re: Jim Caldwell Just Kicked a FG down 7 with sub-3 minutes Left

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In fairness, beyond some nebulous references to "the statistics", the "Caldwell was wrong" crowd hasn't delivered much, either.

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it comes down to them, even with the FG, still needing a TD to win (or tie) the game.

4 yards from the first

14 yards from the endzone


was a nice opportunity to get that TD.

Might want to wait til the game is over before spouting off next time.

Could it be just a simple case of you feel that 3 minutes left is not a lot of time and that he thinks it is.

The NFL is much better at stopping those fourth down tries and is also way better at getting points at the end of halves.

You call it stupid and wrong based on your experience. I think he took a gamble, he was playing chess and you are used to watching checkers.

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Might want to wait til the game is over before spouting off next time.

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The result of the game doesn't change anything.

The only justification is that he was extending the game and needed the Bears to get the ball to win.. By kicking the field goal he got what he wanted out of the Bears offense.. Predictable... If he goes for it and misses, he still gets the predictable offense without the potential to win.. If he goes for it and eventually scores, he has to contend with his defense playing their usual shitty two minute drill with only the thought of overtime barring a turnover.. Honestly, going for it was probably the right call but kicking is easily justifiable to me

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The NFL is much better at stopping those fourth down tries and is also way better at getting points at the end of halves.

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Are they? Go look up Brian Burke's blog. He's an Annapolis grad that has studied this for a living. His blog is dormant now because he just got hired by ESPN this summer, but he has a bunch of posts on this topic. The long story short is that coaches don't realize how important field position is. Kicking a FG likely doesn't improve the chance of winning and probably lessens it.

People in here saying the fact that Detroit winning makes this all okay are missing the point. Just because you get the desired result does not make it the correct decision at the time.

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Lions coach Jim Caldwell decided on a 32-yard field goal with 2:46 left in regulation instead of going for it on fourth-and-4 from the Bears 13. The drive was extended with a fake punt when Isa Abdul-Quddus took a direct snap and ran for 30 yards to easily convert a fourth-and-2 from the Detroit 32.

Caldwell put faith in his defense and it delivered, holding Chicago to a three-and-out possession and getting the ball back at the Detroit 34 with 2:23 and no timeouts left.

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I come in here to join in on the bashing of Caldwell, but the more I see the more Im with him on the call.

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regardless of the outcome, it was the wrong call

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I will grant you the statistical angle, but games are played with context, which statistics strips away. So in that sense a decision can be statistically the least likely to succeed, and contextually the correct one given other variables.

Given that Detroit had held Chicago's running game, and that Chicago made the incorrect choice in running the ball three times in a row. We can assume that Chicago knew that Detroit was going to call a timeout in after every down. For me, the key play was the 2nd and 5, where Forte ran it for one yard. Since it is a relatively short yardage situation, Chicago could have passed at that moment, since the net effect of time off the clock would have been the same whether it was a run or an incomplete pass. What Detroit would have gained was a timeout if it was an incomplete pass.

Chicago played into Detroit's hands by being risk-averse as well. I don't know the statistical outcomes of the 2nd and 5's with 2:38 left in the game up by three, but I'm not sure three straight runs would have been the best strategy given what happened on first down. It all depends on if Chicago would have been comfortable gifting Detroit a timeout had there been an incomplete pass. Getting a first down at that moment was paramount, and would have killed the game. The play calling should have reflected that.

You and your racism you fricking idiot.

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Statistically, you should always go for it on 4th down. But, coaches will never do that because the consequences of a short field is a deterrent.

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Thats obviously factored into the statistics. They will never do it because football culture is not a particularly intellectual one. As evidenced by this thread. And you should not always go for it on 4th. But over half of the time you should.