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re: Crawfishing Selling Clowns

Posted on 1/28/24 at 8:21 pm to
Posted by Classy Doge
Member since Nov 2021
3006 posts
Posted on 1/28/24 at 8:21 pm to
quote:

This board cracks me up when it comes to crawfish prices. It’s like supply and demand principles of economic somehow should be irrelevant with crawfish

They really don't have a clue how it works with crawfish for sure. Went run deepwater in Belle River this morning in an airboat and we caught 4 sacks but the day was shortened by a couple of mechanical issues.

The river is forecast to come up and already commercial fisherman are itching to get their runs in and baited while the price is still at an all time high. We saw some bigger black shelled crawfish that we had to throw back because the tailmeat is empty and that indicates that they are still emerging and things are looking up if the rains continue and river stages keep rising and hold. The shedded ones we caught and sacked were pretty small overall.

My buyer says that the past few days the ponds he buys from picked up significantly but their catch was still severely low compared to normal times. I suspect the couple of warm days, heavy rains and all the lightning/thunder brought some more out of their burrows to feed. There are rumblings that the price to farmers and fishermen could drop a couple dollars if the catch stays up.
This post was edited on 1/28/24 at 8:28 pm
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
119556 posts
Posted on 1/28/24 at 9:37 pm to
quote:

$12.99 a lb


I like boiled crawfish but not that much.
Posted by LSUFanHouston
NOLA
Member since Jul 2009
37320 posts
Posted on 1/28/24 at 9:44 pm to
So is the big inflation at the producer level or the restaurant level?

If the big profits going back to producer I’m not as upset.

But I’ve seen issues in shrimp industry where the producers get squeezed
Posted by scott8811
Ratchet City, LA
Member since Oct 2014
11469 posts
Posted on 1/28/24 at 9:48 pm to
Man...I love my boiled crawfish in the spring...but I ain't giving into that bullshite
Posted by yellowfin
Coastal Bar
Member since May 2006
97819 posts
Posted on 1/28/24 at 9:54 pm to
There are no big profits right now. Farmer that would normally be catching 100 sacks at 2.50 a pound right now is catching 8 sacks at $8.

Restaurants are the same, not able to sell enough volume to make money because of supply shortage

Most restaurants around here that only open during crawfish season are still closed
Posted by Saunson69
Member since May 2023
2024 posts
Posted on 1/28/24 at 9:55 pm to
Austin and Houston and DFW prices have always been wayyy over Louisiana. I never saw under $7 to $8 a pound in Houston last year whereas in Shreveport, Shanes Shavers have for $3.50 at end of season. Maybe even $3.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
55499 posts
Posted on 1/28/24 at 10:30 pm to
quote:

So is the big inflation at the producer level or the restaurant level?

It is a supply problem.
Posted by SWLA92
SWLA
Member since Feb 2015
2099 posts
Posted on 1/28/24 at 10:46 pm to
Yeah inflation doesn’t work in the crawfish industry to a certain extent. Producers have dealt with fuel and labor rises but with not much reflection on the price. Prices have actually lowered the past 3 years for the producer. No one is getting rich off of high dollar crawfish. I can’t speak for the restaurants but as a producer I’m barely breaking even. This is strictly a supply issue right now.
This post was edited on 1/28/24 at 11:18 pm
Posted by Classy Doge
Member since Nov 2021
3006 posts
Posted on 1/28/24 at 10:50 pm to
quote:

So is the big inflation at the producer level or the restaurant level?

All levels of the crawfish supply chain are feeling the effects of inflation. The cost for labor, bait, fuel & trapping supplies as well as energy for pumping have been rising dramatically for years. Trucking costs, increased equipment costs, wages for laborers & restaurant workers and other related expenses have increased for wholesalers and retailers.

I assume by "big inflation" you mean a markup on the market price of live or boiled crawfish. Producers are getting $8-$9 per pound recently. But volume is extremely limited and reduces cashflow since there is not much poundage at all to sell this season.

The way that this industry works is that after leaving the farmer or fishermen, every hand that a sack goes through to reach the next destination of the supply chain, a markup occurs.

This markup generally remains the same whether crawfish is $2/lb or $8/lb. These transporters, middlemen and wholesalers retain the same margins regardless of changes to market price. So their profit margins remain the same but still suffer due to the low volume being harvested currently.

Once crawfish reaches their final destinations at restaurants and seafood markets, they are once again marked up. Markups are smaller if sold live and higher if sold boiled to cover the additional expenses incurred at that level of distribution. Once again their margins generally remain the same despite pricing volatility.
quote:

But I’ve seen issues in shrimp industry where the producers get squeezed

That's the thing that most folks don't actually understand in that haulers, distributors, retailers and restaurants usually make the same and in some cases more per every pound of crawfish that passes through their hands.

Producers on the other hand are left at the mercy of fluctuating prices. And with no ability to markup their catch, most of the time they are the only ones to have the decreased revenue when prices are dropped and catch volumes remain the same, whether the price changes were justified by market conditions or not.

As a result, they are more affected than the downstream levels of crawfish distribution by prices decreasing due to the decisions of the crawfish cartel that sets the price.
quote:

If the big profits going back to producer I’m not as upset

There are no big profits currently due to the drastically reduced catch despite the record price. Most producers are either not operating or perhaps breaking even for what it costs to operate in hopes that their catch comes up soon so they can make more than they're spending.

Many, myself included, are many thousands of dollars in the hole with limited prospects of breaking even this season due to loss of their crop and other conditions out of our control.

But to truthfully answer your question, no producers are benefiting from the "big inflation" perceived by your average uninformed consumer who bases their assumptions on the increased price of crawfish this season.

