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re: Beryl Thread - the clean up begins...
Posted on 7/5/24 at 4:17 pm to VermilionTiger
Posted on 7/5/24 at 4:17 pm to VermilionTiger
quote:
Boat Do you think you could beat Rob Perillo in an arm wrestling contest?
No shot
This post was edited on 7/5/24 at 4:20 pm
0
Posted on 7/5/24 at 4:18 pm to OysterPoBoy
quote:
These sons of bitches just moved the cone.
May your line stay within the Cone for all your days.
This post was edited on 7/5/24 at 4:19 pm
Posted on 7/5/24 at 4:22 pm to kballa6
Headed to Houston Sunday. 
Posted on 7/5/24 at 4:38 pm to Tarps99
quote:
I am not liking that SE LA will have several days of Southernly winds.
We will flood in Maurepas.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 4:41 pm to rds dc
Any gut thoughts on the next position/direction update?
Posted on 7/5/24 at 4:45 pm to rds dc
If the NHC can’t predict the landfall within 100 miles 36 hours out then they need to go back to the drawing board
Posted on 7/5/24 at 4:46 pm to rds dc
Beryl is exiting the Yucatan way further north than that cone suggests.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 4:46 pm to stout
quote:
Well considering that was 18 years before I even existed no I did not.
The point is that 100 miles away can affect the Lake Chuck area.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 4:47 pm to tiger91
Probably move it north to between corpus and matagorda
Posted on 7/5/24 at 4:47 pm to Midtiger farm
4th of July...skeleton crew of B teamers
Posted on 7/5/24 at 4:50 pm to rds dc
quote:
There is a ridge (area of high pressure) over the SE US. It looks like that puts a bound on the potential eastward movement.
Is a trough weakening that ridge? Got a strong cool north wind right now in MS
Posted on 7/5/24 at 4:50 pm to deltaland
Front is moving through DFW right now
Posted on 7/5/24 at 4:50 pm to Midtiger farm
My son, his wife and our grandchild (8 months old)are here (south Louisiana) heading back home to Houston Monday. Thinking they need to watch and decide what works for them.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 5:00 pm to VermilionTiger
Can I get a definition of a “wish caster” according to people on this board?
There’s absolutely NO ONE here that wishes storms makes it to ANYWHERE on the Gulf Coast.
What are we accusing of people to be when someone uses that term?
There’s absolutely NO ONE here that wishes storms makes it to ANYWHERE on the Gulf Coast.
What are we accusing of people to be when someone uses that term?
Posted on 7/5/24 at 5:00 pm to tiger91
By Saturday night they should have a very narrowed location to landfall.
I will say my dad noticed something years ago. They seem to jog right when they hit land. Like the spinning inertia in a CC rotation creates friction with the land and it tracks to the right at landfall.
Something I always look out for.
Somewhat grateful he just passed so he won't have to deal with another evacuation ever again. He was run down and things like that just wore him out.
Going to miss having someone to talk to about this though. He loved watching the weather and giving reports. Made him feel useful. That and reporting on grocery add sales.
I will say my dad noticed something years ago. They seem to jog right when they hit land. Like the spinning inertia in a CC rotation creates friction with the land and it tracks to the right at landfall.
Something I always look out for.
Somewhat grateful he just passed so he won't have to deal with another evacuation ever again. He was run down and things like that just wore him out.
Going to miss having someone to talk to about this though. He loved watching the weather and giving reports. Made him feel useful. That and reporting on grocery add sales.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 5:01 pm to Midtiger farm
quote:
If the NHC can’t predict the landfall within 100 miles 36 hours out then they need to go back to the drawing board
They used to be able to. Even with the technology of the 70s and 80s.
The problem is it took too weathermen going behind closed doors and hammering it out. Putting pen to paper and doing the work. Careers were made and busted based on those meetings. The cone had to be right.
Nowadays they just throw out whatever the latest and greatest model says and then move the cone when it turns out it was wrong. There is no more accountability.
This post was edited on 7/5/24 at 5:05 pm
Posted on 7/5/24 at 5:02 pm to Prominentwon
18Z GFS is a little north of it's 12Z run not by too much
Posted on 7/5/24 at 5:03 pm to tiger91
Yea if it’s anywhere close to matagorda or North Houston area going to get some bad wind/rain
Posted on 7/5/24 at 5:07 pm to Prominentwon
They model pick for whatever they want the outcome to be
They hype up slim chances of something happening
Imagine the spike in ratings for local Mets when a storm is coming to their area - don’t think they aren’t above thinking about money
They hype up slim chances of something happening
Imagine the spike in ratings for local Mets when a storm is coming to their area - don’t think they aren’t above thinking about money
Posted on 7/5/24 at 5:15 pm to Midtiger farm
quote:
If the NHC can’t predict the landfall within 100 miles 36 hours out then they need to go back to the drawing board
The Hurricane Expert on the Weather Channel used to be the Director of the Hurricane Center, and they use the European Model forecast, not the GFS. Joe Bastardi, one of the AccuWeather founders, has said the GFS is a flawed forecasting model. Maybe the reason why the NHC has dropped the ball on this one. They incorrectly forecasted that Cat 4 that hit Fort Myers .
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