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re: ESPN: If LSU wins out, they have an 89% chance of making playoffs
Posted on 10/19/18 at 12:35 pm to Powerman
Posted on 10/19/18 at 12:35 pm to Powerman
quote:
There are 3 undefeated teams in the AAU and none of those will sniff the playoff
They're also all in the same division, so they still have yet to play one-another. At most one survive.
quote:
Someone has to lose between NC State and Clemson this week
Yep
quote:
Ohio St, ND and Clemson are the only relevant schools that have a shot at being undefeated
Yep, especially with USC shellacking Colorado and LSU dismantling Georgia last week.
0
Posted on 10/19/18 at 12:37 pm to OldManRiver
100% chance alabama is in playoffs regardless of whether or not they lose to LSU or play in the SECCG.
Posted on 10/19/18 at 12:38 pm to tigerfan88
quote:
How the hell is it not 100%?
Basic probability.
Posted on 10/19/18 at 12:39 pm to LSUsmartass
LSU winning out absolutely means winning the SEC Championship as well as beating Alabama. That would have to mean being ranked above Alabama. If you don't put the SEC champion in the playoffs, there is serious corruption.
Posted on 10/19/18 at 12:39 pm to LSUsmartass
89% = 100%
Posted on 10/19/18 at 12:40 pm to ksayetiger
quote:
Why not texas?
Yeah, I guess Texas is another possibility. They would have wins over ranked USC, Oklahoma twice (probably), WVU, and Texas Tech.
Another slim possibility would be Michigan wining out, and a 12-1 Michigan and 11-1 Ohio State both going.
I think a 12-1 LSU is going over any of the above though.
Posted on 10/19/18 at 12:40 pm to LSUsmartass
They win out and its 100%.
Posted on 10/19/18 at 12:44 pm to CAD703X
quote:
100% chance alabama is in playoffs regardless of whether or not they lose to LSU or play in the SECCG.
If LSU wins out and Clemson, OSU, ND are undefeated Bama will be left out of the picture
Their out of conference schedule would bite them
Posted on 10/19/18 at 12:45 pm to LSUBoo
quote:
I think a 12-1 LSU is going over any of the above though.
An insane amount of value will be placed on the Bama win
Posted on 10/19/18 at 12:46 pm to LSUsmartass
If LSU wins out, it would actually be 100% in reality.
They have one of the toughest schedules in CFB, their only loss would have come in a close one against a pretty good team.. On the road..
They would have beat MIA & Auburn, when they were ranked in the top 10. Beat UGA who was ranked #2, beat Alabama who will be ranked #1, Texas A&M will likely be ranked then win the SEC title game, against a likely top 10 ranked team. An SEC team is getting into the CFB playoffs so if LSU wins out I can't think of a situation in which they wouldn't get in.
They have one of the toughest schedules in CFB, their only loss would have come in a close one against a pretty good team.. On the road..
They would have beat MIA & Auburn, when they were ranked in the top 10. Beat UGA who was ranked #2, beat Alabama who will be ranked #1, Texas A&M will likely be ranked then win the SEC title game, against a likely top 10 ranked team. An SEC team is getting into the CFB playoffs so if LSU wins out I can't think of a situation in which they wouldn't get in.
Posted on 10/19/18 at 12:52 pm to LSUsmartass
quote:
Honestly, I would argue if they win out and lose to Georgia in SECG they still deserve a spot with 2 losses
nah... the schedule isn't looking to be nearly as strong as some initially thought, Auburn & Miami kind of suck and the jury is still out on UGA.
Posted on 10/19/18 at 12:53 pm to Powerman
quote:
If LSU wins out and Clemson, OSU, ND are undefeated Bama will be left out of the picture
i want to believe that but history tells me otherwise.
Posted on 10/19/18 at 12:54 pm to CAD703X
quote:
100% chance alabama is in playoffs regardless of whether or not they lose to LSU or play in the SECCG.
Posted on 10/19/18 at 12:55 pm to OweO
quote:
They would have beat MIA & Auburn, when they were ranked in the top 10.
I hear what you are saying here, but the committee is going to view those teams at where they are "currently" ranked, not what they were ranked when we played them. Which, IMO, is fair.
Posted on 10/19/18 at 1:00 pm to memphis tiger
quote:
Although I still see a scenario that LSU wins out but gets excluded from the playoff in favor of a 1 loss (to LSU) Alabama. It would piss me off like nothing else, but would not surprise me.
If LSU wins the SEC with 1 loss and Bama finishes with 1 loss, its highly likely that Bama gets into the CFP....but it they would be a 2nd SEC team again like last year. With their schedule, a 12-1 LSU would be no worse than #2 in the final CFP rankings. Pac-12 and Big-12 are 2 most likely IMO to be left out. Ohio St, LSU, Clemson, Bama would be my guess for playoffs if LSU beats Bama
Posted on 10/19/18 at 1:01 pm to CAD703X
quote:
i want to believe that but history tells me otherwise.
If Bama would get in, it would be over ND, but if the Irish go undefeated, the win over Michigan and Stanford will likely get them in. If Bama has a 1 loss and it is to LSU, the argument will be. Bama lost to the toughest team on their schedule while ND beat Michigan & Stanford (both will likely be ranked in the top 15 at the end of the season) and beat VT, who was ranked at the time.
But with that said, Michigan is a different team today than they were in week 1. Shea Patterson didn't have it together yet.. And if they played again right now, I think Michigan beats them, but that's hypothetical so I can't see them being undefeated and not getting in.
Posted on 10/19/18 at 1:03 pm to OweO
if alabama doesn't make the SECCG the ESPN machine will be working overtime to build a case why they deserve to be in the playoffs for the THIRD TIME without winning the conference or the conference title.
Posted on 10/19/18 at 1:15 pm to LSUsmartass
quote:
The odds: The Tigers only have a 3 percent chance to win out, but if they do, there's an 89 percent chance they will reach the playoff.
60% of the time, it works all the time.
Posted on 10/19/18 at 1:19 pm to CAD703X
quote:
if alabama doesn't make the SECCG the ESPN machine will be working overtime to build a case why they deserve to be in the playoffs for the THIRD TIME without winning the conference or the conference title.
Yeah, but you have to also consider.. Notre Dame has the largest nationwide fanbase. If you are looking at it from a ratings point of view. The Southeast part of the US is the only part of the country where CFB is more popular than the NFL so that area is going to still watch the games with or without Alabama.. If you throw ND into it, then that will increase the amount of viewers nationwide.
The ideal playoff, as for as ratings are concerned is probably Bama, Clemson, ND and OSU..
Posted on 10/19/18 at 1:20 pm to LSUsmartass
"If"
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