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Started By
Message
re: Francine - Landfall in Terrebonne Parish as CAT 2 100 mph
Posted on 8/31/24 at 1:34 am to The Boat
Posted on 8/31/24 at 1:34 am to The Boat
quote:
He was talking about potential October systems in a video recently
Of course! Advanced, long range forecasting is the key to the best attention-grabbing thumbnails.
2
Posted on 8/31/24 at 8:11 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Of course! Advanced, long range forecasting is the key to the best attention-grabbing thumbnails.
It depends on the method:
Computer Science
Crystal Ball
Tarot Cards
Examining the end trail of pigs
Or my favorite just pull something out of your arse that grabs a few extra YouTube views increasing your CPM and subscriber count
This post was edited on 8/31/24 at 8:14 am
Posted on 8/31/24 at 8:25 am to rds dc
quote:
The models struggle with this setup, but I am surprised that the NHC dropped % from 50 to 40. Not much has changed since yesterday; this will probably be slow to develop, and the slower, the better, as that could force it into Mexico before having a chance to turn north.
The NHC is back to 50%, but nothing has really changed. The global models are still trying to develop this down the road, but there is still a large cluster of ensembles that don't develop this and/or drive it into CA/Mexico.
Posted on 8/31/24 at 8:26 am to Tarps99
quote:Autocorrect simply doesn’t do barbaric terms used in the context of archaic mysticism very well.
Examining the end trail of pigs
Posted on 8/31/24 at 8:51 am to rds dc
The GFS model on Levi’s site is all over the place.
In the last few runs, we’ve seen a serious hurricane in south Louisiana, landfall around Mobile, a hurricane in the Florida Panhandle, a nightmare hurricane for Houston, plowing into Mexico with no US interaction, a much smaller storm that goes into Mexico and barely into the TX border, and now a storm that skirts along the Texas coast before going into SWLA.
This is essentially a 1000 mile radius with serious fluctuations each run.
In the last few runs, we’ve seen a serious hurricane in south Louisiana, landfall around Mobile, a hurricane in the Florida Panhandle, a nightmare hurricane for Houston, plowing into Mexico with no US interaction, a much smaller storm that goes into Mexico and barely into the TX border, and now a storm that skirts along the Texas coast before going into SWLA.
This is essentially a 1000 mile radius with serious fluctuations each run.
Posted on 8/31/24 at 9:06 am to Keys Open Doors
quote:
n the last few runs, we’ve seen a serious hurricane in south Louisiana, landfall around Mobile, a hurricane in the Florida Panhandle, a nightmare hurricane for Houston, plowing into Mexico with no US interaction, a much smaller storm that goes into Mexico and barely into the TX border, and now a storm that skirts along the Texas coast before going into SWLA. This is essentially a 1000 mile radius with serious fluctuations each run.
Many such cases
Posted on 8/31/24 at 9:10 am to Tarps99
Don’t forget the most reliable source:
Posted on 8/31/24 at 9:12 am to Keys Open Doors
quote:
The GFS model on Levi’s site is all over the place.
In the last few runs, we’ve seen a serious hurricane in south Louisiana, landfall around Mobile, a hurricane in the Florida Panhandle, a nightmare hurricane for Houston, plowing into Mexico with no US interaction, a much smaller storm that goes into Mexico and barely into the TX border, and now a storm that skirts along the Texas coast before going into SWLA.
This is essentially a 1000-mile radius with severe fluctuations each run.
By Day 7, there is a lot of uncertainty around the strength of a potential system and the strength/timing of a potential cool front. A more organized system won't need as strong of a cool front to turn it north. A weaker system might not feel the northward pull and continue westward into Mexico.
Posted on 8/31/24 at 9:18 am to LegendInMyMind
The latest GFS run trolls the frick out of Louisiana
“I’m gonna harmlessly go into Mexico as a TS LOL JK major hurricane into Lake Charles”
[img]blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/7848d12e-7ab7-4c42-838e-a11010552f44[/img]
Dammit why won’t the create a gif work
“I’m gonna harmlessly go into Mexico as a TS LOL JK major hurricane into Lake Charles”
[img]blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/7848d12e-7ab7-4c42-838e-a11010552f44[/img]
Dammit why won’t the create a gif work
This post was edited on 8/31/24 at 9:23 am
Posted on 8/31/24 at 9:32 am to deltaland
For all the times for us to get a cold front in early September that would be just cruel. Thankfully it’s not likely to happen.
Posted on 8/31/24 at 9:40 am to deltaland
quote:
The latest GFS run trolls the frick out of Louisiana “I’m gonna harmlessly go into Mexico as a TS LOL JK major hurricane into Lake Charles”
Yeah I’m watching this thing and goin “oh nice” and then “oh frick” lol
Posted on 8/31/24 at 9:52 am to Roberteaux
The 300hr GFS can go frick itself. 
This post was edited on 8/31/24 at 9:53 am
Posted on 8/31/24 at 10:36 am to LSURoss
Posted on 8/31/24 at 10:39 am to The Boat
What a crazy track. No way it could intensify right at the coast ,run along the coast gaining in intensity.
Posted on 8/31/24 at 10:47 am to rds dc
The 12z ICON drops development.
Posted on 8/31/24 at 10:48 am to East Coast Band
quote:
What a crazy track. No way it could intensify right at the coast ,run along the coast gaining in intensity.
Sally says, "Hi-eeeeee!".
ETA: Ehhh....I take that back. Sally just sat and wobbled.
This post was edited on 8/31/24 at 10:51 am
Posted on 8/31/24 at 11:21 am to The Boat
That looks like a late September or early October track. Would be a big storm surge at that angle and probably produce above average number of tornados.
Posted on 8/31/24 at 11:26 am to rds dc
It's been very interesting to see the wild range of solutions in almost every model run. It's here! It's not! It's going here! Now it's going over there!
Posted on 8/31/24 at 12:21 pm to mightynine
Too many variables around formation, timing, and potential strength.
Better to watch the steering develop and then figure things out in more detail when we get a defined system.
Better to watch the steering develop and then figure things out in more detail when we get a defined system.
Posted on 8/31/24 at 12:34 pm to rds dc
quote:
The NHC is back to 50%, but nothing has really changed. The global models are still trying to develop this down the road, but there is still a large cluster of ensembles that don't develop this and/or drive it into CA/Mexico.
It all comes down to this... There is a high likelihood of a storm in the Gulf. Where it goes from there is up in the air. At least knowing that something will be in the Gulf allows some early prep. Get your radiator tuned up. Clean out gutters on the roof and drains on the road. Nothing wrong with getting ready, just in case.
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