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re: ATL Thread | 2023 offseason hot takes + discussion
Posted on 10/25/23 at 11:19 am to VinegarStrokes
Posted on 10/25/23 at 11:19 am to VinegarStrokes
quote:
we open at Philly next year.
I'd be tempted to have Strider throw at Harper in the first inning, regardless of the circumstances. Set the fricking tone. Even better that we are in their stadium. Show that we don't give a shite about their environment.
I endorse this.
0
Posted on 10/25/23 at 11:20 am to VinegarStrokes
quote:
I do have a feeling, however, that he'll add 2-3 key solutions this offseason. I think specifically that will come in the form of 1 SP and 2 RP additions.
I agree.
Posted on 10/25/23 at 11:24 am to Broski
quote:
Joc Pederson being on this team doesn't win that series.
Maybe you're right. But with all the Twitter flack Bohm got for breaking his bat, I'd have rather seen some guys do that than clowning at opposing fans.
quote:
At some point he's going to have make win-now moves at the deadline.
Agreed. He's going to have to get over his SP phobia.
And again, he knows this finances better than we do. He may have his hands tied. But there are definitely areas that could be/need to be upgraded.
Posted on 10/25/23 at 12:39 pm to Broski
The DBacks pitching was far worse than ours by any metric. Starters, bullpen, first half, second half, etc. Like our bullpen in 2021, a bunch of unreliable guys got hot at the right time.
In fact, the same bullshite narrative talk has been going on all day in Philly today where people are acting like “good pitching” beat a HR or nothing team.
Fact of the matter is the Phillies crushed two pitching staffs better than the Dbacks in Miami and Atlanta and went cold for a week at the wrong time. Even when many people declared that this Phillies team was “built for the playoffs” mentally or whatever the narrative was supposed to be.
RISP variance and strand rate variance are really all that matter in a tiny sample size like what you get in a playoff series.
All you can do is get as many good players as you can and give yourself as many bites at the variance apple as you can.
In fact, the same bullshite narrative talk has been going on all day in Philly today where people are acting like “good pitching” beat a HR or nothing team.
Fact of the matter is the Phillies crushed two pitching staffs better than the Dbacks in Miami and Atlanta and went cold for a week at the wrong time. Even when many people declared that this Phillies team was “built for the playoffs” mentally or whatever the narrative was supposed to be.
RISP variance and strand rate variance are really all that matter in a tiny sample size like what you get in a playoff series.
All you can do is get as many good players as you can and give yourself as many bites at the variance apple as you can.
This post was edited on 10/25/23 at 12:39 pm
Posted on 10/25/23 at 12:52 pm to volfan30
Schwarber, Turner, Harper and Castellanos were a combined 1-28 in games 6 and 7.
Ice cold at the wrong time, just like the Braves against Philly.
Ice cold at the wrong time, just like the Braves against Philly.
Posted on 10/25/23 at 1:13 pm to CharlieTiger
quote:
Ice cold at the wrong time, just like the Braves against Philly.
And still went the distance and was a swing away many times from winning the series.
Now post what they did in games 1-5. Nobody is saying we expect them to score 10 runs a game. But you can’t go ice cold in 3/4 games.
Posted on 10/25/23 at 1:18 pm to Dale Murphy
quote:
But you can’t go ice cold in 3/4 games.
The best players of all time are only getting a hit 3 out of every 10 times they put it in play when everything is going perfectly. If you’re a little off, an 0-15 can happen to anybody.
Look at Freddie and Mookie this year. Look at Castellanos in the NLCS after how good he looked in the NLDS. Look at Eddie Rosario for us in the WS in 21 after how good he looked in the NLCS. Look at Freddie in games 1/2/3 of the NLCS that year.
Posted on 10/25/23 at 1:22 pm to volfan30
Look at Yordan Alvarez’s stats against the Braves in the 21 WS. Isn’t he supposed to be the best postseason hitter of the modern era? Was the moment too big for him in 2021? Did he need Joc Pederson to teach him how to handle it?
Posted on 10/25/23 at 2:22 pm to volfan30
quote:
volfan30
Like I said, you can just chalk it up to bad luck. Or realize that 2 years in a row of the same results means something needs to change.
If the same thing happens next year, will you recognize that maybe this core needs something more? Or will it take more than 3 years.
I hope I'm proven wrong. I don't mind the taste of crow.
Also you're picking 1-2 players from each team. Much different than 8-9 failing at the same time.
This post was edited on 10/25/23 at 2:24 pm
Posted on 10/25/23 at 2:31 pm to Dale Murphy
We lost because 2 of our so called veteran high level pitchers got boo boos on their fingers and took a month off and we ended up getting a whopping 3 innings in the post season from them. Soft as soft can be. And now we’ll be told how we should back up the brinks truck for Fried when he has wilted the past 2 post seasons.
I get that it’s somewhat random but the Braves were beat before game 1 even started.
I get that it’s somewhat random but the Braves were beat before game 1 even started.
Posted on 10/25/23 at 2:40 pm to volfan30
So what are you saying? That nothing matters? Nothing you can do. It just is all random? I think that’s the perfect Atlanta Braves fan excuse
Because there are absolutely things that determine a champion. Atlanta lacks in a lot of these areas unfortunately. Now I do think the way the postseason is set up hurts the better teams by being off for a week while other teams are winning a playoff series. That allows teams to get hot quick. And they can ride that momentum and they have some feel on which of their guys are locked in or not
But I’ll never be convinced that there’s some players who have heart and play harder than others and those players have some “ fire” about them. And that plays in short sample sizes like the postseason.
