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Started By
Message
re: COVID-19 nugget from 3/27 that is holding up rather well
Posted on 4/13/20 at 11:53 am to tgrbaitn08
Posted on 4/13/20 at 11:53 am to tgrbaitn08
You think we will have a solid treatment and vaccine when it’s time to go back to school in August?
What will be the message then?
What will be the message then?
1
Posted on 4/13/20 at 11:54 am to LNCHBOX
quote:Will you fricking stop with the strawmans. I haven’t said anything close to this.
It's not an automatic death sentence for the old no matter how much you wish it to be so.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 11:54 am to LNCHBOX
quote:
Still correct it wasn’t 100s of thousands.
Here's your medal I guess.
Lots of people undershot the US death toll. I was one of them. I am very surprised at how quickly this has swept the US and the world. But there are many, many others who were even more wrong on the other end of the spectrum.
I'll bet we have huge numbers of "infected" who never get tested and don't even know they had it. I also think that taking that into account the fatality rate is well below 1% and maybe below .5%. Absent an effective vaccine we will never eradicate this given how widespread and contagious it is. We are just going to have to live with it. That means getting on with things, taking was precautions are practical.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 11:54 am to LNCHBOX
quote:I didn’t say this either. Ffs.
Regardless of care?
Posted on 4/13/20 at 11:56 am to ell_13
quote:
I didn’t say this either. Ffs.
quote:
Grandma will get it eventually and she will either live or die regardless of the icu availability.
Availability of ICU care is kind of a big deal.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 11:56 am to FAP SAM
quote:I am actually looking for that post.
Then yea, that's a bad take for sure
I want to read what my predictions were and when.
Best I can find from early March are posts shooting down the hundreds of thousands and that “quarantine and contain” were no longer options.
Then it is a bunch of posts bitching about our panic crashing the stock market.
Those have continued.
This post was edited on 4/13/20 at 11:57 am
Posted on 4/13/20 at 11:57 am to ell_13
quote:
You think we will have a solid treatment and vaccine when it’s time to go back to school in August?
Treatment..yes
Vaccine..no
Posted on 4/13/20 at 11:57 am to Scruffy
Bit of an aside, but we are currently trending to hit 100k within the next two months.
No exponential trickery here. Straight up based off of current daily death rate and the fact that it is still rising. Even though we will probably peak and start declining in that time frame it should be more than enough to hit that mark before June 15th.
Although given that half of all deaths are still coming from New York they might be able to locally contain it faster.
It does highlight however how big of a factor population density is corelated with death rate.
Taking away New York and New Jersey changes the overall US from 67 deaths per million residents to 35 deaths per million residents, a 48% reduction in spite of those two states accounting for only 8.5% of the US population. Its the same pattern in Italy and Spain, and probably others I am not aware of.
The high population density factor is why its not appropriate to point to place like Iceland and Sweden as the "what if we did nothing" model.
No exponential trickery here. Straight up based off of current daily death rate and the fact that it is still rising. Even though we will probably peak and start declining in that time frame it should be more than enough to hit that mark before June 15th.
Although given that half of all deaths are still coming from New York they might be able to locally contain it faster.
It does highlight however how big of a factor population density is corelated with death rate.
Taking away New York and New Jersey changes the overall US from 67 deaths per million residents to 35 deaths per million residents, a 48% reduction in spite of those two states accounting for only 8.5% of the US population. Its the same pattern in Italy and Spain, and probably others I am not aware of.
The high population density factor is why its not appropriate to point to place like Iceland and Sweden as the "what if we did nothing" model.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 11:57 am to Scruffy
I remember picking you to be the first OTer to get the Kung Flu
Posted on 4/13/20 at 11:57 am to ell_13
quote:
Will you fricking stop with the strawmans. I haven’t said anything close to this.
quote:
that I’m talking about the old people who get this anyway.
