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re: Here to eat my crow about Griff
Posted on 4/16/22 at 12:05 pm to supe12sta12z
Posted on 4/16/22 at 12:05 pm to supe12sta12z
quote:
But we don’t need to be adding mid round picks every single year. But let that fly over your heads. Moar draft picks!
we sort of do…unless you have a this years Lakers situation where you can instead add a top 10 pick.
Cause either the guys we drafted play to their draft position and we become a repeat luxury tax team to keep 7th and 8th guys in the rotation on the roster, or you are going to need to find guys that can give you much of that same production at cheaper prices as time goes on, and develop guys that can replace players like Jonas/CJ as they age, and the mid round is going to be where we find a lot of that.
To summarize: CJ, Herb, and Jonas’s contracts are up after the following season. To retain all three we are likely going to put us in the luxury tax….especially considering
Zion is potentially getting a 35 million+ upgrade this off-season starting that year we have major decisions on CJ/Jonas/Herb.
Hayes may also cost more than we can afford and Nance comes off the books next season as well. Two major choices and no current contingency plan.
Kira and Jose are back ups at this point
Trey a potential great role player, but also someone that may end up more expensive than we can afford down the line depending on choices above.
So in the 2024-2025 season the Pels may be looking at:
Zion: 38 million
BI: 35 million
CJ: 25 million
Jonas: 12 million
Herb: 20 million
Trey/Jose coming up on contract extensions
Now of that “youth” you speak of it also consists of:
Naji/Billy replacement level players, Temple/Clark/Snell guys that likely shouldn’t be in the league.
That’s 5 positions we would be much better served filling with lottery to mid round talent that hopefully 1 or 2 can break out and replace an expensive role player or aging vet core piece. You’ll potentially get one this year, but theirs no guarantee they don’t under develop or bust, and then that’s it.
So again, to me, we need to keep the pipeline flowing, and largely exodus this notion of trading off potential mid round picks for 12-18 million aging vets. Which is what you have suggested. That’s simply not gonna be a sustainable model if the Griff idea of a 10+ year competitive window is the goal, and not just 3-4 years.
This post was edited on 4/16/22 at 12:25 pm
1
Posted on 4/16/22 at 12:07 pm to Bronc
quote:Not gonna lie I think you may be looking way too far into the future. In the NBA things change very fast.
So in the 2025 season the Pels may be looking at:
No need to worry about 4 years down the road.
Posted on 4/16/22 at 12:12 pm to tgr4ever
quote:
Not gonna lie I think you may be looking way too far into the future. In the NBA things change very fast. No need to worry about 4 years down the road.
That’s not 4 years, the 24-25 season is two seasons away.
And we have a ton of pay increases coming up that off-season
If the organization truly wants this to be a 10 year sustainable winning program, thinking only 1 or 2 years ahead ain’t gonna get it done. Especially when people are suggesting just sell off future picks that aren’t the rare jackpot to add cost unsustainable vets.
This post was edited on 4/16/22 at 12:14 pm
Posted on 4/16/22 at 2:21 pm to Bronc
The Pels have all of their picks and they have two all-star players before their prime under control long term. They have Herb who could have all star potential. That doesn’t include the other solid role player and vets you speak of. The team is not an 8th seed team. They are more set-up for contender status over the next couple of seasons. They don’t need to sell the farm.
I am confused why you are so worried. Who is in such a better situation. The Pels may also be able to start attracting some decently affordable vets in FA also. The only contract the Pels probably regret is Devonte’s contract. It is only $12 million also. I would let Devonte’s contract play out and trade it when it is non guaranteed.
I am confused why you are so worried. Who is in such a better situation. The Pels may also be able to start attracting some decently affordable vets in FA also. The only contract the Pels probably regret is Devonte’s contract. It is only $12 million also. I would let Devonte’s contract play out and trade it when it is non guaranteed.
Posted on 4/16/22 at 2:29 pm to Colonel Flagg
quote:
I am confused why you are so worried.
I'm not worried about anything, I'm only arguing against the idea of treating our pipeline of draft picks like some easily disposable asset to bring in expensive vets.
Cause
1.) its simply not really feasible financially outside of a very short term window(not sure how necessary that even is anyways)
2.) It's short-sighted and antithesis to what Griff has claimed his goal is with the organization, which is not to run this like an all-in Lebron-style franchise, but to be a Spurs-like decade long contender.
And you only achieve that by recognizing that we are approaching the luxury tax cycle of this core and to continue past the next few years will require drafting and developing to both sustain that core, and find new core pieces to take the aging one's places.
This post was edited on 4/16/22 at 2:31 pm
Posted on 4/16/22 at 10:17 pm to Bronc
quote:
to be a Spurs-like decade long contender.
Exactly. Big-market teams can sign ring-hunters, they can entice big-name free agents, and they can afford the tax bills to keep a roster stuffed with stars.
We can't do those things, so we have to build sustained greatness in the draft.
The Spurs had a top end of Robinson and Duncan, but then they drafted Parker, Ginobili, and then Kawhi -- and Kawhi was the highest of those at #15. Hitting on late picks is what enabled the Spurs dynasty.
If we don't get lots of production out of guys on minimum contracts, then we can't afford to keep our stars. Fortunately, we have Herb and Jose on minimum contracts for two more years, and we have Trey on a comfortable rookie contract.
