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Posted on 7/5/24 at 3:23 pm to The Boat
That's a Northern move...
Posted on 7/5/24 at 3:24 pm to RummelTiger
You can see it on satellite too. It might be the strongest convection decoupling from the center as it weakens but it's probably taking a northern wobble too
Posted on 7/5/24 at 3:25 pm to FlyinTiger93
quote:
Looks like a very northern wobble.
Hard to say without recon. It could be the mid-level vort getting displaced from the low level. However, it certainly appears to have taken on more of a northerly component to its motion this afternoon.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 3:26 pm to Keys Open Doors
4cst
Posted on 7/5/24 at 3:28 pm to RummelTiger
Butts are still puckered in Louisiana until it starts showing movement west.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 3:32 pm to FLObserver
This thing better not come here, especially the lake Charles area. Those poor people cant catch a break.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 3:33 pm to rds dc
Posted on 7/5/24 at 3:35 pm to rds dc
Recon inbound to Beryl
Posted on 7/5/24 at 3:35 pm to lsuman25
Boy this thing has moved way north on their original projections eh? How far in Louisiana is too far because cone of error has western LA in the potential it could go that way.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 3:36 pm to rds dc
So what’s making it take this northern turn????
Posted on 7/5/24 at 3:38 pm to friendlyobservation
quote:
Boy this thing has moved way north on their original projections eh?
Not really
quote:
How far in Louisiana is too far because cone of error has western LA in the potential it could go that way.
It has western LA in the potential path after it makes landfall in TX.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 3:39 pm to stout
It hasn't? Because cone of error wasn't showing western Louisiana before this.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 3:40 pm to FLObserver
quote:
Butts are still puckered in Louisiana until it starts showing movement west.
There is a ridge (area of high pressure) over the SE US. It looks like that puts a bound on the potential eastward movement.
However, it looks like Beryl is already outside the spread of the 12z Euro EPS.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 3:41 pm to friendlyobservation
quote:
hasn't? Because cone of error wasn't showing western Louisiana before this.
Because of the shape of the Texas coastline, Louisiana has pretty much always been a possibility. Lots of systems have ridden the Texas coast up to Louisiana.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 3:42 pm to friendlyobservation
quote:
It hasn't?
It's shifted North yes but not a huge shift like you were alluding to. The models have been showing North Mexico to Galveston as potential landfall. That is still the case as of now but it could keep shifting north. It would take a hard shift to come straight to Lake Charles.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 3:43 pm to stout
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. quote:
If #Beryl's mid-level and surface centers are collocated and actually about to exit the Yucatan, shelf waters there are relatively cool, so it will likely take a minute for Beryl to begin rebuilding an inner convective core. However, on the whole, seeing Beryl spend less time over land probably increases the odds of significant restrengthening over the Gulf of Mexico.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 3:44 pm to Oates Mustache
Ah, okay. That makes sense thanks.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 3:45 pm to S
Where's the one of the guys stacking beers with the dolly at a convience store?
Posted on 7/5/24 at 3:47 pm to The Boat
Boat
Do you think you could beat Rob Perillo in an arm wrestling contest?
Do you think you could beat Rob Perillo in an arm wrestling contest?
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