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Posted on 3/26/20 at 2:49 pm to boxcarbarney
He and his ilk also over-predicted the 2009 swine flu outbreak in the UK...predicting 65k deaths possible. Unfortunately they missed the mark by roughly 64,500
Posted on 3/26/20 at 2:49 pm to Odysseus32
quote:
I'm not gonna believe the best case scenario either. I think we will fall in the middle.
this scientist isn't switching his model to a best case scenario
this is him re-adjusting and putting his "fall in the middle" updated prediction
Posted on 3/26/20 at 2:49 pm to boxcarbarney
It’s not like this is a long term plan anyway. Corona virus isn’t going to just go away after a few months. They’re going to have to figure out some way in the next couple of months if not sooner to let people go about their lives while combating the virus.
They don’t even know if you can be infected twice. Once everyone goes back out, there will be a spike of new infections regardless.
They don’t even know if you can be infected twice. Once everyone goes back out, there will be a spike of new infections regardless.
This post was edited on 3/26/20 at 2:51 pm
Posted on 3/26/20 at 2:50 pm to Alt26
quote:
He and his ilk also over-predicted the 2009 swine flu outbreak in the UK...predicting 65k deaths possible. Unfortunately they missed the mark by roughly 64,500
Like I said earlier ITT: Shocker. Truly.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 2:51 pm to alajones
Get adequate test kits and quarantine the infected. Everyone else goes about their lives
Posted on 3/26/20 at 2:51 pm to SabiDojo
quote:
“We didn’t believe the Imperial College Report anyways.” -tOT
Looks like the OT was right.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 2:51 pm to boxcarbarney
What should we trust his revision? Scientists are the new celebrities - anything for attention.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 2:51 pm to SloaneRanger
quote:
because many of these same people are insisting that our economy must be destroyed to prevent climate change.
BOOM!!! I was about to post that.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 2:53 pm to boxcarbarney
I didn't read the article but does he revise the model because he has more information about the virus or did he revise it because of his suspected impacts from the social distancing and quarantine requirements implemented?
Posted on 3/26/20 at 2:54 pm to boxcarbarney
But hey we’re about to announce school’s out til August here in Alabama.
Maybe homeschooling my kids won’t be so bad if everything else opens up soon.
Maybe homeschooling my kids won’t be so bad if everything else opens up soon.
This post was edited on 3/26/20 at 2:55 pm
Posted on 3/26/20 at 2:55 pm to boxcarbarney
quote:
Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000
Well that (de)escalated quickly.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 2:58 pm to boxcarbarney
The media was constantly taking the numbers from worst case scenario models where nothing was done, and making it seem as though they were inevitable. That despite the drastic measures we've put in place.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 2:58 pm to icegator337
quote:
does he revise the model because he has more information about the virus or did he revise it because of his suspected impacts from the social distancing and quarantine requirements
Both, but the significant drop in the assumed mortality and increase in infectious ness cause the most drastic change, based on my reading.
Basically, it looks like we are way further along in the spread than was thought 1-2 weeks ago.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 2:58 pm to cable
quote:
Get adequate test kits and quarantine the infected. Everyone else goes about their lives
Really hard in a country our size. Adding to the problem is that half or more of the "infected" are asymptomatic.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 3:00 pm to SloaneRanger
quote:
Adding to the problem is that half or more of the "infected" are asymptomatic.
This also means we’ve been drastically overstating the potential negative health impact. It looks to be more like 70-80%.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 3:01 pm to Penrod
quote:
If you read Ferguson’s mea culpa he says 20,000 or maybe a lot less.
That number was for the UK. As boxcarbarney pointed out, using that same reduction might put his US number around 88,000. However, I don't see updated US numbers. Just a bunch of twitter threads bitching.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 3:01 pm to Penrod
double post
This post was edited on 3/26/20 at 3:02 pm
Posted on 3/26/20 at 3:05 pm to boxcarbarney
I listened to an interview with Neil Ferguson shortly after he put out the first results of his model. He said in the interview that the numbers his algorithm initially provided, the same numbers that were cited in the NY Times, etc.., were the roughest of rough estimates based on the data he was given, which was limited, and believed/hoped that in all likelihood they were going to be way higher than reality. He indicated in the report that the accuracy of the numbers was likely off but the media ignored this and ran with it. Said he was surprised it took off the way it did as he didn't know anyone knew who he was.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 3:08 pm to Monkeyboy
quote:Anything to sell a newspaper.
I listened to an interview with Neil Ferguson shortly after he put out the first results of his model. He said in the interview that the numbers his algorithm initially provided, the same numbers that were cited in the NY Times, etc.., were the roughest of rough estimates based on the data he was given, which was limited, and believed/hoped that in all likelihood they were going to be way higher than reality. He indicated in the report that the accuracy of the numbers was likely off but the media ignored this and ran with it. Said he was surprised it took off the way it did as he didn't know anyone knew who he was
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