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Started By
Message
re: CDC releases new estimates of Coronavirus fatality rate
Posted on 5/22/20 at 9:10 am to ell_13
Posted on 5/22/20 at 9:10 am to ell_13
quote:
It’s probably closer to 50k.
What makes you say this?
I've read on here the assertion that any death is tested for covid and if positive it counts as a covid death but never really seen any proof of that. Does anyone cite this or why would they not use the official cause of death on a death certificate
1
Posted on 5/22/20 at 9:11 am to icegator337
quote:
What makes you say this?
I've read on here the assertion that any death is tested for covid and if positive it counts as a covid death but never really seen any proof of that. Does anyone cite this or why would they not use the official cause of death on a death certificate
There's a pretty easily googled example of a guy in Colorado who drank himself to death (.55 BAC) who tested positive so he was put in the COVID column.
There is over and undercounting. I don't know where it will shake out.
This post was edited on 5/22/20 at 9:12 am
Posted on 5/22/20 at 9:12 am to Scruffy
quote:
Trump failed all of us the minute he started supporting the shutdown.
He's a known germaphobe, so I'm sure that played into it somewhat...it's also an election year.
Posted on 5/22/20 at 9:12 am to The Third Leg
quote:
Lol.
Laugh all you want to but while many of us were barely inconvenienced by the pandemic, there over over 30 million unemployed Americans who were working full time jobs just eight or nine weeks ago. How many small businesses will be closed forever because of this in the United States alone? The current estimate is at least 100,000. That number will likely rise.
And then you have the after effects that will filter down to the developing world. They rely on us for food, shelter, and the basic necessities to sustain life. Because we were closed for business, many of those necessary supplies used to keep those people alive were cut off. As a result, millions could end up dying in the underdeveloped regions of the planet.
How many people will have taken their own lives due to quarantine-induced depression? How many will have taken their lives due to losing a business or a job as a result of this economic shutdown? The final tally will most likely never be fully known, but you can be sure that tally will be substantial.
Posted on 5/22/20 at 9:13 am to Scruffy
quote:
We should have opened up all regions not named NYC and NOLA the minute we realized hospitals were not overrun, which was something like 1.5-2 months ago.
You are exactly right. I originally thought the worse case scenario was that certain cities would be shut down if they reached capacity in the ICUs. I never imagined the entire country would shelter in place, even areas that weren't effected. That part made no sense.
Posted on 5/22/20 at 9:13 am to OweO
quote:
Does this include the people who died from shite like car wrecks, but were tested after there were dead and if they tested positive for COVID19, they counted it as a "coronavirs death"?
What person did that happen to?
Posted on 5/22/20 at 9:14 am to Teddy Ruxpin
quote:
There's a pretty easily googled example of a guy in Colorado who drank himself to death (.55 BAC) who tested positive so he was put in the COVID column.
Yep, which resulted in Colorado having two death counts, one is specifically death "due to CoviD" and is much lower than the other count.
quote:
There is over and undercounting. I don't know where it will shake out.
Yeah, even the yearly flu deaths are estimates. Going to be tough to get a true census.
Posted on 5/22/20 at 9:17 am to fallguy_1978
quote:
This will go down as the biggest, most expensive overreaction in history.
IMO that would be 9/11. We spent more than $6.5 trillion on two wars to avenge fewer than 3,000 deaths. By contrast, COVID-19 has killed almost 100,000 people. If 3,000 people were worth $6.5 trillion, then 100,000 people would be worth $216 trillion.
By that logic, we have underreacted to COVID-19.
Posted on 5/22/20 at 9:17 am to BiggerBear
Posted on 5/22/20 at 9:20 am to The Spleen
quote:
This will end up being less serious than originally thought, but at the time decisions were being made the reality was pretty ugly. And our slow reaction in testing contributed to those decisions.
WE'LL NEVER KNOW IF WE OVERREACTED ONLY IF WE UNDERREACTED.
You overzealous Karen mother frickers.
Posted on 5/22/20 at 9:20 am to Senor Sandwich
quote:
Senor Sandwich
post less
Posted on 5/22/20 at 9:20 am to TxTiger82
Downvotes mean I touched a nerve, but the numbers don't lie.
Posted on 5/22/20 at 9:20 am to OweO
quote:
Why do some people see everything as democrat or republican and blame everything on one party while thinking the other party does nothing wrong?quote:
because we are not morons. And what obvious is obvious.
