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re: Aliens come and take away every man-made object. Humans maintain their current knowledge..
Posted on 11/3/24 at 7:34 am to Oilfieldbiology
Posted on 11/3/24 at 7:34 am to Oilfieldbiology
quote:
If we even want to make iPhones again I think it is the time it took people to go from the Stone Age until now.
Y'all underestimating how much stuff would actually be skipped in this scenario... for instance we know antibiotics treat infections ... just that knowledge alone skips a 1000 years of medical research... we wouldn't have to discover electricity again, we know understand it already... believe it or not people know how to do shite...
Posted on 11/3/24 at 7:41 am to lepdagod
We wouldn’t have to discover it, but to build it out again from absolute scratch (ie the freaking wooden spear point age) would mean that most of that knowledge will be forgotten.
Remember, there are no book, video, tablets, anything that can store knowledge outside of individual memory.
Remember, there are no book, video, tablets, anything that can store knowledge outside of individual memory.
Posted on 11/3/24 at 7:43 am to lepdagod
quote:
Y'all underestimating how much stuff would actually be skipped in this scenario... for instance we know antibiotics treat infections ... just that knowledge alone skips a 1000 years of medical research... we wouldn't have to discover electricity again, we know understand it already... believe it or not people know how to do shite...
Time is not your friend, for example you live in Phoenix you now have nothing, can you get water in a couple of days, if not you’re dead. For the optimistic scenario to work all the knowledgeable people have to survive the initial death waves, then they have to come together somehow without being able to communicate with each other over distance, then they have to have the natural resources in that location, and then they have to have the labor pool to mine said resources. I really don’t think you all realize how much current society is built on the shoulders of historical societies. Starting from scratch is not something our population has the skill set for and again if you can’t do it almost immediately over 99% of the population is likely to not survive.
This post was edited on 11/3/24 at 7:44 am
Posted on 11/3/24 at 7:47 am to Oilfieldbiology
quote:
We wouldn’t have to discover it, but to build it out again from absolute scratch (ie the freaking wooden spear point age) would mean that most of that knowledge will be forgotten.
It's the specific building of a IPHONE16 that convolutes this question... how long would you say we have had the knowledge and resources to build the phone in the first place 20-30 years???
Posted on 11/3/24 at 7:56 am to lepdagod
The iPhone was first introduced in 2007. Integrated circuits were invented in 1958. The first computer was 1946.
If we lose every man made object in the world, how many people that remember how to make integrated circuits will even be alive by the time we get back into the copper age? I’m betting very little.
If we lose every man made object in the world, how many people that remember how to make integrated circuits will even be alive by the time we get back into the copper age? I’m betting very little.
Posted on 11/3/24 at 8:01 am to cssamerican
Potable water and hygiene would be an immediate and ongoing issue. Disease would take out most within a year. Survival becomes the focus, not the building of technology and within a couple of generations any talk of past technology becomes nothing but legend.
Posted on 11/3/24 at 8:03 am to Oilfieldbiology
quote:
get back into the copper age
This is we're our point's different... I think those developmental stages(stone, bronze, etc.) would be skipped... what would be the point of them???... In this scenario we maintain CURRENT knowledge
Posted on 11/3/24 at 8:20 am to lepdagod
quote:
In this scenario we maintain CURRENT knowledge
For a single generation. There are no books, no repository of knowledge.
By the way, our population has been reduced by 90%. Humanity currently knows how to make metal, but do you? I sure as frick don’t. What are the chances that the people who know how to make metal survive during a time where agriculture has to be restablished?
Posted on 11/3/24 at 8:40 am to Oilfieldbiology
quote:
By the way, our population has been reduced by 90%.
It's starting to be too many variables... let's take the IPHONE16 bullshite out of it... how long do you think it will take to get back to current technology... your answer was basically the same amount time it took to get here the first time... that's what I'm arguing against not the manufacturing of a IPHONE16
Posted on 11/3/24 at 8:52 am to Oilfieldbiology
quote:
For a single generation.
