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Some interesting roster observations using advanced metrics
Posted on 4/26/26 at 5:33 pm
Posted on 4/26/26 at 5:33 pm
I couldnt sleep last night and was bored so I used AI to pull from different advanced stats to gauge our roster and expectations. Not sure anyone else will care but i found it cool. Theres a lot more but i will try to summarize things:
On Offense, it has our RB ranked very high, OL around 10th ( Ruiz the negative), WR room with Tyson added around 13th, but Shough it had ranked 17-20th, which i find a bit low.
total grade is 11-13th for the offense.
On defense, advanced metrics LOVE Chase Young and think he is elite, the metrics think with Christen Miller added the run defense is 12th best run DL, it think Granderson is a solid starter but leaves a big hole in EPA metrics not having another top pass rusher opposite Young. It likes the linebacker room for run stopping and rushing the passer, but very weak in pass coverage. With the DB room, it really likes our safety room and Blackmon as a nickel, It likes Koolaid as a top 20-25 corner but not a true CB1. It does not like Riley at all.
Total grade for the defense was 12-15th
So, it had 3 main suggestions for how to improve from what it believes is a playoff team to a super bowl contender
1, Land a true WR1, which to them is a top 5 WR who dictates coverage presnap.
2. Upgrade CB2 to a solid starter.. basically someone on Koolaid's level
3. Upgrade DE2 to have a more consistent pass rush.
4. Replace Werner with a better pass defender
I dont think we can do #1,
#2 is interesting because Riley was a rookie and could improve... an interesting name it suggested to improve us was Adoree Jackson.
#3 seems we are trying to find some better pass rush with Wilson and Afernee... and for those wondering about Cam, advanced stat metrics favor Cam but its mostly due to amount of reps... their pass rush win rate is pretty similar.
4. I would love to trade Werner. it did suggest free agent Anthony Walker Jr could be a slight pass coverage upgrade and rotate with Werner on pass downs.
Now heres where things get really intriguing.
If Tyler Shough is a top 10 QB and improves from their expectations, we all of a sudden become the #6 offense and super bowl contenders. We no longer need a #1 WR, Our RB becomes a top 5 group and our OL improves.
Now for coaching impact
On defense it believes the roster really fits what Staley wants to do, limit big plays, force long drives, simulate pressure without blitzing a lot. It believes the Staley's scheme improves us 2-3 spots in total EPA on defense.
On offense it really loves the RB and TE room with Kellen's scheme with a solid OL to block for it. It thinks Kellen's use of motion and stacks will help improve the WR room to scheme them open... and layered routes help Shough find simple reads to open WRs. Kellen being the OC improves our EPA/play .04-.07 per play.
On Offense, it has our RB ranked very high, OL around 10th ( Ruiz the negative), WR room with Tyson added around 13th, but Shough it had ranked 17-20th, which i find a bit low.
total grade is 11-13th for the offense.
On defense, advanced metrics LOVE Chase Young and think he is elite, the metrics think with Christen Miller added the run defense is 12th best run DL, it think Granderson is a solid starter but leaves a big hole in EPA metrics not having another top pass rusher opposite Young. It likes the linebacker room for run stopping and rushing the passer, but very weak in pass coverage. With the DB room, it really likes our safety room and Blackmon as a nickel, It likes Koolaid as a top 20-25 corner but not a true CB1. It does not like Riley at all.
Total grade for the defense was 12-15th
So, it had 3 main suggestions for how to improve from what it believes is a playoff team to a super bowl contender
1, Land a true WR1, which to them is a top 5 WR who dictates coverage presnap.
2. Upgrade CB2 to a solid starter.. basically someone on Koolaid's level
3. Upgrade DE2 to have a more consistent pass rush.
4. Replace Werner with a better pass defender
I dont think we can do #1,
#2 is interesting because Riley was a rookie and could improve... an interesting name it suggested to improve us was Adoree Jackson.
#3 seems we are trying to find some better pass rush with Wilson and Afernee... and for those wondering about Cam, advanced stat metrics favor Cam but its mostly due to amount of reps... their pass rush win rate is pretty similar.
4. I would love to trade Werner. it did suggest free agent Anthony Walker Jr could be a slight pass coverage upgrade and rotate with Werner on pass downs.
Now heres where things get really intriguing.
If Tyler Shough is a top 10 QB and improves from their expectations, we all of a sudden become the #6 offense and super bowl contenders. We no longer need a #1 WR, Our RB becomes a top 5 group and our OL improves.
Now for coaching impact
On defense it believes the roster really fits what Staley wants to do, limit big plays, force long drives, simulate pressure without blitzing a lot. It believes the Staley's scheme improves us 2-3 spots in total EPA on defense.
On offense it really loves the RB and TE room with Kellen's scheme with a solid OL to block for it. It thinks Kellen's use of motion and stacks will help improve the WR room to scheme them open... and layered routes help Shough find simple reads to open WRs. Kellen being the OC improves our EPA/play .04-.07 per play.
Posted on 4/26/26 at 6:18 pm to Lsujacket66
I think the saints believe they just drafted a true 1 at WR.
Posted on 4/26/26 at 6:22 pm to touchdownjeebus
quote:
I think the saints believe they just drafted a true 1 at WR.
Yah, I played with this a bit and basically their standard for WR1 is super high, top 5 WR in the league essentially who changes how a defense aligns.
