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COVID Integral Calculus
Posted on 4/23/20 at 10:23 pm
Posted on 4/23/20 at 10:23 pm
What's simple about all of this, but which appears to be escaping many people is that "flattening the curve" doesn't mean fewer infections. The area under the curve remains the same. That's both science.....and math.
15
Posted on 4/23/20 at 10:24 pm to MidnightVibe
Oh wow I haven’t heard this yet. Thanks for the fresh information!
Posted on 4/23/20 at 10:26 pm to MidnightVibe
The limit does not exist?
The limit does not exist!
The limit does not exist!
Posted on 4/23/20 at 10:45 pm to MidnightVibe
Posted on 4/23/20 at 10:48 pm to MidnightVibe
I like how all these charts and projections assume some precise mathematical flow, when they've been drastically modifying the forecasts every day.
Posted on 4/23/20 at 10:51 pm to MidnightVibe
What seems to have escaped you is that this has been known and openly discussed from the very beginning.
Posted on 4/23/20 at 10:54 pm to MidnightVibe
Posted on 4/23/20 at 10:56 pm to MidnightVibe
if only somebody has busted out MS paint to explain this
Posted on 4/23/20 at 10:57 pm to MidnightVibe
Can you explain further? this seems like it is important but my brain can't process it.
Posted on 4/23/20 at 11:01 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
if only somebody has busted out MS paint to explain this
Posted on 4/23/20 at 11:04 pm to MidnightVibe
Delta x = (b-a)/n
Posted on 4/23/20 at 11:34 pm to The Boat
Well that’s an opinion
Posted on 4/24/20 at 12:24 am to MidnightVibe
quote:This isn’t true actually because given how easily this transmits (especially early on) and given how there appears to supper-spreaders and specific locations for it super-spreading, there is a far better chance to overshoot “herd immunity,” and by a significant amount (10 to 20 percent) if the curve isn’t flattened.
The area under the curve remains the same.
For example, with a R0 between 2.5 to 2.6, roughly 60% of a population needs to be infected to reach the herd immunity level, about 200 million in the United States. But if 70 or 80 percent are infected because it’s overshot, then you’re looking at an additional 30 to 60 million infected.
quote:The math actually says that the cumulative distribution function of an exponential distribution does not have the same area under the curve when lamda is less than 1, which is goal of flattening the curve and the inflection point for herd immunity.
That's both science.....and math.
This post was edited on 4/24/20 at 12:31 am
Posted on 4/24/20 at 12:30 am to buckeye_vol
nobody's reading that shite
Posted on 4/24/20 at 1:52 am to buckeye_vol
I respect the hell out of you for coming to threads with your guns loaded.
However, the whole goal has been to protect vulnerable ppl.
There are ppl dieing of depression at nursing homes now.
My mom had her mammogram rescheduled.
On and on.
We need to get herd immunity ASAP.
Ppls lives do depend on this.
However, the whole goal has been to protect vulnerable ppl.
There are ppl dieing of depression at nursing homes now.
My mom had her mammogram rescheduled.
On and on.
We need to get herd immunity ASAP.
Ppls lives do depend on this.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 3:41 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
This isn’t true actually because given how easily this transmits (especially early on) and given how there appears to supper-spreaders and specific locations for it super-spreading, there is a far better chance to overshoot “herd immunity,” and by a significant amount (10 to 20 percent) if the curve isn’t flattened.
What you just wrote is an unsupported conclusion, and I suspect that it will remain unsupported because I don't think anything you wrote is correct. This virus is fairly contagious, but really middle-of-the-road as far diseases go. It's no measles or chicken pox. And so to suggest that it is uniquely situated to ensure overshoot is bunk. I'm going to just completely ignore the phrase "there appear to be super-spreaders" because there's no way you can back that up. Your last point that there are specific locations where it is being spread more is correct, but this not abnormal at all. It should be expected to spread more rapidly in area of high-density population. This is not a characteristic that makes an overshoot more likely.
quote:
The math actually says that the cumulative distribution function of an exponential distribution does not have the same area under the curve when lamda is less than 1, which is goal of flattening the curve and the inflection point for herd immunity.
Did you write this to try to sound smart? A couple points: a virus is not an exponential function. It is a logistic equation when we are graphing number of infected individuals over time. That goal was never to flatten the curve. It only gets flat when literally no more individuals get infected.
Rather, what we are trying to flatten is a graph of new infected patients per day. Which is essentially the first derivative of the aforesaid logistical equation.
It is a curve that generally resembles a bell curve. The oft-repeated mantra of "flattening the curve" means to make that graph shorter and longer as opposed to skinnier and higher.
The under the curve of the shorter graph and the higher graph are the same every single day of the week.
This post was edited on 4/24/20 at 3:55 am
Posted on 4/24/20 at 3:43 am to Korkstand
quote:
What seems to have escaped you is that this has been known and openly discussed from the very beginning.
Perhaps on this board. But in the genpop? Hail focking no.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 3:48 am to MidnightVibe
quote:330*.6=198. If you're going to be pedantic, at least get it right.
You mean 180 million.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 3:53 am to buckeye_vol
quote:Shut up, nerd.
buckeye_vol
Posted on 4/24/20 at 3:54 am to Korkstand
quote:
330*.6=198. If you're going to be pedantic, at least get it right.
I did it in my head earlier in a convo about this, and dude didn't question it, so I thought it was right.
But, yeah, that's my bad.
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