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re: Jim Caldwell Just Kicked a FG down 7 with sub-3 minutes Left
Posted on 10/18/15 at 3:59 pm to SlowFlowPro
Posted on 10/18/15 at 3:59 pm to SlowFlowPro
What was the down and distance?
4th and 25 on the 30 would warrant a FG kick.
4th and 25 on the 30 would warrant a FG kick.
1
Posted on 10/18/15 at 4:01 pm to fightin tigers
it was 4th and 4 at the chigago 14
Posted on 10/18/15 at 4:02 pm to SlowFlowPro
What was the line on the game?
for two reasons. A. If you're the better team and/or at home, you extend the game. Most will agree that the Lions have a more talented roster than the Bears, who kind of infamously punted 10 times at Seattle...
B. it might have mattered in a gambling context.
You have to kick between a 30 and 45 yard field goal for it to be a good call... shorter and you might as well go for 7. Longer and you risk missing it too much
for two reasons. A. If you're the better team and/or at home, you extend the game. Most will agree that the Lions have a more talented roster than the Bears, who kind of infamously punted 10 times at Seattle...
B. it might have mattered in a gambling context.
You have to kick between a 30 and 45 yard field goal for it to be a good call... shorter and you might as well go for 7. Longer and you risk missing it too much
Posted on 10/18/15 at 4:03 pm to SlowFlowPro
Where are you, idiot?
Posted on 10/18/15 at 4:04 pm to Lester Earl
Yeah, seems like a bad call. Converting that 1st was probably less likely.
Guess he figured he was going to have to get a defensive stop and score a TD if he went for it and didn't convert. At least he wins if he can make that FG.
Guess he figured he was going to have to get a defensive stop and score a TD if he went for it and didn't convert. At least he wins if he can make that FG.
This post was edited on 10/18/15 at 4:08 pm
Posted on 10/18/15 at 4:05 pm to hbuc88
LOL, now SFP thinks he's a football expert too?
Has he not learned from his NBA posts?
Has he not learned from his NBA posts?
Posted on 10/18/15 at 4:07 pm to cubsfan5150
quote:
LOL, now SFP thinks he's a football expert too?
Has he not learned from his NBA posts?
Posted on 10/18/15 at 4:08 pm to fightin tigers
What was the score when they kicked it? Bc if you're down 7, 3 doesn't help you. You still need a td eventually so might as well go for it
Posted on 10/18/15 at 4:09 pm to hendersonshands
quote:obviously
Even if it works out it was statically the wrong call
Everyone's trying to gotcha SFP here but he's right
Just listen to Les. 7 is a lot more than 3.
Posted on 10/18/15 at 4:10 pm to chalmetteowl
quote:
What was the score when they kicked it?
i don't remember. subtract 13 from tehir final score and 3 from chicago's
Posted on 10/18/15 at 4:10 pm to chalmetteowl
quote:
What was the score when they kicked it? Bc if you're down 7, 3 doesn't help you. You still need a td eventually so might as well go for it
they were down 7 so the FG put them within 4. It worked out but it wasn't a very sound decision
Posted on 10/18/15 at 4:13 pm to chalmetteowl
Again, I assume he believed he didn't have the ability to get the 1st.
Statistically, you should always go for it on 4th down. But, coaches will never do that because the consequences of a short field is a deterrent.
Obviously, a short field wasnt a threat here, so it makes me wonder what his motivation was.
Statistically, you should always go for it on 4th down. But, coaches will never do that because the consequences of a short field is a deterrent.
Obviously, a short field wasnt a threat here, so it makes me wonder what his motivation was.
This post was edited on 10/18/15 at 4:14 pm
Posted on 10/18/15 at 4:15 pm to Lester Earl
thing is, that's absolutely the right call to kick it up until crunch time. The first 50 minutes of the game, you kick it so as not to chase points
Posted on 10/18/15 at 4:15 pm to sms151t
quote:I'm certain the actual math would disagree with you here.
Going for it is a negative.
Posted on 10/18/15 at 4:16 pm to Patrick_Bateman
quote:process vs results
And if Caldwell's decision happens to work and they win the game, I'd say that makes you look like an idiot.
Posted on 10/18/15 at 4:17 pm to SlowFlowPro
Of course Dungy loves him. He loves all the black coaches
Dude only has a job because he's black
Dude only has a job because he's black
Posted on 10/18/15 at 4:19 pm to dallastiger55
I love fail threads like this one
Posted on 10/18/15 at 4:23 pm to HeadCoach
quote:People using the end result, pretty scary to have that much of a lack of understanding of the issue here.
I love fail threads like this one
Posted on 10/18/15 at 4:25 pm to shel311
this thread reminds me of playing live limit poker for years 
this thread also reminds me why the zen of poker is one of the best books i've ever read, and why poker was so important to my advancement as a person
this thread also reminds me why the zen of poker is one of the best books i've ever read, and why poker was so important to my advancement as a person
Posted on 10/18/15 at 4:31 pm to shel311
In fairness, beyond some nebulous references to "the statistics", the "Caldwell was wrong" crowd hasn't delivered much, either.
Each scenario is different. Maybe Caldwell was an idiot again. Maybe he banked on the Bears being conservative and using his timeouts to be, gasp, aggressive and go for a win.
As Gregg Easterbrook never stops saying, "the statistics" say to always go for it on 4th down. There's a reason why no pro coach has taken his advice.
Each scenario is different. Maybe Caldwell was an idiot again. Maybe he banked on the Bears being conservative and using his timeouts to be, gasp, aggressive and go for a win.
As Gregg Easterbrook never stops saying, "the statistics" say to always go for it on 4th down. There's a reason why no pro coach has taken his advice.
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