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re: Trade season has started, BREAKING: DURANT TO SUNS, frick
Posted on 1/30/23 at 2:12 pm to shel311
Posted on 1/30/23 at 2:12 pm to shel311
It's not just that you have to pay the tax, you also don't get the money you would normally get when you aren't in the tax.
For instance, we'll receive like $17M this year b/c we aren't a tax team.
If you pay $20M or so in tax, for a team like us that's like $40M b/c we are so used to getting that non-tax team payout every year.
For instance, we'll receive like $17M this year b/c we aren't a tax team.
If you pay $20M or so in tax, for a team like us that's like $40M b/c we are so used to getting that non-tax team payout every year.
2
Posted on 1/30/23 at 2:17 pm to TeddyPadillac
quote:
If you pay $20M or so in tax, for a team like us that's like $40M b/c we are so used to getting that non-tax team payout every year.
One thing that has seemed odd to me about the rumors are the big swings and Toronto players we've been associated with don't make since because of what I quoted above. Unless the team has a higher tax tolerance than we're thinking.
Forbes projects a $94 Million EBITA/Operating Income for the Pels this year. That's a good bit above the next closest year that was in the $40s during COVID. If $95ish is the new normal before the expected huge bump in new TV money that's coming in 2 years, maybe the Pels can actually afford more than dipping their toe into the tax.
Posted on 1/30/23 at 2:51 pm to TeddyPadillac
quote:That too
For instance, we'll receive like $17M this year b/c we aren't a tax team.
If you pay $20M or so in tax, for a team like us that's like $40M b/c we are so used to getting that non-tax team payout every year.
This freefall isn't helping. I don't know if there's any chance we'd go into the tax before this deadline, but I do know we would have had a much better chance if we were winning and not a .500 or sub .500 team at the deadline(unless those odds are 0% but you get the point)
Posted on 1/30/23 at 3:48 pm to shel311
quote:
The issue is the further into the tax you go, the bigger the penalty is and I'm confident that's wayyyyyyy deeper than we'll go by like $20mil+
And you haven't even factored that you took in 2 guys and sent out 5, so you'd have to replace multiple roster spots as well.
You could sign Seabron and Liddel to contracts and still be under the cap in that deal (this year).
You still have backfill for this offseason and next (rookies) as well.
This post was edited on 1/30/23 at 3:48 pm
Posted on 1/30/23 at 3:56 pm to 50_Tiger
quote:Luxury tax line is looking to be around $162mil next season. You have us at $175.
You could sign Seabron and Liddel to contracts and still be under the cap in that deal (this year).
You still have backfill for this offseason and next (rookies) as well.
Once you factor in the 1st round draft pick and filling out the rest of the roster, we're at $180-185mil.
Now, including the $17mil or so Teddy mentioned that we won't get for staying under, being that much over carries a huge penalty.
Let's say we settle on $182mil, exactly $20mil over the luxury tax line. My understanding of how the penalty works is we'd pay $45mil in luxury taxes.
It's just not happening and Ayton is also not enough of an upgrade over Jval to add $62+ mil to our payroll+tax next season. Obviously if we had an owner where money wasn't a thing, I'd say go for it, but that ain't realistic for us.
This post was edited on 1/30/23 at 3:59 pm
Posted on 1/30/23 at 4:31 pm to shel311
I just don't see OG being the answer. He's not a good enough shooter.
Posted on 1/30/23 at 4:53 pm to ghost2most
quote:
I just don't see OG being the answer. He's not a good enough shooter.
What position do you envision him playing for the Pelicans? I think he would fulfill the small ball Center we’ve been seeking.
OG is lauded for his insane wingspan and athleticism… and he’s respected around the league as one of the strongest players pound for pound.
OG is my top choice. Although, I don’t believe his market is 3 FRPs, like the Knicks offered. I would stop slightly short of a King’s ransom to acquire his rights.
ETA-
quote:
His size, athleticism, and nonstop motor mean Anunoby has a high floor in the NBA. Even in a worst-case scenario, he will have a long career as an energy big man who can rebound and defend in space. He has an average outside shot and handle for a perimeter player, so he still has a lot to work on offensively, but those become much less pressing issues if he’s playing at center. If there are no long-term issues with his knee, Anunoby’s freakish physical dimensions mean he will be able to handle more minutes in the middle than even Draymond. There will still be plenty of giants at the position, but anyone bigger than Anunoby is going to have trouble staying in front of his point guard in the pick-and-roll. That’s why there aren’t many traditional big men left in the NBA playoffs. In a game without centers, the 6-foot-8 man is king.
