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Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Revises Model
Posted on 3/26/20 at 2:13 pm
Posted on 3/26/20 at 2:13 pm
quote:
Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.
Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve.
However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson is presenting drastically downgraded estimates, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as reported by New Scientist Wednesday.
Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000
From 500k to 20k dead? That's quite the swing.
Daily Wire
20
Posted on 3/26/20 at 2:17 pm to boxcarbarney
Well that de-escalated quickly...
Posted on 3/26/20 at 2:17 pm to boxcarbarney
People SO want to believe these worst case scenarios.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 2:18 pm to boxcarbarney
Shocking. Truly.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 2:19 pm to boxcarbarney
This is why you can't trust the Brits on medicine. They gave us antivaxxers. They take too long to revise models. But that accent... just makes them seem smarter.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 2:20 pm to High C
quote:
People SO want to believe these worst case scenarios.
I'm sure there are some out there that truly have been wanting this to be doomsday because they prepped so heavily.
Myself? I wish this entire thing would go away. I gave up a job because I have asthma and could be really affected by this virus. Even if I was well prepped I think the human in me would come out and just be sad it was all happening.
This is one person's model. Just like I didn't believe the worst case scenario of 2.2 million Americans, I'm not gonna believe the best case scenario either. I think we will fall in the middle.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 2:20 pm to boxcarbarney
I don't think most of you understand simple cause and effect
Posted on 3/26/20 at 2:21 pm to mceuph
quote:
Well that de-escalated quickly...
He reduced his predicted number 96%. If we use that same percentage for his U.S. prediction, that's 88k dead as opposed to the 2.2 million originally predicted. Quite a swing indeed.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 2:21 pm to boxcarbarney
“We didn’t believe the Imperial College Report anyways.” -tOT
Posted on 3/26/20 at 2:23 pm to High C
quote:
People SO want to believe these worst case scenarios.
We need to collect all these predictions and revisit them after all this is over. I predict that we will see that all of these predictions were way more doom and gloom than was warranted. We need to remember this, because many of these same people are insisting that our economy must be destroyed to prevent climate change.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 2:24 pm to boxcarbarney
WE STILL NEED TO HAVE THE CONVERSATION, Y'ALL!!!
Posted on 3/26/20 at 2:26 pm to High C
quote:
People SO want to believe these worst case scenarios.
Same as the global warming cucks. I despise these self-important scientists and "intellectuals". They are conspiring to ruin what should be the greatest period in yuman history.
This post was edited on 3/26/20 at 2:27 pm
Posted on 3/26/20 at 2:26 pm to boxcarbarney
Wait what??? This is OKtiger’s Bible!
Posted on 3/26/20 at 2:26 pm to transcend
quote:
I don't think most of you understand simple cause and effect
Why?
Posted on 3/26/20 at 2:28 pm to boxcarbarney
See the lockdowns worked! The government saved us!
Posted on 3/26/20 at 2:35 pm to boxcarbarney
Orange Man still bad.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 2:37 pm to boxcarbarney
I’m still going with the stay at home mom on Facebook’s predictions
Posted on 3/26/20 at 2:39 pm to boxcarbarney
damn excel formulas
Posted on 3/26/20 at 2:43 pm to Odysseus32
quote:
I think we will fall in the middle.
No we won’t. If you read Ferguson’s mea culpa he says 20,000 or maybe a lot less.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 2:47 pm to High C
wawaweewa is gonna ghost in about a month never to be heard of again, dude has doubled down on this effing thing
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