LSUTIGERS74

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I agree with this

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It is still free trial for now, haven't decided when i will pull it back but really appreciate everyone that has taken a look at it, shame I got anchored on this thread and you have to go to page 4 to find it. this week I will lock in the tiers on Saturday morning around 10am to prevent it throwing any games out last minute due to updating spreads from Vegas last minute. This changed a few picks way to late to readjust. Also my twitter feed has the free CBB picks until I get the algo on the site.It is even more picky on the games, maybe 1 a day if not at all.

actually just ran a parlay analysis from backtest using 3 game strategy and elite was a better historical win rate with 38% using just elite. The probability games from 57-59% performed better than large prob games.

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LSU999

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The Tier C Fade on Troy at my lunch as well, these are just bonus bets to try so I only play 1U if I play at all, last week I should have played because they went 5-1 (63.4% WR on 2025)

For reference last week I didn't play any of the Tier C Fades, I only played Tier A (went 4-2, betting 2U as these are higher prob.) and Elite (went 2-2, betting 1U). I would post my results but can't figure out how to post a image without twitter/X link (tried google drive url but that didn't work).

What's interesting is the Troy vs OD game flipped to a Tier A at last minute with closing line movement and covered with OD pick (I wish I had seen it in time as I had already taken the Troy fade). This is one of the nuances of the system with betting earlier with lines that are still moving.

I know see I got anchored.

Took the fade with Troy +10

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JimTiger72

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This AI tooling is in the works but haven't gotten that far down the development path on add-ons. For now the algo takes all the games for the week in an initial run and creates a set of data for the full set, then my weekly pick generator tosses out games that have poor probability and edge (weeding out), then it takes the remainder of games that have a decent set up and grades them. That is why there is only 21 games even considered for a pick out of the ~52 games this week.

Site is back up, thats my fault I crashed it late last night trying to get picks to auto update with spread movements.

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Gings5

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Yes thats the system, it doesn't work on individual picks. The model is based on the set for the win rate in tier A.

Tonights pick was NIU vs Mass at -10.5 and covered by a mile. 1-0 to start the week 12 picks.

You can bet other tiers but typically more bets to place to meet WR expectancy. Tier C is all fades, so bet opposites (almost always dogs to get WR of ~61%, last week was 5-1 on those and was an outlier). I use a 2U (tier A) and 1U on all other if I decide to take. For example Alabama current spread at -5.5 falls into Tier B but I know it was a Tier A earlier in the week with -6.5 spread but when spread dropped market probability increased which thru our edge lower and out of our threshold.

Wouldn't be shocked at that win rate for MLV. All the professional sports are tough to grade because Vegas is so tuned in but CFB and CBB the algos can find an edge. Noting that I am working on a CBB algo currently and it is completely different and highly selective. NFL is completely off the table even with the large data set, can't even come close to finding a profitable setup.

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ks_nola

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Great question about the Alabama line movement!
You're right that getting -5.5 is better for betting (easier to cover), but here's what matters for tier classification:

CURRENT Model LINE: Alabama -6.0
I just ran our model with live API data:
• Current spread: -6.0 (Consensus/DraftKings)
• Edge: 25.01pp
• Tier Status: STILL Tier A

LINE COMPARISON
• -6.5 (original): 26.26pp edge ? Tier A
• -6.0 (current model line): 25.01pp edge ? Tier A
• -5.5 (some books): 23.76pp edge ? Tier B

KEY POINTS
Our picks use model lines (Consensus/DraftKings)
Current model line is -6.0, which qualifies as Tier A (25.01pp = 25pp)
Some sportsbooks show -5.5, which is better for betting but drops below Tier A threshold (23.76pp < 25pp)
Tier A requires =25pp edge - this is strictly enforced in the algo.

BOTTOM LINE
Alabama is STILL Tier A based on the current model line (-6.0).
If your book shows -5.5:
• You're getting a better line (easier to cover)
• Real win probability likely ~62-64% (vs 60% at -6.0)
• Technically Tier B by our criteria, but still an excellent play
Either way, it's a strong pick. The -5.5 line is objectively better for betting, even if it drops below the Tier A threshold.

As of note I booked yesterday at -6.5 and would much rather have the -5.5 that ESPN Bets shows currently even in tier B!

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High C

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Yes the algo only likes favorites and is extremely high probability (~85%) on 4 years of data for home favorites. In the 4 years of backtesting it has only ever picked a dog once (went 1-0), I use the tier C for fades as that is where the dogs are ~61.7% win rate betting against the pick.