Hope this helps you to better understand the easiest explained dynamics of the crawfish market and the effects of prices on the industry supply chain.
This post was edited on 1/28/24 at 11:19 pm
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
55499 posts
Posted on 1/28/24 at 11:17 pm to
quote:

What other year has most of the state been in D4 drought for 6 months of the year?

quote:

2011.

I was curious and did some research/digging on the 2010-2012 drought. Here's what I found:

-Moderate Drought first developed in the state on the April 20, 2010 Drought Monitor

-90 consecutive weeks with at least D3 drought in some part of the state

-D4 Drought first occurred in the state on the April 12, 2011 Drought Monitor

-D4 Drought remained in the state for 38  weeks, ending on the January 10th Drought Monitor

- Worst stretch began on the June 21 Drought Monitor when 64.4% of the state was in D4, and 100% of the state was experiencing  D1 to D4 drought

-This stretch continued for six weeks until the August 2, 2011 Drought Monitor

-The 2010-2012 Louisiana drought would not fully subside (no more Moderate Drought in the state) until the March 27 2012 Drought Monitor

-The Drought lasted 102 weeks total, where at least some portion of the state was in Moderate Drought

-Current drought is at 23 consecutive weeks with D4 Drought in at least some part of the state

*I may be off by one or two weeks one way or the other. I didn't want to count again to make sure.

I said back when the talk of the drought first began around here that the one thing we needed to hope for is that this drought doesn't linger like the one in 2010-2012. We have some hope now that it isn't going to, with every outlook window showing at least normal precipitation, and most showing better chances for above normal precipitation.

One thing that really hurt with this drought, and contributed heavily to the wildfires this past Summer, was flash drought set in in part of the state. That really dried everything out quickly, increased fuel loads, and gave perfect conditions for fire weather.
Posted by SWLA92
SWLA
Member since Feb 2015
2099 posts
Posted on 1/28/24 at 11:21 pm to
It’s seems like to me that the start to the new year has got us off to a wetter start than normal, or maybe it’s just normal and the past couple years haven’t been normal. Does the pattern changing to El Niño have that effect? I want to say we are forecasted for a wet spring/summer.
Posted by Classy Doge
Member since Nov 2021
3006 posts
Posted on 1/28/24 at 11:24 pm to
We can sure use it. Would help the basin reach a condition where it could assist somewhat with the low supply and maybe bring prices down some in the near term.
Posted by DownSouthJukin
Coaching Changes Board
Member since Jan 2014
27607 posts
Posted on 1/28/24 at 11:25 pm to
The shrimpers thank the crawfish industry for the increased business.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
55499 posts
Posted on 1/28/24 at 11:30 pm to
quote:

It’s seems like to me that the start to the new year has got us off to a wetter start than normal, or maybe it’s just normal and the past couple years haven’t been normal. Does the pattern changing to El Niño have that effect? I want to say we are forecasted for a wet spring/summer.

The Baton Rouge area is actually above Normal for the month by more than two inches, so your sense of it being wetter than it usually is is correct. Also, that was a hell of a dry stretch, so when things do flip back to being more normal it seems like way more than it is.
This post was edited on 1/28/24 at 11:30 pm
Posted by Classy Doge
Member since Nov 2021
3006 posts
Posted on 1/28/24 at 11:33 pm to
quote:

The shrimpers thank the crawfish industry for the increased business.

Lol. They are struggling as an industry too due to the low prices and overseas competition in the marketplace. In fact lawmakers in DC are pushing to get them a deal worked out that can help the shrimp industry endure inflation and prevent bankruptcies to keep shrimp boats out on the water.
Posted by SWLA92
SWLA
Member since Feb 2015
2099 posts
Posted on 1/28/24 at 11:34 pm to
As a crawfish farmer I prefer shrimp over crawfish. Fried shrimp is my weakness
Posted by Midtiger farm
Member since Nov 2014
5125 posts
Posted on 1/29/24 at 7:58 am to
quote:

-This stretch continued for six weeks until the August 2, 2011 Drought Monitor


This is key when it comes to crawfish. How much rain did we get in August - Nov that year even if we were in drought

Also 2011 didn't have the heat we had this year

I talked to a restaurant owner this weekend and he said the latest he's ever started serving crawfish was late Feb and that was in 2015 - we had a really dry late July/August that year
Posted by Boudreaux35
BR
Member since Sep 2007
21678 posts
Posted on 1/29/24 at 8:32 am to
quote:

I'll do without crawfish this year. Not paying ridiculous prices.


EXACKLY! We gots shramps!
Posted by fallguy_1978
Best States #50
Member since Feb 2018
49136 posts
Posted on 1/29/24 at 8:39 am to
quote:

Can't imagine spending that kind of money for boiled fricking crawfish.

Agreed. I like boiled crawfish ok but no way would I pay a bunch of money to eat them. I'd rather have a steak.
Posted by tigerfoot
Alexandria
Member since Sep 2006
56710 posts
Posted on 1/29/24 at 8:42 am to
quote:

We all know that this year is the worst year ever.

But the clown restaurant owners are comical.

Rhett's Tails And Shells Farmerville La - GREAT NEWS???? Our amazing Farmers have worked so hard to get us an abundant supply of Crawfish we can now GO BACK TO BEING OPEN OUR NORMAL HOURS & we have a price drop??

After 50 people asked for the "dropped price" and him ignoring he answers $12.99 a lb :)


Nate's in DFW "We got double of what we ordered so we are dropping the price a dollar and kicking off our Monday and Tuesday $1 off a pound special a day early!"

When pressed he finally states - we are dropping our price to $14.95 to handle the volume.

They have us over a barrel dont they, if we dont eat em, we die. Govt should step in.
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