re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***

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So what are the odds we start looking at a 2 week lock down like we’ve seen in other countries?

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Very high. My only question is do they quarantine just the local city where the outbreak is bad, the state, or more.

I don’t think quarantining the whole country makes sense, but other countries have done it. I guess they are worried about a lot of people going to another city or state. If everyone is locked down it wouldn’t matter.

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And why silly? Because you say so and your holier than thou?

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Not at all, I respect other opinions but I just don’t think they will be honest. I think they will just move onto the next talking point.

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Like it or not, until it kills 30k in the US, the “its not as bad as the flu” crowd will continue to preach.

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Oh I’m well aware. And then the goal posts will shift to the next thing.

The point is there are mountains of evidence that it leads to a far more severe clinical attack rate than flu, and yet I see time and time again it get insinuated/outright said that this is nothing notable. That if we tracked regular flu with the same vigor, we would see similar results.

Well obviously not, given the comparison to the obituary section in the core of the flu results.

And if it doesn’t happen, they will simply say it was never a big deal in spite of multiple clear examples in each of two divergent paths: what can can with massive active containment, and what happening when you just monitor the situation.

For fricks sake, we had people trying to rationalize Italy was a third world country to make themselves feel comfortable with the death toll.

And as pointless as the battle may be, I have no issues being Don Quixote about it.

It’s just a guess. I just don’t see any other way to slow it down and I think we are almost guaranteed to see hospitals overflowing in certain locations. It’s been spreading for weeks with no testing or mitigation measures.

Just think. You had people with COVID going home without a test for days to infect other people before going back to the hospital to finally get a positive test.

Louisiana passes FL for the most active cases in the SE.

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Louisiana passes FL for the most active cases in the SE.

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Lots of links outside of La are tied to being there for Madri Gras..... Not just floats killing people

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So what are the odds we start looking at a 2 week lock down like we’ve seen in other countries? The amount of closures, the limiting of assembly size, etc seem reasonable in small steps but how far will it go before this is under control?

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Almost a given in my opinion. The question of containment is gone, and the hope for case tracing serving as a mitigation mechanism is almost gone as well.

We have confirmed community level infection in 70+% of the US.

The only variable will be if the second wave deaths materialize in the form of a spike within the next ten days, or if it will still just simmer in the background.



I am personally preparing on the assumption we are going to be given a directive to stay at home for the month of April and I’m making sure mine are covered in event it happens.

Note that I don’t nesscessarily think it will happen because the situation warranted it, but just like the aftermath of the NBA suspension, you’ll get a domino effect of pressure from the optics of it.

We saw this today with the rash of countries imposting a lockdown in the wake of France.

I mean we’ll copy Italy. Stay at home will still allow for essential work, grocery store, and pharmacy.

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Italy is an anomaly... 25% of the population is elderly and the population density is ridiculous in comparison to others.

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There is like a 2-3% difference in the US and Italy’s population portion in the high risk demographic.

Do you honestly think that is the smoking gun distinction?

Density is valid however, and goes to why the need to switch to active, not suggestive, containment measures.