re: Beryl Thread - the clean up begins...

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if she doesn’t weaken much between where she’s at now and Jamaica will she weaken before the Yucatan?

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It depends on what the interaction with Jamaica does to the inner core. The 18z hurricane models were a step back from 12z as far as intensity, but they do show a period of strengthening before the Yucatán. Also, being weaker than 12z resulted in tracks shifting back south some.

00z early cycle guidance is in pretty close agreement with the NHC forecast cone.

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eye wall replacement?

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Nah, just the diurnal cycle doing work.

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I like that the eastern update trend has stopped

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I thought the same. Then I saw this. I don't know what to believe.

That's not the loop of a weakening storm.

Looks like the opening day of Red Snapper Season lol.

It’s almost like she’s making her own weather by pushing through the shear and not batting an eye.

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Those tracks look more west than prior tracks. I like that the eastern update trend has stopped

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We're at a point, Im not finding the model shifts particularly useful. Its a strength forecast that determines the position forecast and its hard to know a lot on that until it crosses Jamaica.

If Beryl is mostly in tact, it can strengthen some on the Yucatan part of this trip. This also suggests a slightly more northern track.

Conversely, a less organized Beryl will trend more south and weaker plus land interaction would bury Beryl to the south into Mexico.

All three levels if water vapor showing how well it has wrapped up those recent bursts.

So…this storm is headed to the north side of Jamaica?

Jamaica is so fricked