You've been vocal as frick for a month about this killing off the elderly. Don't back down now
Posted on 4/13/20 at 11:59 am to tgrbaitn08
quote:
someone in nola fricked his boyfriend a while back and he's never gotten over it
quote:how’d his boyfriends dick taste m8
tgrbaitn08
Posted on 4/13/20 at 11:59 am to Volvagia
quote:Where are you seeing that?
Bit of an aside, but we are currently trending to hit 100k within the next two months.
I have seen 60,000 deaths, but not 100,000.
quote:Which is one of my reasoning behind why we shouldn’t have gone with a blanket shutdown.
The high population density factor is why its not appropriate to point to place like Iceland and Sweden as the "what if we did nothing" model.
Areas that need it, really need it.
Areas that don't are suffering because of the areas that need it.
This post was edited on 4/13/20 at 12:04 pm
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:03 pm to LNCHBOX
I said this in the other thread and figured you read it. The old people who need icus would get them via transfer if in a place where they were at capacity. My point was that wasn’t who’s life was at more risk with a hospital at capacity. It’s the ones who need immediate icu and vents like people in severe car wrecks.
But that wasn’t the message. The message was stay home. Stop the spread. You’ll keep grandma from getting it and save her. This will end sooner. None of that was true in reality. There was no stopping the spread. You can’t simply stop people from getting this; you can only delay it. Delaying it actually extends the timing of the curve making this shutdown last longer.
But that wasn’t the message. The message was stay home. Stop the spread. You’ll keep grandma from getting it and save her. This will end sooner. None of that was true in reality. There was no stopping the spread. You can’t simply stop people from getting this; you can only delay it. Delaying it actually extends the timing of the curve making this shutdown last longer.
This post was edited on 4/13/20 at 12:04 pm
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:03 pm to tgrbaitn08
quote:Hate is a strong word.
Scruffy HATES New Orleans.
I just think it is a symbol of one of the biggest issues with LA.
Decaying, dying society that refuses to recognize its problems and refuses to change.
The people that live there refuse to accept or acknowledge the glaring issues that it has.
I mean, come on, the city is in the top 50 most dangerous cities in the world. That is nuts.
Also, this is a perfect situation where NOLA will either change or die.
Travel, hotels, concerts, festivals, all of that will take a hit with this situation.
Those are the only things that New Orleans has.
If NOLA doesn't change, they are going to fail spectacularly.
quote:
any chance he he gets to hammer nola he takes it.....someone in nola fricked his boyfriend a while back and he's never gotten over it
This post was edited on 4/13/20 at 12:07 pm
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:04 pm to Scruffy
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:04 pm to Scruffy
quote:
I have seen 60,000 deaths, but not 100,000.
100% napkin math, with the assumptions I put in the post. So if people who are actually experts applying thought out models are saying 60k, take their word for it.
But it would require a very steep reduction in daily deaths to occur and it would have to happen soon. We would have to average 633 deaths/day in the next 2 months for that to occur. We currently have over 1500/day, and while the slope is getting pretty flat, it is still going up.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:04 pm to JohnnyKilroy
Thanks.
I was definitely off on that one.
I was definitely off on that one.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:05 pm to ell_13
quote:
Delaying it actually extends the timing of the curve making healthcare resources more readily available which can in fact save grandma.
FIFY
Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:06 pm to LNCHBOX
quote:Uh. Do you know nothing about this virus? I’ve said over and over that it mostly affects the elderly and unhealthy to a larger degree. That’s just a fact. I said in early March that the approach should have been simply to quarantine the old and let the rest of us go about our lives as we build heard immunity. AntonioMoss freaked out and tried to use February data to say that young people are at a huge risk too.
You've been vocal as frick for a month about this killing off the elderly. Don't back down now
He’s disappeared since then. Posted on 4/13/20 at 12:08 pm to ell_13
quote:
Do you know nothing about this virus?
I'd say I know more than you, nut that's a low bar.
quote:
AntonioMoss freaked out and tried to use February data to say that young people are at a huge risk too. He’s disappeared since then.
He's active in several threads, some of which you're posting in.
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