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Started By
Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 3/30/20 at 5:27 am to Dandy Lion
Posted on 3/30/20 at 5:27 am to Dandy Lion
quote:
I'm talking about the diminished capacity of the lungs in the future who believe they have never come in contact with it
I have not seen any evidence that shows the lung damage is or is not permanent. If you have that, I'd love to read it. I've seein multiple doctors, including on this very thread, acknowledge we just don't know yet. The human body is pretty resilient so I have my doubts.
1
Posted on 3/30/20 at 6:29 am to MadDogs
Maybe a repost but this link lets you
check forecasted peak outbreak time
It let's you break it down by state if you want to get granular.
check forecasted peak outbreak time
It let's you break it down by state if you want to get granular.
Posted on 3/30/20 at 7:15 am to Honkus
Louisiana I think got “pushed back” by two days. Pretty sure yesterday it said April 8 as peak for resources — this am it says April 10.
Posted on 3/30/20 at 7:26 am to tiger91
quote:
Louisiana I think got “pushed back” by two days. Pretty sure yesterday it said April 8 as peak for resources — this am it says April 10.
Yes, I think you're right. But yesterday's low death number also pushed the top of the curve down by 1000 hospital beds.
Today, we'll see if yesterday's low number was just a glitch or statistical anomaly. We've seen odd reporting in the past on weekends, as that often means different people filing the reports.
Posted on 3/30/20 at 7:39 am to GOP_Tiger
If the low numbers are weekend testing then Tuesday will be 'real' numbers
Posted on 3/30/20 at 7:42 am to Honkus
Forecast looks devastating for Florida.
Posted on 3/30/20 at 7:44 am to GOP_Tiger
How is Florida’s peak not until May? And that link shows no social distancing and no travel restrictions. WTH?
Posted on 3/30/20 at 7:55 am to tiger91
quote:
How is Florida’s peak not until May? And that link shows no social distancing and no travel restrictions. WTH?
If you read the underlying paper, all of the estimates are based on full social distancing measures. The state by state breakdown just shows what they state has in place right now.
EDIT: Actually I am looking at it again and I am still not clear on the underlying assumptions. If they are assuming existing state by state measures, then honestly most states don't look too bad.
quote:
Key Points
Question: Assuming social distancing measures are maintained, what are the forecasted gaps in
available health service resources and number of deaths from the COVID-19 pandemic for each
state in the United States?
...
Meaning: Even with social distancing measures enacted and sustained, the peak demand for
hospital services due to the COVID-19 pandemic is likely going to exceed capacity substantially.
Alongside the implementation and enforcement of social distancing measures, there is an urgent
need to develop and implement plans to reduce non-COVID-19 demand for and temporarily
increase capacity of health facilities.
Ok, it does look like it is assuming existing measures are maintained.
This post was edited on 3/30/20 at 8:00 am
Posted on 3/30/20 at 8:01 am to MadDogs
Lots of state that don't have full restrictions actually do have them in place for their major cities, where most of their populations live (and big cities are also at the greatest risk), so I'm not sure that just looking at statewide restrictions tells us much of anything.
Posted on 3/30/20 at 8:14 am to GOP_Tiger
It seems the Governors are letting most of the mayors make those calls, maybe they have to, not sure.
As the individual cities turn things around I would imagine regulations relax
As the individual cities turn things around I would imagine regulations relax
Posted on 3/30/20 at 8:30 am to fightin tigers
Posted on 3/30/20 at 8:30 am to GOP_Tiger
I ran some quick numbers based on that report and also looked at total deaths in the US in 2017. The 4 month COVID-19 death estimate is 82,141. We had 2,813,503 deaths in the US in 2017. If we divide that by 4 to get a quarterly death total (937,834), we find that the estimated percent increase in deaths over the next 4 months is 8.8%. Everyone will assign that their own level of significance, but I do think it is interesting to compare against the usual deaths.
For comparison, Louisiana's is a 12.4% increase and Ohio's is a 2.9% increase.
For comparison, Louisiana's is a 12.4% increase and Ohio's is a 2.9% increase.
Posted on 3/30/20 at 8:36 am to MadDogs
Aren’t total deaths declining bc of quarantine? Less car wrecks etc.
Posted on 3/30/20 at 8:50 am to lsu13lsu
Less flu deaths too.
I’m laughing this morning at old people who are begging people to stay home so they can see their family again. They don’t realize that stay at home EXTENDS the curve and lengthens the amount of time it’s going to take to “peak” and go down. The quarantine is what’s keeping them from their family longer.
I’m laughing this morning at old people who are begging people to stay home so they can see their family again. They don’t realize that stay at home EXTENDS the curve and lengthens the amount of time it’s going to take to “peak” and go down. The quarantine is what’s keeping them from their family longer.
Posted on 3/30/20 at 8:59 am to lsu13lsu
quote:
Aren’t total deaths declining bc of quarantine? Less car wrecks etc.
That very well could be. It would take a much more in depth analysis to factor that in.
Posted on 3/30/20 at 9:03 am to ell_13
I’m guessing one of the reasons the flu ends up seasonal is it has something like an R0 of 1.3 in the winter and a little under 1 through the summer, with just enough lingering cases to reseed the various strains when the kids go back to school in the fall. This is with us all living our normal lives.
The flu also comes on in about 2 days vs. an average 5 for the Coronavirus. 40 days of social distancing measures would be about 8 cycles of Corona, but 20 cycles of the flu, so in total, the measures we’re taking here aught to knock the living crap out the flu (bordering on eradicating the current strains).
The flu also comes on in about 2 days vs. an average 5 for the Coronavirus. 40 days of social distancing measures would be about 8 cycles of Corona, but 20 cycles of the flu, so in total, the measures we’re taking here aught to knock the living crap out the flu (bordering on eradicating the current strains).
Posted on 3/30/20 at 9:05 am to BRIllini07
We are saving so many lives.
Posted on 3/30/20 at 9:06 am to ell_13
Well this thread is fricking useless 
Posted on 3/30/20 at 9:15 am to ell_13
quote:
I’m laughing this morning at old people who are begging people to stay home so they can see their family again. They don’t realize that stay at home EXTENDS the curve and lengthens the amount of time it’s going to take to “peak” and go down. The quarantine is what’s keeping them from their family longer
The more people stay at home, the slower everything spreads. You got that point correct. But to no one's surprise, you are once again missing the point. The slower this thing spreads, the better the chance of survival everyone will have. I'd rather my parents get this in 8-10 weeks than get it today. We can assume medical supplies, personnel, beds, and medicine won't be as stressed as they will be in 2-3 weeks at the peak. Also, every day that passes, doctors are learning more about the virus and treatments. If we had done nothing, everyone and everything would simply be overwhelmed to the point of fricking chaos right now. So yeah... everyone should stay home... slow things down... and maybe those 'old people' will have a better chance of seeing their loved ones again.
Posted on 3/30/20 at 9:17 am to ashy larry
quote:Whoever gets it today, they will have an ICU bed and really good care. You are wrong in thinking our system is currently stressed.
The slower this thing spreads, the better the chance of survival everyone will have. I'd rather my parents get this in 8-10 weeks than get it today.
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