CFB betting thread Week 9

But should have stated that your record is looking good. That is ATS and not ML, correct for the year?

East coast team going west….. take the west coast.

My grok prompt picks went 3-0 last week on NFL so Im have to wager with them

Taking FL +11.5

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That is ATS and not ML,

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ATS

They're one of the 23

Amazing how if there's clear established contradictory trends between 2 teams (at least 2 prior weeks of play to support it) and see lines that run inverse to those trends, example: Texas favored over Ole Miss last week given the previous few weeks, just how often the team on the downward trend aka the opposite of easy money wins.

I'm not saying it's rigged, but if you start looking at lines and pick them as if it WERE rigged, e.g. establishing trends and putting sucker lines out there to attract a disproportionate amount of money and then have that side lose, you start to see weeks like that 23-10 one fairly regularly. And virtually never have a sub .500 weeks. It's a very strange coincidence

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Sacramento State +10

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I know you have a model and you want to follow it, but these guys are 1-7, with all losses by 11+, and the last 6 games they've lost by 17+, and their lone victory is against a shitty swac school.

Arizona ML
NW ML
Cincy +7
OK St -9.5
UCF -1.5
AF -1.5
App St +5.5
Oregon St -6

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ran it on 5 years of lines, a favorite coming off 2 straight losses against a dog that won its last 2 covered 46.5%

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This isn't what I said at all

The logic is simple

Step 1: find and ~evaluate public expectation for teams going into a matchup, particularly teams featured nationally(ABC/CBS/NBC/ESPN/FOX)

Step 2: find lines that counter that expectation. This could be a favorite being too favored(Miami -19.5 vs Pitt after looking mediocre vs Clemson and getting taken to OT at home by FSU), an underdog being too close to even(UCF +7 coming off b2b losses vs #2 BYU), or a perceived dog being favored outright(South Carolina -2.5 after Tenner just beat Bama by 16)

Step 3: evaluate where the majority of the public money ends up, based on 1&2

Step 4: take the side opposite the money

Whether it's rigged or not, it's hysterical people go along with blame shite on the refs who are either grossly incompetent or flat out corrupt. In what galaxy do you think an official is rigging games without any of the coaches/players in on it? The same goes an officiating crew that continuously makes atrocious calls to perpetually compromise legitimate results...they're the scapegoat, and compensated for it

shite's WWE, and so blatantly obvious when you step back and see it for what it really is

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Step 1: find and ~evaluate public expectation for teams going into a matchup, particularly teams featured nationally(ABC/CBS/NBC/ESPN/FOX)

Step 2: find lines that counter that expectation. This could be a favorite being too favored(Miami -19.5 vs Pitt after looking mediocre vs Clemson and getting taken to OT at home by FSU), an underdog being too close to even(UCF +7 coming off b2b losses vs #2 BYU), or a perceived dog being favored outright(South Carolina -2.5 after Tenner just beat Bama by 16)

Step 3: evaluate where the majority of the public money ends up, based on 1&2

Step 4: take the side opposite the money

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So your model is “bet on sports”