This post was edited on 1/30/23 at 6:59 pm
Posted on 1/30/23 at 5:30 pm to ghost2most
quote:
I just don't see OG being the answer. He's not a good enough shooter.
What's your criteria for this? He's a career 37% 3 point shooter and he shot 39% on C&S 3s this year and last year. That's also on decent volume 4.5 C&S 3PAs a game this year.
Also, his career TS% is 57.3% compare that to:
Paul George - 56.8%
Jalen Brown - 57.2%
To me the question on OG isn't is he good enough, he is.
The question is should the Pels pay to time shift. One of Herb/Naji/Dyson becoming an OG level player in 2-3 years isn't unreasonable, but it's going to take 2-3 years. Do you want to pay to try to force open the contention window today?
This post was edited on 1/30/23 at 5:31 pm
Posted on 1/30/23 at 5:37 pm to TigerinATL
quote:Absolutely
Do you want to pay to try to force open the contention window today
Posted on 1/30/23 at 5:41 pm to TigerinATL
Any trade for anyone worth a damn makes this season plus 2 the window. Period.
Posted on 1/30/23 at 5:43 pm to TigerinATL
Dyson and Naji can be it.
I worry about herb. Free throw shooting usually translates but it's been rather underwhelming for catch and shoot open 3s
I worry about herb. Free throw shooting usually translates but it's been rather underwhelming for catch and shoot open 3s
Posted on 1/30/23 at 5:44 pm to shel311
quote:
It's just not happening and Ayton is also not enough of an upgrade over Jval
Also Shel I totally disagree with this. I think he would fit great next to Zion and although his 3pt percentage is pedestrian, him in a new system with probably a coach he likes (Willie) might bring his best out entirely.
I will conceed and say it is a very hard thing to guage with a disgruntled employee though, but there is just no real world where people genuinely believe JV > Ayton. They arent in the same ballpark in terms of skill.
Posted on 1/30/23 at 6:00 pm to TigerinATL
quote:
One of Herb/Naji/Dyson becoming an OG level player in 2-3 years isn't unreasonable, but it's going to take 2-3 years
OG is only one year older than Herb and the same age as Naji. I don’t think this pushes our window up at all, and I don’t think they have a realistic shot to be as good as OG. Only one that makes sense for is Dyson and Dyson and OG will never have the same role.
Posted on 1/30/23 at 6:02 pm to 50_Tiger
Ayton is a superior defender, but for double the cost is that worth it? I think only if you swap out CJ too
Posted on 1/30/23 at 6:04 pm to 50_Tiger
quote:In fairness, this is the full quote:
Also Shel I totally disagree with this
quote:
It's just not happening and Ayton is also not enough of an upgrade over Jval to add $62+ mil to our payroll+tax next season.
Posted on 1/30/23 at 6:32 pm to htran90
quote:
Ayton is a superior defender, but for double the cost is that worth it? I think only if you swap out CJ too
This. Hard to imagine 4 max deals on the books. Ayton would be an ideal 5 for this team but the cost is likely too rich. On the other hand, Pels are not going to contend without fixing the post problems, there is no sense in being a tax team without realistically being a final four type team, hence the smoke around Collins who may/may not put you in that category.
Posted on 1/30/23 at 9:15 pm to Pistol44
I'd still trade you know who...for Mikal Bridges...straight up...if the Suns would do it.
Posted on 1/30/23 at 10:06 pm to Dinky Mulberry
quote:
I'd still trade you know who...for Mikal Bridges...straight up...if the Suns would do it.
Still laughing at that take …Check back with me though in a couple weeks
Posted on 1/31/23 at 1:45 am to Pistol44
What about Jerami Grant at the deadline for Herb/Jaxson/Graham/'24 Pels&Bulls 2nds(or would it have to be '24 Milwaukee 1st instead? I'd like that less obviously)
Could go Zion-CJ-BI-Grant-Jonas, have a bench of Jose-Dyson-Naji-Murphy-Nance reserves Kira-Seabron-Temple-Liddell-Billy (or bring in Karlo Matkovic). Could end up being a rental I guess. Worth it? Can we pay him even if we'd have to trade him at next year's deadline to get under the tax?
Could go Zion-CJ-BI-Grant-Jonas, have a bench of Jose-Dyson-Naji-Murphy-Nance reserves Kira-Seabron-Temple-Liddell-Billy (or bring in Karlo Matkovic). Could end up being a rental I guess. Worth it? Can we pay him even if we'd have to trade him at next year's deadline to get under the tax?
Posted on 1/31/23 at 4:17 am to NannerB_EazyPellyBoi
Grant is not available and will not be available
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