Justin Fields, the Chicago Bears and a quarterback conundrum

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Three seasons and 37 starts into his NFL career, Fields' version of the Bears has at times appeared tantalizingly close to a breakthrough. The No. 11 pick in the 2021 draft has displayed physical gifts, command of an offense and clear leadership qualities -- but on a sporadic basis. He has endured head coach and coordinator changes amid a roster teardown and an attempted rebuild, while working alongside an offensive supporting cast that has done him few favors.

The Bears have made strides with Fields at quarterback, but as the 2023 season draws to a close Sunday against the Green Bay Packers, Chicago's brain trust must determine whether the 24-year-old still represents the future, and the decision is complicated.

Two of the men positioned to make the call on Fields, second-year general manager Ryan Poles and coach Matt Eberflus, are not guaranteed to be back in 2024. Poles, who has worked well with his boss, first-year team president Kevin Warren, per sources, appears poised to return. Eberflus' future is a little more uncertain after a second straight losing season, though the Bears' 7-5 record over the past 12 games bolsters his case. The presence of the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft, acquired by the Bears in a March trade with the Carolina Panthers, looms over all the key figures.

While Fields has good relationships with Poles, Eberflus and all of Chicago's decision-makers, the top pick offers the possibility that USC quarterback Caleb Williams, North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye or someone else could be a better long-term answer for a franchise that has not known true quarterback stability since Sid Luckman helped revolutionize the passing game in the 1940s. But Chicago's embattled leaders, should Poles and Eberflus return, also need to win in 2024. Are they prepared to hitch their wagon to a rookie, even a supremely talented one?

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Though the progress is undeniable, it's when you zoom out and take in the totality of Fields' three-year career that the picture becomes fuzzier and complicates the organization's long-term evaluation.

Through Sunday's games, Fields ranks last in the NFL this season among 31 qualified quarterbacks in fourth-quarter completion percentage (51.8%), is 25th in yards per attempt (5.9), tied for 29th in fourth-quarter interceptions (6) and 30th in QBR (20.4), per ESPN Stats & Information research.

Since joining the league in 2021, Fields is last among 38 qualified quarterbacks in fourth-quarter interceptions (16), 36th in completion percentage (56.2%) and 33rd in QBR (41.4). Conversely, his touchdown-to-interception ratio of 4.3 in the first three quarters this season is the NFL's fourth best among 31 qualified quarterbacks.

When evaluators around the league watch Fields, they can't help but notice what holds him back -- mainly, a tendency to hold on to the ball too long from the pocket, failing to see routes develop. He's last in the league among 31 qualified quarterbacks in average time per pass (3.23 seconds) in 2023, and last among 38 qualified quarterbacks in that metric since entering the league (3.10 seconds). In 37 career starts, Fields has surpassed 225 passing yards six times. Eighteen NFL starters average at least 230 yards per game this season.

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