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Started By
Message
re: Deep South winter storm and arctic outbreak - Jan. 20-23 timeframe
Posted on 1/16/25 at 4:05 pm to Govt Tide
Posted on 1/16/25 at 4:05 pm to Govt Tide
Just when you thought the Canadian model couldn't spit out a run as crazy as last night's 0z run it's 12z run today says hold my beer...
OH CANADA!!! (24 hour snowfall totals - valid 6:00 am CST next Wednesday)
Then there's your typical 1.00 to 1.50 inches of freezing rain in a swath from Appalachicola to Savannah to make your beach trip more memorable
12z Canadian freezing rain totals
As impressive as the snow and ice totals are on this run the staying power of the arctic air mass being modeled is just as impressive.
Montgomery, for example, goes below 30 degrees around 6 pm THIS SUNDAY night and doesn't make it back to 30 again until 6 pm NEXT SATURDAY night! That's 144 straight hours below 30 degrees!
Not only that but it drops below 23 degrees at the height of the snowstorm Tuesday and doesn't make it back up to 23 degrees for nearly 90 consecutive hours!!
Just your typical 1.00 to 1.25 inches of freezing rain in a swath from Appalachicola to Savannah
OH CANADA!!! (24 hour snowfall totals - valid 6:00 am CST next Wednesday)
Then there's your typical 1.00 to 1.50 inches of freezing rain in a swath from Appalachicola to Savannah to make your beach trip more memorable
12z Canadian freezing rain totals
As impressive as the snow and ice totals are on this run the staying power of the arctic air mass being modeled is just as impressive.
Montgomery, for example, goes below 30 degrees around 6 pm THIS SUNDAY night and doesn't make it back to 30 again until 6 pm NEXT SATURDAY night! That's 144 straight hours below 30 degrees!
Not only that but it drops below 23 degrees at the height of the snowstorm Tuesday and doesn't make it back up to 23 degrees for nearly 90 consecutive hours!!
Just your typical 1.00 to 1.25 inches of freezing rain in a swath from Appalachicola to Savannah
This post was edited on 1/16/25 at 4:32 pm
3
Posted on 1/16/25 at 4:09 pm to Govt Tide
GFS is back showing a big snow event from Texas gulf coast thru Louisiana gulf coast
Posted on 1/16/25 at 4:11 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
GFS OPERATIONAL IS BACK IN THE GAME BAWS 
edit:
Multiple inches of snow for SLA
edit:
Multiple inches of snow for SLA
This post was edited on 1/16/25 at 4:14 pm
Posted on 1/16/25 at 4:13 pm to DVinBR
Thread gonna be back to warp speed.
Posted on 1/16/25 at 4:15 pm to DVinBR
quote:
GFS OPERATIONAL IS BACK IN THE GAME BAWS
Welcome to Ice Bayou...
Posted on 1/16/25 at 4:18 pm to Tarps99
We so back baws 
Posted on 1/16/25 at 4:22 pm to jaytothen
You know what, hell yea.
Bout to purchase some waterproof gloves for the kiddo. Oven mits didn’t hold up 7 years ago
Bout to purchase some waterproof gloves for the kiddo. Oven mits didn’t hold up 7 years ago
Posted on 1/16/25 at 4:23 pm to jaytothen
GFS back with a vengeance
This post was edited on 1/16/25 at 4:25 pm
Posted on 1/16/25 at 4:28 pm to rds dc
quote:
The problem is that the overall setup is favorable for cold but not necessarily winter weather. There is still plenty of time for things to trend in the right direction, but it's hard to get enough room for a winter storm at the base of a large positive tilted longwave trough.
Trends have been positive today for S. Louisiana and over into Texas.
Posted on 1/16/25 at 4:32 pm to rds dc
quote:
Trends have been positive today for S. Louisiana and over into Texas.
quote:
rds dc
We about to experience a blizzard
Posted on 1/16/25 at 4:35 pm to jaytothen
quote:
We so back baws
Next run will flip and we will be in short sleeve and flip flop weather all next week.
Posted on 1/16/25 at 4:38 pm to PJinAtl
I need the NOLA public education explanation(more pictures and crayons) - LOL
Posted on 1/16/25 at 4:44 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Posted on 1/16/25 at 4:47 pm to rds dc
quote:us Cenla folks may miss it cause too far north. Damn.
Trends have been positive today for S. Louisiana and
Posted on 1/16/25 at 4:53 pm to Tarps99
quote:
Next run will flip and we will be in short sleeve and flip flop weather all next week.
Posted on 1/16/25 at 4:54 pm to FrankandBeans
quote:
WAFB uses it too and they’re contractually required to do so.
Which is fricking laughable and has no place in weather forecasting. Proprietary storm tracking software? Sure. Proprietary model programs with a contract binding you to use it in your public-facing forecasting over other models? Nah. They aren't the only ones who use it, either.
Posted on 1/16/25 at 4:57 pm to Govt Tide
quote:
As impressive as the snow and ice totals are on this run the staying power of the arctic air mass being modeled is just as impressive.
Montgomery, for example, goes below 30 degrees around 6 pm THIS SUNDAY night and doesn't make it back to 30 again until 6 pm NEXT SATURDAY night! That's 144 straight hours below 30 degrees!
Not only that but it drops below 23 degrees at the height of the snowstorm Tuesday and doesn't make it back up to 23 degrees for nearly 90 consecutive hours!!
You have to have that massive amount of snow on the ground to get to those numbers and that duration. The model creates a feedback loop and the temps react to it.
Posted on 1/16/25 at 5:08 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Which is fricking laughable and has no place in weather forecasting. Proprietary storm tracking software? Sure. Proprietary model programs with a contract binding you to use it in your public-facing forecasting over other models? Nah. They aren't the only ones who use it, either
For Hurricane Francine, stations here but especially New Orleans, overhyped the crap out of the GRAF to support a direct hit to New Orleans. It was such clickbait and an outlier to every other model..it went against the NHC forecast as well. Shameful.
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