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re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***

Posted on 3/1/20 at 8:50 am to
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21551 posts
Posted on 3/1/20 at 8:50 am to
quote:

It would be nice if SK released the demographics.


I haven't seen anything detailed but did see a quote that there more female patients than male in SK.
Posted by John88
Member since Sep 2015
6432 posts
Posted on 3/1/20 at 8:53 am to
Washington state investigating possible coronavirus outbreak at a nursing facility
quote:

KIRKLAND, Wash. (Video from KIRO via CNN) — Washington state health officials are investigating a possible outbreak of coronavirus at a long-term nursing facility in which two people tested positive for the disease.

More than 50 residents and staff from the Life Care Center in Kirkland are experiencing symptoms and will be tested for coronavirus, said Dr. Jeffrey Duchin, health officer for Seattle and King County.

LINK
Posted by Shaun176
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2008
3104 posts
Posted on 3/1/20 at 8:55 am to
quote:

I haven't seen anything detailed but did see a quote that there more female patients than male in SK.


The mortality rate by gender will start to even out once the look back at the data and norm for smoking. Much higher smoking rate for males than females in china.
Posted by CivilTiger83
Member since Dec 2017
2525 posts
Posted on 3/1/20 at 9:11 am to
quote:

SK mortality rates are close to the mortality rates we will see in the US due to the similar quality of our medical systems.


I agree. Remember that the cases that are new (within the last week) won’t be among most of those mortality numbers. So the case fatality rate should be around 15 deaths from approximately 1,000 cases. Right around the 1-2% range.

My guess is it will be around 3% for elderly and preexisting conditions patients and around 0.1% for healthy under 50 cases.
Posted by WaWaWeeWa
Member since Oct 2015
15714 posts
Posted on 3/1/20 at 9:48 am to
NYT - State of Healthcare Resources

quote:

In 2005, the federal government sought to assess how a respiratory-related pandemic might play out in the United States. Its report estimated that a severe influenza pandemic would require mechanical ventilators for 740,000 critically ill people.

Today, as the country faces the possibility of a widespread outbreak of a new respiratory infection caused by the coronavirus, there are nowhere near that many ventilators, and most are already in use. Only about 62,000 full-featured ventilators were in hospitals across the country, a 2010 study found. More than 10,000 others are stored in the Strategic National Stockpile, a federal cache of supplies and medicines held in case of emergencies, according to Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, a former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Tens of thousands of other respiratory devices could be repurposed in an emergency, experts say, but the shortfall could be stark, potentially forcing doctors to make excruciating life-or-death decisions about who would get such help should hospitals become flooded with the desperately sick.

“Even during mild flu pandemics, most of our I.C.U.s are filled to the brim with severely ill patients on mechanical ventilation,” said Dr. Eric Toner, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and an expert on health care preparedness. “I hope and pray Covid-19 turns out to be a moderate pandemic, but if not, we’re in serious trouble,” he said, referring to the name given the disease caused by the virus.

“We’ve assessed how many ventilators we have, what our capacity is, who’s going to take what role,” said Dr. Paul Nee, an infectious disease specialist and co-chairman of infection control at the hospital, which has about 370 licensed beds. He said that the hospital had about 50 ventilators, but that some older ventilators that were still functioning could be pulled into service if needed, and that other forms of ventilation that do not require a breathing tube could be used to support patients with pneumonia.
In an extreme situation, some hospitals’ plans include provisions for rationing, even removing some patients from ventilators without requiring their consent to make way for others presumed to have a better chance of survival. Some plans would also limit the access of certain categories of patients from critical care or even hospitalization during a peak pandemic based on criteria such as their age or an underlying chronic disease.


Posted by Antonio Moss
The South
Member since Mar 2006
49425 posts
Posted on 3/1/20 at 9:53 am to
quote:

SK - 3,686 active cases, 30 recovered, 20 deaths (+3 overnight)


Is there a temporal requirement to declare someone recovered? That seems like an awful low number given the total amount of cases and the CFR thus far.
Posted by CivilTiger83
Member since Dec 2017
2525 posts
Posted on 3/1/20 at 10:23 am to
quote:



Is there a temporal requirement to declare someone recovered? That seems like an awful low number given the total amount of cases and the CFR thus far.


This virus seems to take 2 weeks+ to run its course. Last week there were only a couple hundred cases.
Posted by WaWaWeeWa
Member since Oct 2015
15714 posts
Posted on 3/1/20 at 10:26 am to
quote:

Is there a temporal requirement to declare someone recovered? That seems like an awful low number given the total amount of cases and the CFR thus far.


