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re: Beryl Thread - the clean up begins...

Posted on 6/30/24 at 8:26 am to
Posted by BregmansWheelbarrow
Member since Mar 2020
3100 posts
Posted on 6/30/24 at 8:26 am to
quote:

I moved from DFW to Hattiesburg a couple of years ago. Hattiesburg sucks (only here temporarily) but I'm not taking a direct hit from a hurricane.


Let me tell you about Katrina.
Posted by TheRouxGuru
Member since Nov 2019
13244 posts
Posted on 6/30/24 at 8:32 am to
quote:

Can you post or link them? I'm uneasy about this one, but have nothing to justify that unease


You’re an attorney, just go with your gut. You know everything.
Posted by TheRouxGuru
Member since Nov 2019
13244 posts
Posted on 6/30/24 at 8:34 am to
quote:

Slow, I got good news for ya. While yes, I cant take Lake Charles off the table, it is far from the scenario Im expecting currently. Modeling has a little high pressure over the Northern Gulf has Baryl makes the approach toward Cuba and the Yucatan. This should force Baryl inland for the first time before a gulf entrance. In addition, as long as that little high pressure is positioned over the northern gulf, its gonna drive Baryl to the west. Some of the members you see with a north turn in the Gulf are seeing this high pressure get moved a little east and opening a door. Thats why i cant take LC off the board but dude, that high would need be eroded or shift more east than models are showing to get a potential trajectory toward LC. Not impossible, but as things look this am, it would take a lot of bad luck to put LC under the gun.


Who’s gonna steal this info and parrot it to his buddies at the water cooler like he knows what he’s talking about
Posted by TBoy
Kalamazoo
Member since Dec 2007
27258 posts
Posted on 6/30/24 at 8:36 am to
Beryl is Cat 3 now and strengthening. Expected to be Cat 4 soon. Bad mutha
Posted by loogaroo
Welsh
Member since Dec 2005
39130 posts
Posted on 6/30/24 at 8:44 am to
quote:

Looks like Audrey (1957) is the only cat 4 to ever make a June landfall that we know of.


Thanks!
Embarrassingly I forgot Audrey was a June storm. And…I’m from there. She spun up really quickly out of the BOC.

Beryl is a Cape Verde storm which is rare for this time of year. Bad thing about these long tracked Cape Verde storms is that they can become huge in overall size.
This post was edited on 6/30/24 at 8:49 am
Posted by loogaroo
Welsh
Member since Dec 2005
39130 posts
Posted on 6/30/24 at 8:46 am to
quote:

Who’s gonna steal this info and parrot it to his buddies at the water cooler like he knows what he’s talking about


lol

Pumping the ridge brah.
Posted by LSUGrrrl
Frisco, TX
Member since Jul 2007
44654 posts
Posted on 6/30/24 at 8:52 am to
quote:

Not making vacation plans to an island in the Caribbean during hurricane season is the first step to avoiding such a dilemma. Does nothing but cause unnecessary stress, wrecked plans and/or potentially getting stranded on an island without electricity and water. These systems could be lining up one after another. Won't be scrolling along...sorry.


I know someone from that dirty coast probably doesn’t have much experience traveling outside the south but this is our 18th year in a row going to the Caribbean the last week of June/1st week of July and this is the 1st time it’s been an issue.

Our trip can also be rebooked completely for $150 so it’s not that big of an issue. I’d just like to know sooner rather than later.

But go ahead still being an arse posting about my vacation plans instead of the actual storm.
Posted by Hulkklogan
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2010
43482 posts
Posted on 6/30/24 at 8:53 am to
Posted by purple18
Lafayette
Member since Aug 2009
1580 posts
Posted on 6/30/24 at 9:06 am to
All eyes are on the Euro model now. Both GFS and Canadian have come in between Victoria Tx and Morgan City. The good news is both are showing a strong tropical storm at landfall. Either way, a Cat 4 this early, this far east is very concerning as to what the rest of Hurricane season has in store….
Posted by tarzana
TX Hwy 6-- the Brazos River Valley
Member since Sep 2015
30443 posts
Posted on 6/30/24 at 9:11 am to
It's bullseye is the Brazoria County Coast
Posted by tide06
Member since Oct 2011
19845 posts
Posted on 6/30/24 at 9:12 am to
quote:

Let me tell you about Katrina.

I’m like… who’s gonna tell him?

That town was a mess following Katrina, can still remember national guard with M16s at gas stations on the interstate controlling access in and out.

If you weren’t a resident they wouldn’t let you south of Hattiesburg off I59.
Posted by Crisprdestroyer
Member since Sep 2017
696 posts
Posted on 6/30/24 at 9:20 am to
We had to completely change how we staged for hurricanes after Katrina because of all trees down from Hattiesburg on down.
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
128605 posts
Posted on 6/30/24 at 9:21 am to
quote:

All eyes are on the Euro model now. Both GFS and Canadian have come in between Victoria Tx and Morgan City.


Stressing about every model 10 days out is silly
Posted by notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
61230 posts
Posted on 6/30/24 at 9:27 am to
Yep. And wait for any of the known folks in these threads to indicate what the models or for when we should get worried.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20999 posts
Posted on 6/30/24 at 9:30 am to
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 6/30/24 at 9:30 am to
quote:

this is our 18th year in a row going to the Caribbean the last week of June/1st week of July and this is the 1st time it’s been an issue.


I wouldnt even give that trip a second thought bc of hurricanes.

A major driving into the Caribbean in late June/early July is extremely unusual. In almost every year, shear is gonna dominate a storm in the eastern caribbean.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
463919 posts
Posted on 6/30/24 at 9:33 am to
quote:

A major driving into the Caribbean in late June/early July is extremely unusual.

Exactly why we chose St Lucia for our honeymoon 2 years ago. I did tell my wife the recent updates, though, for this projected "crazy" year
Posted by Pedro
Geaux Hawks
Member since Jul 2008
37939 posts
Posted on 6/30/24 at 9:35 am to
quote:

SlowFlowPro
quote:

wife

bullshite
This post was edited on 6/30/24 at 9:35 am
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
50546 posts
Posted on 6/30/24 at 9:59 am to
Winds up to 120 mph.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

...VERY DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE BERYL STILL STRENGTHENING AS IT
APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED THERE BEGINNING
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 54.9W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
50546 posts
Posted on 6/30/24 at 10:01 am to


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 10.7N 54.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 11.2N 57.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 12.1N 60.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 13.3N 64.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 14.6N 68.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 15.6N 72.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 16.4N 75.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 17.8N 82.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 19.2N 88.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
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