The good thing is he can certainly become a traditional WR1 and if Shough becomes a top 10 QB, the need for a WR1 drops significantly
Posted on 4/26/26 at 6:38 pm to Lsujacket66
did you put Wilson in as the OLB?
nice work.
nice work.
Posted on 4/26/26 at 6:40 pm to FMtTXtiger
quote:
did you put Wilson in as the OLB? nice work.
Yes, and compared him to Cam.. Cam slightly, very slightly rated better than him but nothing crazy.
DE2 pass rush is the 2nd biggest hole on the team behind CB2 according to these advanced metrics.
So maybe Wilson or Afernee can improve and elevate us
Posted on 4/26/26 at 6:45 pm to Lsujacket66
Best part about all this is that most people think we’re at least one year away from being serious contenders. All three suggestions are achievable over two off seasons
Posted on 4/26/26 at 6:53 pm to Spelt it rong
quote:
Best part about all this is that most people think we’re at least one year away from being serious contenders. All three suggestions are achievable over two off seasons
This was my big takeaway. Essentially their numbers say if Shough is who we think he is, we’ve got by far enough on offense to be Super Bowl contenders.
And with Staley’s system it believes we are a good pass rusher and a solid CB2 away from having a Super Bowl contender defense.
It seems we are taking some shots on guys like Wilson and Anfernee.. maybe they can elevate that pass rush. I’d like to bring in Tre White for CB2…
Then I think you see how the season goes and if we are in a position to make a run maybe they trade for a pass rusher
This post was edited on 4/26/26 at 6:54 pm
Posted on 4/26/26 at 6:58 pm to Lsujacket66
Great post.
I think the biggest miss in the draft was overlooking CB / nickel talent. Styles is a project and Hall is athletically limited.
I think the biggest miss in the draft was overlooking CB / nickel talent. Styles is a project and Hall is athletically limited.
Posted on 4/26/26 at 7:07 pm to Jojodaddy
quote:
Great post. I think the biggest miss in the draft was overlooking CB / nickel talent. Styles is a project and Hall is athletically limited.
I’d add DE. I wonder if we were going to take R Mason Thomas or Howell if they got to us… would think they’d have been great fits.
I’m gonna disagree a bit on corner.. I think this was a really weak CB class for boundary corners.. other than McCoy idk who would’ve been an obvious improvement over Riley after the first rd.
And the Saints and advanced stats LOVE Blackmon at nickel safety..
Posted on 4/26/26 at 7:36 pm to Lsujacket66
I feel better about the roster than I have
for a few years…
for a few years…
Posted on 4/26/26 at 8:15 pm to Jojodaddy
quote:
think the biggest miss in the draft was overlooking CB / nickel talent.
Paraphrasing, but saw an interview from Deion a few weeks ago where he said teams don’t value/target guys for the slot in the draft and how they try and just plug guys into those spots. Talked about how big of a mistake it was, because you basically have a backup DB covering teams #2 guy every play
Posted on 4/26/26 at 8:21 pm to Weekend Warrior79
quote:
because you basically have a backup DB covering teams #2 guy every play
Also, the #1 WR
that's what I've been saying.
Think about how many times Colston lined up in the slot. Sure, teams had to account for Jimmy Graham and even Sproles towards the end for Colston, but he cooked there.
Posted on 4/26/26 at 8:52 pm to Spelt it rong
quote:
Best part about all this is that most people think we’re at least one year away from being serious contenders
Honestly, from where we were a year and a half ago to where we are now being serious thoughts for some to win the division and make the playoffs, (basically a coin flip IMO) is almost a miracle in and of itself. Put some good stretches together and have an exciting season and I can definitely wait another year until we are really good.
Posted on 4/26/26 at 9:34 pm to BrianKellysbuyout
quote:
Best part about all this is that most people think we’re at least one year away from being serious contenders Honestly, from where we were a year and a half ago to where we are now being serious thoughts for some to win the division and make the playoffs, (basically a coin flip IMO) is almost a miracle in and of itself. Put some good stretches together and have an exciting season and I can definitely wait another year until we are really good.
Multi year investment into the OL and getting lucky to find our QB in Rd2 and everything changes fast.
On thing that’s holding us back as of now is we don’t really have any elite units. The metrics think we have a high floor team but don’t yet have any elite units.
Now they do rate our RBs, OL and safeties as very good and I think the OL could become elite.
Posted on 4/26/26 at 10:07 pm to Lsujacket66
It's like listening to James Skrmetta. That's a good use of numbers to create strategy.
Posted on 4/26/26 at 11:40 pm to Lsujacket66
Besides Miller, didit factor in Ridgeway coming back also healthy? he's 327 pounds. When he didn't play we gave up 121 yards game rushing. When he did play we only gave up 77. Also I pray that rookie is good enough to take over for Ruiz
Posted on 4/27/26 at 12:55 am to Lsujacket66
Great job on the post, Baw. I don’t see how anyone could downvote this.
Posted on 4/27/26 at 1:37 am to Gonadballbarian
quote:
Besides Miller, didit factor in Ridgeway coming back also healthy? he's 327 pounds. When he didn't play we gave up 121 yards game rushing. When he did play we only gave up 77. Also I pray that rookie is good enough to take over for Ruiz
Yes he was included, and part of why the run defense for the DL was so strong for them. It actually really liked Godchaux vs the run and I’m not as sure about that tbh.
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