In China they had a specific criteria. It was something along the lines of resolution of findings on imaging and two consecutive negative tests 24 hours apart. But don’t quote me on that.

I think that’s why you are seeing a low number, those patients are probably in good shape just waiting to meet whatever criteria SK has. SK is still trying to contain this so I wouldn’t be surprised if they are being very careful with who is discharged because of the reports of patients testing positive long after they are better
Posted by Antonio Moss
The South
Member since Mar 2006
49425 posts
Posted on 3/1/20 at 10:34 am to
I wonder if it’s something like 7-10 days symptom free before getting a declaration of recovered.
Posted by jennBN
Member since Jun 2010
3250 posts
Posted on 3/1/20 at 10:41 am to
I read somewhere else the total number of ventilators including all possible machines is 100k nation wide with 2/3 being in use currently. Probably many are being used in end of life care when families have not made the decision to withdraw support. Triaging the use of mechanical ventilation would probably have to happen.
Posted by TigerstuckinMS
Member since Nov 2005
33687 posts
Posted on 3/1/20 at 11:12 am to
quote:

I wonder if it’s something like 7-10 days symptom free before getting a declaration of recovered.



I think it's more confirmed through clinical and lab findings as opposed to some defined amount of time.
Posted by Phantom17
Northeast Louisiana
Member since Dec 2019
225 posts
Posted on 3/1/20 at 11:17 am to
quote:

You're on your own escaping Rhode Island Wuhan boy.


Posted by disco tiger
Everywhere
Member since Dec 2003
209 posts
Posted on 3/1/20 at 11:27 am to
Carl Goldman(Diamond Princess) said he gets tested every 48 hours and then once he tests negative he gets tested every 24 hours and needs to have 2 more negative tests to be declared recovered.
Posted by WaWaWeeWa
Member since Oct 2015
15714 posts
Posted on 3/1/20 at 11:35 am to
quote:

I read somewhere else the total number of ventilators including all possible machines is 100k nation wide with 2/3 being in use currently.


The total number is the same as what I’ve read. I’m not sure how many are in use but you estimation is in line with what I’ve personally experienced. Ventilators and ICU beds are some of the biggest expenses Hospitals have. With the tight margins in hospital care it’s fiscally irresponsible to hospital executives to have excesses in critical care capacity.

That’s where the government should have contingency plans and stockpiles. It’s costly, but we spend our tax dollars on much less meaningful items.
Posted by PeteRose
Hall of Fame
Member since Aug 2014
18172 posts
Posted on 3/1/20 at 11:42 am to
quote:

My guess is it will be around 3% for elderly and preexisting conditions patients and around 0.1% for healthy under 50 cases.


0.1% seems safe but if you were told that you have a 1/1000 chance of dying today you would feel unease about it.
Posted by UltimaParadox
North Carolina
Member since Nov 2008
52549 posts
Posted on 3/1/20 at 11:47 am to
quote:

0.1% seems safe but if you were told that you have a 1/1000 chance of dying today you would feel unease about it


Are you uneasy driving to work everyday?
Posted by jimmy the leg
Member since Aug 2007
44332 posts
Posted on 3/1/20 at 11:50 am to
quote:

0.1% seems safe but if you were told that you have a 1/1000 chance of dying today you would feel unease about it.


That depends. What are my chances of dying while:

Mowing the yard
Driving to the grocery
Showering
Having sex
Cooking dinner

I mean, 1 in 1000 seems concern worthy, but is it?
Posted by yatesdog38
in your head rent free
Member since Sep 2013
12737 posts
Posted on 3/1/20 at 11:51 am to
Do we have a list of preexisting conditions? I have a neurological disorder but live a normal life. This isn't gonna eat my brain is it? or am I more safe like the kid on World War Z
This post was edited on 3/1/20 at 11:52 am
Posted by Jon Ham
Member since Jun 2011
29691 posts
Posted on 3/1/20 at 12:02 pm to
quote:

Do we have a list of preexisting conditions?


I read that diabetes and heart issues are two of the ones that lead to increased risk.
Posted by Jon Ham
Member since Jun 2011
29691 posts
Posted on 3/1/20 at 12:06 pm to
Not to make a game of it, but just want to get a feel of where people in this thread see this headed over the next few days. If you had to choose, by end of day Friday how many US deaths due to Coronavirus will be reported:

A) 1-5
B) 6-12
C) 13-24
D) 25+
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