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re: Beryl Thread - the clean up begins...

Posted on 7/2/24 at 2:26 pm to
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
140573 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 2:26 pm to
quote:

They keep shifting north which makes me have to worry about driving back to DFW on Sunday


Need that hot high pressure sitting over the Southeast to stay put for awhile longer.
Posted by wfallstiger
Wichita Falls, Texas
Member since Jun 2006
15951 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 2:26 pm to
Give me a A
Give me a V
Give me a N
Give me a I

What does that spell....rainfall and a bit of relief
Posted by Thracken13
Aft Cargo Hold of Serenity
Member since Feb 2010
18940 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 2:28 pm to
yeah very sorry man - we give you shite, but never want anything bad for you and yours.
Posted by thejudge
Westlake, LA
Member since Sep 2009
15217 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 2:31 pm to
quote:

A stronger storm in the Gulf is going to feel the northern pull at the mid-levels better. A stronger storm off Jamaica is likely to be farther north, go off the Yucatan farther north with less interaction and be stronger in the gulf.


Need Jamaica to weaken it and push it more to the Yucatan which further wears it down.
Posted by fr33manator
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2010
134810 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 2:31 pm to
The hurricane's gonna scrape Haiti and do millions of dollars worth of improvements
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
132076 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 2:32 pm to
NWS goes with theTVCN blend I think but people that know what they are talking about can confirm
Posted by Honest Tune
Louisiana
Member since Dec 2011
19285 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 2:34 pm to
quote:

The hurricane's gonna scrape Haiti and do millions of dollars worth of improvements


Clintons finna eat like it’s 2010 all over again.
Posted by Lsuhoohoo
Member since Sep 2007
102372 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 2:37 pm to
We got any clarity on the ridge yet? I've seen some say they expect it'll remain in place long enough. Others say it's supposed to move east by the weekend .
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 2:42 pm to
Looks clear to break down/slide east by Sunday as a trough digs into the middle of the country.

The window is gonna be open, but the storm has to be deep (read: strong) enough to feel the tug. Most of the stuff pushing into Mexico isnt because the ridge stays in place but because the model has it so weak it stays riding the shallow trades due West.
Posted by Mr Roboto
Seattle
Member since Jan 2023
8153 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 2:43 pm to
Just looking at the forecast the temps are supposed to decrease with an increase in rain chances starting Thursday. Compare that to today where it’s 100 and no rain.
Posted by dukke v
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
216598 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 2:43 pm to
I know. Thanks.
Posted by sosaysmorvant
River Parishes, LA
Member since Feb 2008
1507 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 2:46 pm to
quote:

I take my PPL lessons from a baw that used to fly hurricane hunters. He has ice water in his veins for sure.


Goggle Jeff Masters Hurricane Hugo. Dude wrote his story of when they flew into Hugo way back when (before all of todays technology) as Hurricane Hunters and they almost didn't make it out. Initial estimation of its strength were way off and had a hellava time getting out. He quit shortly thereafter. Good read if it's still out there.
Posted by Dixie2023
Member since Mar 2023
5470 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 2:49 pm to
Needs to sink Haiti and be done.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21596 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 2:49 pm to
quote:

NWS goes with theTVCN blend I think but people that know what they are talking about can confirm


One of the interesting subplots so far is that the NHC OFCL was consistently south of the TVCN. So, they have slowly been adjusting north and are now pretty closely aligned with the consensus guidance.
Posted by ned nederlander
Member since Dec 2012
6004 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 2:53 pm to
quote:

The keys does sounds like great idea though, didn't think of that. I just needed to have a hotel lined up for when we land tonight.


Loews is . . . kind of a conference and family hotel.

See if you can stay at the Setai, the 1 hotel or the Faena on miami beach to finish out a nice honeymoon.
Posted by jclem11
Chief Nihilist
Member since Nov 2011
9885 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 2:53 pm to
quote:

Needs to sink Haiti and be done.


Hank Johnson has entered the chat.

Posted by ned nederlander
Member since Dec 2012
6004 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 2:55 pm to
quote:

So if that fella from lake Chuck reads this board and remembers talking to a guy wearing a PlayStation button up shirt, thank you!




Posted by proger
Member since Nov 2007
748 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 2:58 pm to
quote:

In Tulum right now. Scheduled to fly out Thursday midday. fingers crossed flights arent cancelled


Manager just swung by and gave us evacuation plans for Thursday night/Friday if needed. I started freaking out and looked at flights out tomorrow but nothing available out of Tulum airport. Cancun flights out tomorrow are a price gouge of over $3k a ticket.

Took a deep breath and looked at the forecast map again. Thursday at 2pm it should still be a decent ways out.
This post was edited on 7/2/24 at 2:59 pm
Posted by Honest Tune
Louisiana
Member since Dec 2011
19285 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 3:01 pm to
quote:

Goggle Jeff Masters Hurricane Hugo. Dude wrote his story of when they flew into Hugo way back when (before all of todays technology) as Hurricane Hunters and they almost didn't make it out. Initial estimation of its strength were way off and had a hellava time getting out. He quit shortly thereafter. Good read if it's still out there.


Yea this is definitely up my alley, thanks for the recommendation.
Posted by Thib-a-doe Tiger
Member since Nov 2012
36783 posts
Posted on 7/2/24 at 3:03 pm to
Since our area was the last to take a major hit in LA, I voulunteer either the extreme southeast portion or anything west of Da Berry to take the next one if it has to be "us"
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