Let’s compare.
List A:
Cuomo
Whitmer
Newsome
Phil Murphy
Biden
Moral Code
List B:
De Santis
Abbott
Kemp
One group is trying to earn invisible virtue points by being dramatic with the rules and regulations. The being pumped up by the biased media for doing so The other group is opening based on factual data and not letting the media bully them. This isn’t obvious?
quote:
Without going into detail do some of you every question things? Why is it that the Republican states are opening up quicker than Democrat states? if I was president I would use this situation as away to win over a few states
This is incoherent rambling by a moron, but let me parse thru it. Some states are opening up because they have made the risk analysis on their own, not trying to earn points with the media, and are making the best decisions for their state with the #’s they have. Which means opening. And I’d urge you to show me the statistics on the “Wave 2” COVID 19 deaths and cases we were promised in States from list B.
This post was edited on 5/22/20 at 9:25 am
Posted on 5/22/20 at 9:20 am to Scruffy
quote:
The correct response would have been to not take it even remotely as seriously as we did.
Yeah, that's kind of my point. Had this administration taken it seriously in January, and worked to ramp up the number of testing kits and deliver them to affected areas, we likely wouldn't have gotten to a point where governors and mayors were faced with the decision to issue stay at home orders. The biggest failure in this whole ordeal is the lack of a rigorous testing, tracing, and isolating program nationwide. That was the responsibility of the White House and its agencies, and taking action is what the Bush and Obama administrations did in prior pandemic outbreaks. This administration drug their feet hoping it would just go away, and here we are.
The media is certainly to blame as well for distorting things and hyping it.
Posted on 5/22/20 at 9:21 am to fallguy_1978
quote:
I didn't have a huge issue with the 15 days to figure out what we were dealing with. China didn't exactly help us out much to determine the seriousness of the virus.
Slowing down # of person-to-person interactions for a limited time to allow testing to catch up (thanks CDC) and prevent hospital overrun made sense to me and was a solid, worthwhile goal. Sometime after that someone decided to move the goal posts and we still haven't been able to locate them.
In that regard, shutting down gatherings probably did most of the leg work and shutting down small business did nothing. There was enough data available at the time to make that distinction and governments worldwide chose not to.
In particular that last extension of the SAH from May 1st to May 15th made no sense whatsoever for Louisiana, especially with how benign phase 1 is for opening.
Posted on 5/22/20 at 9:22 am to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
I’m not adding them. If you go to the link the CDC gives you an estimate for each group. And I calculated each group as having 1/3 of the cases being asymptomatic.
I think this still may be wrong but it doesn't change much.
I'm assuming, maybe incorrectly that asymptomatic cases skew towards the younger demographic. By giving each group the same asymptomatic discount, you're pulling that higher CFR down for the really old folks more than you should. But again, probably largely immaterial.
This post was edited on 5/22/20 at 9:23 am
Posted on 5/22/20 at 9:24 am to BRIllini07
quote:
Slowing down # of person-to-person interactions for a limited time to allow testing to catch up (thanks CDC) and prevent hospital overrun made sense to me and was a solid, worthwhile goal. Sometime after that someone decided to move the goal posts and we still haven't been able to locate them.
In that regard, shutting down gatherings probably did most of the leg work and shutting down small business did nothing. There was enough data available at the time to make that distinction and governments worldwide chose not to.
In particular that last extension of the SAH from May 1st to May 15th made no sense whatsoever for Louisiana, especially with how benign phase 1 is for opening.
Yep. And the shutdowns should have been localized. There was absolutely no reason that some parish 200 miles from BR or Nola that had 3 cases needed to be closed.
Posted on 5/22/20 at 9:24 am to Teddy Ruxpin
quote:
I think this still may be wrong but it doesn't change much.
I'm assuming, maybe incorrectly that asymptomatic cases skew towards the younger demographic. By giving each group the same asymptomatic discount, you're pulling that higher CFR down for the really old folks more than you should. But again, probably largely immaterial.
Whoa, dude! How dare you discuss the original topic at hand!
We've moved well past that in this thread, myself included.
Posted on 5/22/20 at 9:25 am to Sasquatch Smash
I kept thinking about the math and I finally came up with a reasoned response. 5 pages too late.
Posted on 5/22/20 at 9:27 am to fallguy_1978
quote:
This will go down as the biggest, most expensive overreaction in history.
i agree with this. i think some good will come from it tho, a market correction was overdue.
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