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5
Posted on 6/30/24 at 3:51 pm to lsuman25
Posted on 6/30/24 at 3:52 pm to lsuman25
Posted on 6/30/24 at 3:52 pm to SWLA92
I meant HMON and HWRF are opposite each other
HMON is similar to other global models and NHC forecast
HMON is similar to other global models and NHC forecast
Posted on 6/30/24 at 3:53 pm to MardiGrasCajun
quote:
All alcohol is controlled and sold through Jackson with massive taxes (27%+) added.
Maybe they just buy it in LA when they go down there every day to drive 55 in the hammer lane on 10 and 12?
Posted on 6/30/24 at 3:53 pm to rds dc
quote:
One thing I do wonder about is if the 12z globals are too weak with Beryl as it moves across the Carribean, thus keeping it too far south.
Me too.
Posted on 6/30/24 at 3:57 pm to lsuman25
Great. More Mexican crossing the boarder
Posted on 6/30/24 at 3:58 pm to Duke
So are y’all in the know (rd, Duke, et al) thinking that the cone is too far south??
Posted on 6/30/24 at 3:59 pm to rds dc
I can already see my homeowners Insurance rates going up and it hasnt even hit the gulf yet. 
Posted on 6/30/24 at 4:11 pm to FLObserver
Posted on 6/30/24 at 4:15 pm to MasterAbe1
I lived near Richton. Eye passed very near there.
Weather doesn’t normally frighten me, but winds howling like that for 8 solid hours had me scared. Cracked the brick on the southeast side of our home. The wall was pulsating.
Weather doesn’t normally frighten me, but winds howling like that for 8 solid hours had me scared. Cracked the brick on the southeast side of our home. The wall was pulsating.
Posted on 6/30/24 at 4:25 pm to lsuman25
Just shy of a full "H" north shift
quote:
Only a minor shift to the north has been made
this cycle, following the trend in the latest models.
Posted on 6/30/24 at 4:25 pm to tiger91
quote:
So are y’all in the know (rd, Duke, et al) thinking that the cone is too far south??
If Beryl doesn’t weaken as it traverses the Caribbean over the coming days it would track on the northern side of the cone. What happens once it reaches the gulf is even more uncertain. Anyone from South Padre Island to Morgan City should keep an eye on this one. I don’t believe it would be any further east than that.
Posted on 6/30/24 at 4:33 pm to alphaandomega
quote:
When this storm gets involved with the shear would its strength (cat 4) make the shear weaker and allow the next storm to proceed with lower /no shear?
It seems to me (a novice) that something as powerful as a cat 4 would degrade/push out of the way fronts etc.
Or in a battle between the two does the front hold and remain in place against the next storm?
There are a whole lot of "depends" involved in this. The source, level (low, mid, high), direction, and magnitude of the shear all play a role. But, yes, a stronger, more developed storm might be able to better deal with shear or even displace it vs. a weaker storm. However, there are setups in which the shear will always win, and there are examples of storms basically being decapitated by shear, leaving only a remnant surface circulation.
In this setup, it does appear that a stronger system might be able to fend off the shear that the models are showing.
Posted on 6/30/24 at 4:38 pm to Hangit
quote:
Maybe they just buy it in LA when they go down there every day to drive 55 in the hammer lane on 10 and 12?
Total Wine in Mandeville and Baton Rouge knows us well. ;)
FYI, I don't want to highjack the hurricane thread. I'll end my non-hurricane input now.
This post was edited on 6/30/24 at 4:40 pm
Posted on 6/30/24 at 4:48 pm to rds dc
quote:
there are examples of storms basically being decapitated by shear, leaving only a remnant surface circulation.
I'm deducting points for you not saying "nekkid swirl".
Posted on 6/30/24 at 4:55 pm to LegendInMyMind
The 18z GFS initializes at 977mb still off by almost 20 mb
Posted on 6/30/24 at 5:08 pm to SWLA92
Speak in Hurricane for dummies please! LOL
Posted on 6/30/24 at 5:10 pm to LegendInMyMind
Had a nice Sunday nap
Nobody jumped off the deep end yet?
Nobody jumped off the deep end yet?
Posted on 6/30/24 at 5:11 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:Wasn't it Jeff Foxworthy who once said, "The difference between 'naked' and 'nekkid' is naked means you don't have any clothes on and nekkid means you don't have any clothes on and you're up to something...."?
"nekkid swirl".
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