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boxcarbarney
LSU Fan
Constantinople Street
Member since Jul 2007
16347 posts

Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Revises Model
quote:

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.

Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.
However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson is presenting drastically downgraded estimates, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as reported by New Scientist Wednesday.

Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000


From 500k to 20k dead? That's quite the swing.

Daily Wire


mceuph
LSU Fan
New Orleans, LA
Member since Dec 2005
613 posts

re: Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Revises Model
Well that de-escalated quickly...


High C
Houston Astros Fan
viewing the fall....
Member since Nov 2012
31409 posts

re: Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Revises Model
People SO want to believe these worst case scenarios.


RB10
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2010
35064 posts

re: Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Revises Model
Shocking. Truly.


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110
ZappBrannigan
LSU Fan
Member since Jun 2015
6301 posts

re: Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Revises Model
This is why you can't trust the Brits on medicine. They gave us antivaxxers. They take too long to revise models. But that accent... just makes them seem smarter.


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75
Odysseus32
LSU Fan
Boise, ID
Member since Dec 2009
3295 posts

re: Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Revises Model
quote:

People SO want to believe these worst case scenarios.


I'm sure there are some out there that truly have been wanting this to be doomsday because they prepped so heavily.

Myself? I wish this entire thing would go away. I gave up a job because I have asthma and could be really affected by this virus. Even if I was well prepped I think the human in me would come out and just be sad it was all happening.

This is one person's model. Just like I didn't believe the worst case scenario of 2.2 million Americans, I'm not gonna believe the best case scenario either. I think we will fall in the middle.


transcend
UTSA Fan
Austin, TX
Member since Aug 2013
2221 posts

re: Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Revises Model
I don't think most of you understand simple cause and effect


boxcarbarney
LSU Fan
Constantinople Street
Member since Jul 2007
16347 posts

re: Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Revises Model
quote:

Well that de-escalated quickly...


He reduced his predicted number 96%. If we use that same percentage for his U.S. prediction, that's 88k dead as opposed to the 2.2 million originally predicted. Quite a swing indeed.


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50
SabiDojo
South Alabama Fan
Open to any suggestions.
Member since Nov 2010
81809 posts

re: Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Revises Model
“We didn’t believe the Imperial College Report anyways.” -tOT


SloaneRanger
LSU Fan
Upper Hurstville
Member since Jan 2014
1103 posts

re: Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Revises Model
quote:

People SO want to believe these worst case scenarios.




We need to collect all these predictions and revisit them after all this is over. I predict that we will see that all of these predictions were way more doom and gloom than was warranted. We need to remember this, because many of these same people are insisting that our economy must be destroyed to prevent climate change.


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upgrayedd
Lamar Fan
Lifting at Tobin's house
Member since Mar 2013
103171 posts

re: Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Revises Model
WE STILL NEED TO HAVE THE CONVERSATION, Y'ALL!!!


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81
SirWinston
LSU Fan
PDX
Member since Jul 2014
51324 posts

re: Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Revises Model
quote:


People SO want to believe these worst case scenarios.




Same as the global warming cucks. I despise these self-important scientists and "intellectuals". They are conspiring to ruin what should be the greatest period in yuman history.
This post was edited on 3/26 at 2:27 pm


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74
DCtiger1
LSU Fan
Panama City Beach
Member since Jul 2009
4745 posts

re: Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Revises Model
Wait what??? This is OKtiger’s Bible!


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10
Lou Pai
LSU Fan
Member since Dec 2014
20399 posts
 Online 

re: Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Revises Model
quote:

I don't think most of you understand simple cause and effect


Why?


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10
Ronaldo Burgundiaz
Arkansas Fan
Surrounded by toilet paper
Member since Jan 2012
1646 posts

re: Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Revises Model
See the lockdowns worked! The government saved us!


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31
tketaco
Houston Astros Fan
SoHo Vatos
Member since Jan 2010
14557 posts

re: Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Revises Model
Orange Man still bad.


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33
yellowfin
Chicago Cubs Fan
Coastal Bar
Member since May 2006
93628 posts

re: Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Revises Model
I’m still going with the stay at home mom on Facebook’s predictions


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41
DomincDecoco
Avoiding Everything and Everyone
Member since Oct 2018
1817 posts

re: Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Revises Model
damn excel formulas


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10
Penrod
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2011
14431 posts

re: Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Revises Model
quote:

I think we will fall in the middle.

No we won’t. If you read Ferguson’s mea culpa he says 20,000 or maybe a lot less.


Ignignot
LSU Fan
Jort Country
Member since Mar 2009
16892 posts

re: Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Revises Model
wawaweewa is gonna ghost in about a month never to be heard of again, dude has doubled down on this effing thing


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