scenario of a quick hit of torrential rain in N TX by the middle of next week cannot be disregarded. The more likely threat is for Harvey to attain Category 2 hurricane status, jerk inland then eastward. Keep in mind that as tough as the ECMWF and GFS platforms are on Houston, the English scheme would prove to be a debacle, with anywhere from 3 to 4 FEET of water in MOST of the Bayou City metro area. It will take until the 12z Thursday runs to know for sure, but anytime you get a slowing tropical cyclone plus frontal structure set-up, with an added shortwave at 500MB thrown in for good measure, torrential rainfall and severe thunderstorm problems are a virtual certainty. And when the entire system starts to lift out of SE TX on early Thursday morning, risks for excessive precipitation will spread into LA/AR and then into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. In summary, you must watch and wait for weather watches and warnings from Friday through next Wednesday. And the 92L threat for the East Coast cities, while much less than Harvey, is very real and needs to be monitored.

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These models suck Yall put too much faith into this

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It's not about the end result, it's about the process.

Trust the process.

How do you have a camp on the beach that can't sustain 50 mph winds?

Anyone have wind direction predictions for Bay Saint Louis, Ms for the rest of this event?

Not so worried about wind speed as much as direction...

My Father in laws place is on Bayou Lacroix and any long term wind event out of the Southeast has a tendency to pile water up into his area and causes tidal flooding

thanks for any info you can give me.

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My Father in laws place is on Bayou Lacroix and any long term wind event out of the Southeast has a tendency to pile water up into his area and causes tidal flooding

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my folks are at Jordan river

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You call that living?

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no, I call it camping at the camp

frick that...

it's a camp not the Taj Mahal
all camps are temporary at best

So how screwed am I for flying from BR to Houston Sunday afternoon?