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re: Delta Moves On...Cleanup Begins
Posted on 10/8/20 at 8:39 am to mightynine
Posted on 10/8/20 at 8:39 am to mightynine
I look at cones 72 hours out and gauge accuracy on whether the storm hits anywhere within that cone.
Doing that gives the nhc a wide margin of error.
Doing that gives the nhc a wide margin of error.
0
Posted on 10/8/20 at 8:39 am to sp22
quote:
On the NHC website where you can access all the graphics, discussion, etc there is an option for local products, and you can click on parts of the map and it will show forecasted winds. Right now BR says 25-35 sustained 45 gusts
Another suggestion to OP for the next storm
Link to NHC
(Along with times of updates as suggested yesterday)
Posted on 10/8/20 at 8:40 am to sp22
quote:
Anyone who wants to know what the current forecast is for their city can click on it on this map
So downvote away but on this map it’s still calling for 50-70 mph winds in BR. I thought the general consensus had been changed to gusts of 40?
Posted on 10/8/20 at 8:40 am to AstroTiger
Here's good site to look at that shows how unpredictable things are at this moment-
https://www.windy.com/
Once it is loaded slide the slider to the time that will put the storm close to you... THEN click on all three models at the lower right to see how different the models are seeing things right now.
https://www.windy.com/
Once it is loaded slide the slider to the time that will put the storm close to you... THEN click on all three models at the lower right to see how different the models are seeing things right now.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 8:40 am to Bigfishchoupique
quote:
Delta I don’t think Delta is going to be no more than a big thunderstorm by the time it makes it to the delta.
I agree...
Posted on 10/8/20 at 8:41 am to Ripley
I can't remember ever seeing a mature, Cat 2 hurricane which didn't have a well-defined, visible eye.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 8:41 am to LSU-MNCBABY
quote:
So downvote away but on this map it’s still calling for 50-70 mph winds in BR. I thought the general consensus had been changed to gusts of 40?
Stolen from SkySummit on Stormcast. Credit goes to him.
I can only see those winds playing out if the right biased ensembles from the GFS verify. We will know very shortly if those are correct.
This post was edited on 10/8/20 at 8:48 am
Posted on 10/8/20 at 8:41 am to AmosMosesAndTwins
quote:
AmosMosesAndTwins
How is construction coming on your facility?
Is it secure?
Posted on 10/8/20 at 8:42 am to jimbeam
If Lake Charles does take another direct hit, curious how many residents will pack it in and move to TX. Or rebuild. But I guess it depends on job availability too and how soon they are able to come back.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 8:42 am to LSU-MNCBABY
quote:
it’s still calling for 50-70 mph winds in BR. I thought the general consensus had been changed to gusts of 40?
On NHC I see 40 to 50 mph gusts... So I am not sure... Its 2020 so who flippin knows
Posted on 10/8/20 at 8:43 am to LSU-MNCBABY
The 58-73 or whatever is the maximum potential. There is a little dialog off to the right that shows forecasted winds
Posted on 10/8/20 at 8:43 am to LSURussian
quote:
can't remember ever seeing a mature, Cat 2 hurricane which didn't have a well-defined, visible eye.
They went through this on the weather channel a little while ago. The eye is definitely there it just has some cloud covering it up on the radar. When they show different scans it’s very visible.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 8:44 am to lsugolfredman
Pretty sure skysummit posts here, believe that is geauxmedic
Posted on 10/8/20 at 8:45 am to LSUsmartass
So I need a learning moment here Rds, Duke, etc. the 18z enesemble models show a slight nudge east compared to the 12z models. Am I seeing that correctly? What time does 18z equate to in BR time?
Posted on 10/8/20 at 8:46 am to lsugolfredman
Some folks will lose their collective minds if they shift back that far east.
Folks like me.
Folks like me.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 8:46 am to Cosmo
quote:
Read the NHC discussion
I feel like most people don’t realize that this is a thing and that it would probably answer 75% of their questions.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 8:47 am to LSUJML
JML Amos replied to me yesterday that their building should be ready in November ... I didn't ask and he didn't say anything about current progress point.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 8:47 am to Kingpenm3
Thanks.
Great site
Great site
Posted on 10/8/20 at 8:47 am to LSUsmartass
Delta looks like it's starting to wrap those big convective bursts around its center of circulation. Indicates some strengthening and probably will have us see the eye pop out in a few hours.
Ive also been terrible with calling strengthing phases with this one so, take this for what little it's worth.
Ive also been terrible with calling strengthing phases with this one so, take this for what little it's worth.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 8:48 am to Mudminnow
quote:
If Lake Charles does take another direct hit, curious how many residents will pack it in and move to TX. Or rebuild. But I guess it depends on job availability too and how soon they are able to come back.
I wonder what construction supplies are like after Laura then Sally?
Could that cause delays for people trying to rebuild?
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