Not for a single generation... all things known now by this generation wasn't learned by this generation... knowledge don't work like that... in this scenario ain't no time for people to participate in doing no other shite that they don't know... if you good at something that would be your job
Posted on 11/3/24 at 9:13 am to lepdagod
quote:
how long do you think it will take to get back to current technology
I think it would take tens of thousands of years. With absolutely no man made objects remaining on earth, we would essentially be staring at Stone Age before paper.
The people with the knowledge to advance the technology from the 1900’s to the 2000’s may not survive and won’t be able to pass that knowledge on. Do you know how to make paper and ink that will last? Because if we can’t accurately and durably document the information trapped in the minds of the scientists that currently know how to make modern technology, the details required to not have to develop it from scratch will be lost.
Posted on 11/3/24 at 9:43 am to lepdagod
quote:
This is we're our point's different... I think those developmental stages(stone, bronze, etc.) would be skipped... what would be the point of them???... In this scenario we maintain CURRENT knowledge
This MIGHT be true is we just lost some level of technology. You’re not taking into account how many intelligent people would die in short order in the original scenario. For example, Phoenix metro has 5 million people, that’s 5 million people instantly in the middle of a desert who are naked and have no water. They’re all dying. How many would survive in New York metro if this occurred in winter? People who have technology intelligence likely will not survive in the numbers and density needed to do anything of substance.
Here is a basic hypothetical scenario. You are the leader of a small community after all man made things disappeared, you all are farming using a stone, and some homemade rope attached to horse to plow the fields. Resources are very scarce and your community is one setback from starvation. Two strangers wonder into your territory seeking to join your community, one is skilled at building basic tools out of rope, stone, and wood, yet never learned to read, the other has photographic memory of how to design microchips, but has no survivalists skills to speak of. Which one do you except into you community and which one do you tell I’m sorry we can’t use our resources on you?
Posted on 11/3/24 at 12:48 pm to lepdagod
quote:
This is we're our point's different... I think those developmental stages(stone, bronze, etc.) would be skipped... what would be the point of them???... In this scenario we maintain CURRENT knowledge
To some extent, but only lightly and only maybe.
The few people left are starting with nothing, so by default that's the Stone Age. There's no skipping it.
Most people don't know where to find metal ore, so already you're having to assume someone who does is one of the very few who survived AND they live in an area with such ore. Do they have the strength to break apart the small rocks (because they aren't mining into the ground nor cliffsides with sticks) in order to get enough ore to smelt? Do they have the knowledge on how to build a primitive smelter (bonus points if you can tell me what it's called without googling)? Do they then have the knowledge to build a forge? Do they have the knowledge to use the forge to build tools and weapons?
And that's all for just creating a single metal item like pig iron (which is the most impure form of smelted iron), not something like the knowledge (much less resources) needed to manufacture bronze (which requires mixing tin and copper). That said, it would be possible (and even likely) to skip bronze altogether and go straight to steel (steel comes from iron that's had a lot of the impurities removed, then a small amount of carbon is added during smelting). Again, that's assuming this person has all of that knowledge (and survives long enough to use it).
Those are a LOT of assumptions just to get to a "better than likely" chance of getting to the point of making steel within 50 years. To underscore this, without googling can you tell me what's needed to smelt ore? If you asked 100 random people, how many do you think would know the answer?
But... all of this can take place only after their needs of finding a consistent food source and a serviceable shelter have been met (and that's faaaaaaaaaar more time-consuming that I think many understand).
Realistically (at least as realistic as one can be in such a scenario), a person with the mining, smelting and forging knowledge getting lucky enough to hook up with someone with the hunting, fishing, trapping knowledge to keep them both well-fed might be able to achieve steel within a decade but only if they are in an area with easily accessible iron ore.
All of that said, that's just one (or two) people in one small part of the world when there are likely less than 5M people left and they are dispersed wildly all around the globe (meaning someone may well go the rest of their life without seeing another person, or another person from outside their group). The chances of every group having someone with that knowledge is zero, even only 25% of them having that knowledge is so low to be statistically zero. This can also be said of herbalism, farming, etc.
