re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***

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Tulane Student under Quarantine. The school tested this girl privately without warning any others on campus nor city officials...

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And yet they did a terrible job keeping it secret as lots of references have come across my radar the last 48+hours

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Spain is going to surpass Italy very soon. Is this thing going to show which countries are well run and which ones aren't?

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The U.S.

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There was a guy in my office today bitching about his mother's nursing home restricting visitors.

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It’s not even the nursing home that’s restricting the visitors. That was handed down first by LNHA and subsequently by DHH-LA and applies to ALL licensed healthcare facilities - behavioral hospitals, adult daycare, hospitals, surgical centers, the works. I don’t understand why families want to all of a sudden be family member of the year and put their loved ones and everyone else at risk. Healthcare facilities are having to resort to extreme measures in screening every single person entering when they should just stay the frick away for a couple weeks.

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Their growth rate is really high. Either they improved on their testing or they're doomed.

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The number of cases making that jump is probably due to more testing, but we don’t really know. The 2.5% mortality rate is right in line with most others. Italy’s 7% is still the most troublesome, as of now.

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The 2.5% mortality rate is right in like with most others. Italy’s 7% is still the most troublesome, as of now.

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It's likely that Spain's death rate will soar with these numbers rising and hospitals not able to treat everyone.

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It's likely that Spain's death rate will soar with these numbers rising and hospitals not able to treat everyone.

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Maybe. Maybe not. We don’t know since we don’t know how many additional tests they administered.

I've been thinking about the Diamond Princess. CV19 was left unchecked for like a week on the ship before a quarantine was put in place, if I recall correctly.

It is starting to look like this is a novel viral strain that is more prone to respiratory infections amongst people that are already likely a very high risk for them (elderly, immunocompromised) given what we know about current deaths and severe cases and what we know about the hardest hit regions.

If this thing was megascary aerosolized, that cruise ship would have been completely wiped out seeing as how all ships only have particle filters for internally circulated air. There were 3,000 that were never infected on the ship.

Also, how was it in Qom and Milan, but not London, Paris, NYC, LA? Unless it already has swept through there and didn't have the perfect storm of conditions (weather, culture differences) for a mass outbreak.

More thoughts: France, Germany, and UK tend to be more like the US where elderly generally stick to themselves and are generally in retirement homes whereas Italy is still a bit more grounded in tradition (and worse economic outlook) so more kids live at home under the same roof with multiple generations.

Just some thoughts.

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My wife is filling out the census

Told her we should probably wait a month...she’s not amused

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That site looks sketchy. It says 100% mild but also lists 10 cases as critical. Math is hard.

More data on Diamond Princess asymptomatic cases:

LINK

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A total of 634 people tested positive among 3,063 tests as at 20 February 2020. Of 634 cases, a total of 313 cases were female and six were aged 0–19 years, 152 were aged 20–59 years and 476 were 60 years and older (Figure). Cases were from a total of 28 countries, with most being nationals of six countries, namely Japan (n?=?270 cases), the United States (n?=?88 cases), China (n?=?58 cases; including 30 from Hong Kong), the Philippines (n?=?54 cases), Canada (n?=?51 cases) and Australia (n?=?49 cases).
Of the 634 confirmed cases, a total of 306 and 328 were reported to be symptomatic and asymptomatic, respectively.

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Just to be clear that was the number of tests on one day, not total cases on the ship, and some of those asymptomatic cases may have developed symptoms later.

Seems like good and bad news. Good that there are so many asymptomatic/mild, but bad that those cases can still pass CV19 to people who are at higher risk and not know it.

Personal recommendation is to "Keep calm and carry on", but for a little while keep some distance from your older or elderly relatives.