re: Justin Fields, the Chicago Bears and a quarterback conundrum

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The Bears are 4-2 since Fields came back

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Fields has 5 TD passes in those 6 games, and 4 out of those 6 games a sub 90 QB rating.

Fields completed 60.4% of his passes in those 6 games, which would be Zach Wilson level bad. Would be good for 29th in the NFL.

Fields averaged 6.3 YPA in those 6 games, which would be 25th in the NFL.

The Bears defense carried them in those games, giving up 17/16/20/13/10/31 in those games. Fields was his normal mediocre self.



Disclaimer: I didn't check his rushing stats. They were probably good, but I'd argue fro the sake of this greater discussion, his rushing is largely irrelevant, because if he can't become a top 20 NFL passer, he'll never be even an average QB, running or not.

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Always a risk with a rookie, could be Stroud, could be Young

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I'll take the risk when the risk is the #1 pick, one of the better QB prospects in the last 10 years, and the alternative is a below avg QB going into year 4.

As a Bear fan, they need to get rid of Fields.

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QB is just the hardest position maybe in all of sports to get right. You could draft a potential all time great that WOULD have been an all time great at another spot, but he stinks because of where he was drafted: wrong system, gets beat to death behind a horrible OL, etc.

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I know a lot will disagree with me here, and I’m not trying to say Mac Jones is or could’ve been an all time great, but Mac would have flourish in the San Fran system IMO. As good as Mr Irrelevant? Maybe, maybe not. Better than Trey Lance? Almost certainly. Better than the Patriot’s Mac Jones? Again, almost certainly.

Such a crap shoot for QBs.

Move on from Fields. Draft QB. Simple

Whether fair or not, it feels a bit like he’s playing for his job Sunday. If he replicates his performance from this past week, I think he’s back and they try to get the Pats/Commanders in a bidding war and take MHJ at 2/3. If his performance is closer to the Cleveland game, I think they move on.

The problem with looking at his stats like this from a boxscore vacuum is you don’t get the full story. VS the Browns, He threw a 65 yard DIME on the button to Robert Tonyan that Tonyan just flat out dropped. That goes for a TD and changes that entire game. Both of his INTs in this game were on Hail Mary throws and one of them literally hit the turf and the NFL never changed the ruling for some reason lol.

Vs Detroit, late in the 4th Q, he throws another deep shot dime to rookie Tyler Scott. Scott inexplicably slows down on the route and misses him by a foot. If he connects on that the Bears beat Detroit.

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How long do you have with their defense though? Will a drafted QB become better than what Fields can be in year two?

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I wouldn’t have thought so a few months ago. However if they would have kept the pick and drafted CJ Stroud last year, I would have laughed. But they would be in the playoffs right now.

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That would be an insane way to make this important of a decision but it’s the Bears so I’m not ruling it out.

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I don’t disagree, but we know how much the McCaskeys hate the Pack.

For the record I’m a Bears fan (and haven’t been an OSU fan for nearly 15 years despite my username, so no attachment to Fields or MHJ as Buckeyes, for clarity). I was at Soldier Field both of the last two weeks. I do love Fields so I’m biased, but as you mentioned, his teammates love him too and the city does also. I think the former matters slightly. I don’t think the latter really does/should, although I’d note Chicago is not an easy market to be the QB, and Fields seems to embrace it and vice versa. I’m not sure a guy like Caleb would have a good time with the Chi media/fan scrutiny.

I think in general people are looking at it a bit too much as “Caleb vs Fields” when really in my opinion it should be “Caleb vs haul” which even further boils down to “Caleb”. If you think Caleb is a Lamar/Mahomes/Allen/Burrow, draft him. If you don’t think he is, I’d take the haul. Even if Fields isn’t the long-term answer, you can’t really go wrong with getting a draft haul and not drafting Caleb unless he does become that elite QB.

The contract clock is a bit overrated in my opinion* because if you’re trading down, you’re going to save cap with those extra first round picks anyway rather than have to fill those with free agent signings. And if you draft MHJ (after trading down, no way you should draft him at 1), you get your badly-needed WR2 on a rookie deal rather than overpay in free agency for a WR 2 (and MHJ will not only be cheaper, he’ll almost certainly be way better than any FA options).

As far as Fields himself, he has nearly all the physical tools you could want in a QB: arm talent, size, strength, speed, demeanor, leadership. He’s definitely improved in certain areas like anticipation, but could still grow more there, and consistency in general. I think he also shows more ability to utilize anticipation throws to Moore/Kmet, which might mean it’s more of a trust thing for Justin rather than an inability to do it. The only things that truly concern me are his slow release and the 4th quarter play (which I still don’t really understand since he generally appears cool/calm/confident, so I’m not sure if it’s a weird statistical fluke or actual legitimate issue).

*(You also can just pick up Fields’ 5th-year option for 2025 and don’t need to extend him this offseason for 2026; that gives a bit of options and more time to evaluate too. Not ideal if you pass on Caleb if Fields doesn’t work out, but that ties into what I said earlier: if Caleb’s not elite, the haul might be the better result anyway. Then draft a different QB, get one in free agency/trade, etc., after next year or 2025.)

Exactly. The people in here who are completely shitting on Fields are not as invested as we are lol. We’ve seen the incredible highs but also the lows. As you build the team around him with an incredible haul from the trade, and from his own growth, this team suddenly becomes a MAJOR problem in the NFC.

Regardless the Bears are sitting on a gold mine.

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But Chicago's embattled leaders, should Poles and Eberflus return, also need to win in 2024. Are they prepared to hitch their wagon to a rookie, even a supremely talented one?

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Or thought of differently, they might enjoy that they can blame next year’s results on a rookie QB.