This brings us to the real enemy: time. The amount of time and effort it would take to connect with enough people to propagate this knowledge to the point where it no longer risks being lost with the individual's death would be enormous and that would be for each category of knowledge. This means there would absolutely be knowledge lost, lots of it. Any technological reclamation not achieved, recorded and disseminated to at least a few thriving outposts would likely be lost. From there, many of those unrecorded processes would become stories passed down to descendants, unless they are rediscovered, those stories would become legends, and those legends would become myth.
Posted on 11/3/24 at 12:53 pm to LSU6262
quote:
Humans maintain their current knowledge
With this caveat, 2-3 years.
Posted on 11/3/24 at 1:27 pm to Bard
quote:
This means there would absolutely be knowledge lost, lots of it.
Absolutely correct, but in reality, no one has any of the colossal knowledge being referenced by others. People know tiny little bits and pieces but no broad knowledge. Your carpenter has no idea how to make a nail. Your electrician has no idea how to make copper wire.
Let's say your tribe has a guy that was the greatest diesel mechanic of all time. Great we need that knowledge to maintain the excavator, once we figure out how to build an excavator from the raw earth we are standing on, with nothing but a stick and a rock in our hands.
Ok, so now we fashion the rock into a digging tool, find some dirt good for extracting iron ore (also find a guy who knows what that looks like), find a guy who can make a crucible, find a guy who can make a really hot fire, find a guy who can smelt the iron, find a guy who can smith the smelted iron into a better digging tool. Etc, etc, etc until we have built a shop that can fabricate an excavator that our long dead diesel mechanic can maintain. If somehow we froze him, he would awaken and immediately ask for a diagnostic console so the computer could tell him what to fix.
We will start over from scratch and 20,000 years from now some guy will have a TV show in which he refers to us as ancient aliens who possessed great knowledge and technologies.
This post was edited on 11/3/24 at 3:29 pm
Posted on 11/3/24 at 3:17 pm to DamnGood86
quote:No. I'm not gonna give a month-to-month. I have already explained the timeline. I am giving six months to a year for population reduction down to about half 1 billion that the Earth and very basic agriculture can support.
Otherwise, give a rough month by month description from "naked and afraid" to industrial revolution in six years.
At that point people will have mined coal and ore as they have for centuries. Remember, the given was that mankind still has all of the knowledge that we did. So we will know right where to go to get the materials and just what to do with them.
We will start with Blacksmiths making tools. In two or three months, we will be making molds for mass producing everything from weapons to valve parts and drill bits. Plastic production would begin within six months of population stabilization. Within year two we will have internal combustion engines.
During the third year, we will have mechanized agriculture and pesticides. With a population freed from food hunting and gathering, 10,000 teams will be working on electronics, medicine, dentistry, distribution centers, and all kinds of products.
I think it will take about 10 years to get from that point to where we were in 1950. And then I think it will take 15 years to get from 1950s technology to what we have today. If you add all that up, it comes to 30 years. I threw in an extra 20.
Posted on 11/3/24 at 3:43 pm to Penrod
Would be plunged back into the dark ages. Look how much never came back from the Roman’s after they fell. It could easily take 500-1000 years or maybe never it may evolve totally different this time around. How do we know it hasn’t happened before…. Atlantis may not be all myth.
Posted on 11/3/24 at 5:12 pm to bayoudude
quote:
Would be plunged back into the dark ages. Look how much never came back from the Roman’s after they fell.
That’s because when Rome retreated the knowledge went with them. The OP stipulated that the knowledge remains.
Posted on 11/3/24 at 5:25 pm to Penrod
The knowledge stayed with Romans too. Until that generation died. With no way of storing knowledge, it all passes away. It would pass away in this scenario as well.
Posted on 11/3/24 at 7:07 pm to rintintin
quote:
shite, the Egyptians built the pyramids in like 25 years over 2000 years ago. Yet we'd devolve into dumb apes if we lost all our tools overnight?
Every man made object means books as well. You think anything more the basics or maybe generalized awareness is memorized.
How do we identify, locate, and protect these people?
And consolidate it given in the next year you’ll have 7 billion food chasing enough food to feed maybe 200 million.
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