We are fortunate that we have a young group of Zion, Jaxson, Kira, Trey, Naji, Jose, and Herb. That collection is going to develop and improve significantly next season, and we should contend.
We still have the picks to make one more significant trade to upgrade the roster, but that's it. And I don't see that happening unless the opportunity is significant. Otherwise, we should definitely be drafting and developing someone each season.
Just like drafting Kawhi extended the Spurs greatness, drafting well in the next few years can extend our greatness. Failure to do would put an expiration date on our window of opportunity.
Posted on 4/17/22 at 2:06 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Fortunately, we have Herb and Jose on minimum contracts for two more years,
We actually signed Jose for 4 years.
Posted on 4/17/22 at 2:36 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Just like drafting Kawhi extended the Spurs greatness, drafting well in the next few years can extend our greatness.
don’t forget that the spurs traded George Hill, a team/coach/fan favorite and one of the key leaders on the team to get that 15th pick for kawhi. It also freed up a salary and roster spot.
with the lakers pick this year the pels can add “that guy” right now, without parting with any key pieces until the salary/roster crunch begins with zions new deal.
pels have 14 guaranteed contracts for 2022 plus the #8 pick incoming. They have two 2nd round picks as well that they cannot roster...
This post was edited on 4/17/22 at 2:39 am
Posted on 4/17/22 at 6:14 am to DallasTiger45
The best thing Griff has done this season is doing less interviews and saying more low key.
The more he talked the last few years the worse it got.
The more he talked the last few years the worse it got.
Posted on 4/17/22 at 8:13 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
CJ is aging
Cj have 5+ years still left in him, he will be an elite spot up shooter in his last couple of years
Posted on 4/17/22 at 9:12 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
We still have the picks to make one more significant trade to upgrade the roster, but that's it. And I don't see that happening unless the opportunity is significant. Otherwise, we should definitely be drafting and developing someone each season.
I don’t think we need to make upgrades to the roster using draft capital. The only questionable contract/contributor is Graham. I think I would let it progress until it is a positive trade asset as an non guaranteed contract.
With axiom healthy the Pels have 4 players who can create their own elite offense:
Zion, BI, CJ, and JV
This post was edited on 4/17/22 at 9:13 am
Posted on 4/17/22 at 9:24 am to Colonel Flagg
We need a dead to rites shooter. Maybe Trey is that guy. He seems to fit the part.
Posted on 4/17/22 at 9:35 am to PrayingMantis
quote:
The melt of the media and lakers fans will be biblical if the lakers pick lands #1
What do they care, they gave up 2X #2 draft players along with those 1st round picks and pick swaps. Both players would greatly improve their roster too...
Posted on 4/17/22 at 9:39 am to armsdealer
lakers alternate history
Jrue holiday (or similar)
lonzo ball/josh hart
Brandon ingram
Lebron James
ivica zubacs
Jrue holiday (or similar)
lonzo ball/josh hart
Brandon ingram
Lebron James
ivica zubacs
Posted on 4/17/22 at 9:56 am to cgrand
frick them and their alternate history. Gimme dem picks!
Posted on 4/17/22 at 10:57 am to cgrand
quote:
lakers alternate history Jrue holiday (or similar) lonzo ball/josh hart Brandon ingram Lebron James ivica zubacs
They actually would have just taken Garland at 4 instead of trading it to us. He was a Klutch client.
Wound have been a nice young team around lebron.
Posted on 4/17/22 at 1:22 pm to Colonel Flagg
quote:
I don’t think we need to make upgrades to the roster using draft capital
I don't think that we can win a title with Valanciunas as our center. Some lineups just run him off the floor, as we saw in our last game. He's too big of a defensive liability in some situations, and he's not getting any younger and quicker, either.
Could Jaxson still develop into that guy? Yes, but it's far from guaranteed. The starting center position needs upgrading eventually.
Posted on 4/17/22 at 1:54 pm to tgr4ever
Good sport organizations look 3-5 years into the future.
Posted on 4/17/22 at 2:17 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
don't think that we can win a title with Valanciunas as our center.
I agree that some teams will give JV hell, take the clippers game for example, but that doesn't mean JV can't be an integral part of a championship caliber team. It just means that he should be a 4th offensive option at best and that we need to have an athletic switchable defender backing him up for when teams do that. Nance definitely has the ability defensively to be that guy, i just wish he had a little more 3 to his game. Even against teams like the clips JV could be huge as a primary/secondary scorer vs 2nd units. I think we should all recognize that there isn't 1 way to build a contender. The Bucks and Lakers both were big teams who didn't shoot a ton of 3's. Played a ton of 2 big man sets, but could go small and be switchable. We honestly are built in that vein but with also having a ton of young athletic wings to throw out there. If the right player with rhe right personality was there as an upgrade to JV then sure we should do it, but our locker room and comradery should still be of primary concern.
Posted on 4/17/22 at 2:23 pm to cajun_tiger
JV starts a 2 year extension next season. He will be the center next season and will start next to zion. I’m more interested in closing lineups and whether zion and Trey can rebound their positions. Pels aren’t getting an upgrade at center from JV, they can’t afford it anyway. It will be more likely that they ship him out after next season to help the salary situation
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