Acuña, Albies and Ozuna all lack that killer instinct. Especially Acuña. As great as he is, his not hustling and not playing hard affects the rest of the team. Half arse running to 1B on ground outs. Jogging over to back up CF. All of these things add to the lack of success. Olson and Murphy I’m not even sure if they can speak. Murphy seems to play hard. He just runs out of talent at times.
It’s no coincidence that the Braves won the World Series without Acuña
Because there are absolutely things that determine a champion. Atlanta lacks in a lot of these areas unfortunately. Now I do think the way the postseason is set up hurts the better teams by being off for a week while other teams are winning a playoff series. That allows teams to get hot quick. And they can ride that momentum and they have some feel on which of their guys are locked in or not
But I’ll never be convinced that there’s some players who have heart and play harder than others and those players have some “ fire” about them. And that plays in short sample sizes like the postseason.
Acuña, Albies and Ozuna all lack that killer instinct. Especially Acuña. As great as he is, his not hustling and not playing hard affects the rest of the team. Half arse running to 1B on ground outs. Jogging over to back up CF. All of these things add to the lack of success. Olson and Murphy I’m not even sure if they can speak. Murphy seems to play hard. He just runs out of talent at times.
It’s no coincidence that the Braves won the World Series without Acuña
Posted on 10/25/23 at 2:58 pm to volfan30
quote:
The DBacks pitching was far worse than ours by any metric. Starters, bullpen, first half, second half, etc. Like our bullpen in 2021, a bunch of unreliable guys got hot at the right time. In fact, the same bullshite narrative talk has been going on all day in Philly today where people are acting like “good pitching” beat a HR or nothing team. Fact of the matter is the Phillies crushed two pitching staffs better than the Dbacks in Miami and Atlanta and went cold for a week at the wrong time. Even when many people declared that this Phillies team was “built for the playoffs” mentally or whatever the narrative was supposed to be. RISP variance and strand rate variance are really all that matter in a tiny sample size like what you get in a playoff series. All you can do is get as many good players as you can and give yourself as many bites at the variance apple as you can.
Neat, not sure what this has to do with us going after better deadline arms than Odorizzi and Chirinos… but neat
Posted on 10/25/23 at 3:00 pm to VinegarStrokes
quote:
I'd be tempted to have Strider throw at Harper in the first inning, regardless of the circumstances. Set the fricking tone.
This is so fricking stupid.
What tone does this set other than making us look like the fricking Marlins?
Whether we hit the Phillies, sweep the Phillies or het swept by the Phillies to open the year, it will have zero bearing on what happens 6 months layer if we meet them in the playoffs.
Posted on 10/25/23 at 3:05 pm to VinegarStrokes
quote:
I'd be tempted to have Strider throw at Harper in the first inning, regardless of the circumstances. Set the fricking tone.
Better yet, do what Doc Ellis did to the Big Red Machine on opening day back in the 70s. Plunk the first three batters on three straight fastballs to load the bases then strike out the next three batters to leave 'em stranded and tell the media after the game "f--k those guys, I was sick of them".
Posted on 10/25/23 at 3:12 pm to Broski
quote:
This is so fricking stupid.
What tone does this set other than making us look like the fricking Marlins?
Whether we hit the Phillies, sweep the Phillies or het swept by the Phillies to open the year, it will have zero bearing on what happens 6 months layer if we meet them in the playoffs.
lol...so angry
Posted on 10/25/23 at 3:14 pm to VinegarStrokes
quote:
lol...so angry
Says the guy wanting to hit players on opening day.
Posted on 10/25/23 at 3:19 pm to Finkle is Einhorn
I think you're probably right. Vocal leaders in the clubhouse, etc. do matter. Not so much that they'll often lead to a substantially worse team beating a substantially better one, but sometimes it'll line up like that.
We're a very good team but from the outside we do seem quite passive all the way around. Acuna is a fiery player sometimes, but be it age or language I don't think he has the leadership skills to fill that role. I would think the same, as you indicate, for Albies, probably even Matt Olson, Riley, etc. I'm not sure what the solution is to that.
But I also agree with Vol that if you're the first or second best team 3 times and only win one WS that's probably not terribly uncommon. I just hope we can be in that spot 2-3 more times and get another one before this window ends.
We're a very good team but from the outside we do seem quite passive all the way around. Acuna is a fiery player sometimes, but be it age or language I don't think he has the leadership skills to fill that role. I would think the same, as you indicate, for Albies, probably even Matt Olson, Riley, etc. I'm not sure what the solution is to that.
But I also agree with Vol that if you're the first or second best team 3 times and only win one WS that's probably not terribly uncommon. I just hope we can be in that spot 2-3 more times and get another one before this window ends.
Posted on 10/25/23 at 3:57 pm to VADawg
quote:
This is where I am. To me, that didn't look like a team who randomly went cold. That looked like a team who was pressing and feeling the weight of the moment. The massive uptick in strikeouts was a big indicator. They were chasing bad pitches out of the zone way more often than they did in the regular season. It looked like everyone was trying to be the hero who came up with the big hit instead of doing what got them there. They abandoned the approach they had all season.
I believe you are on the right track but without one big detail regarding the approach.
During the regular season, they are facing other teams 4th and 5th starters roughly 40% of the time. When you also account for the fact that they’re facing every team in the league, some who don’t even have quality 2s and 3s, the percentage of “quality” pitching opposition further drops.
Obviously in the post season you are facing the top starters on the top teams, where the approach does not work as well.
Posted on 10/25/23 at 4:51 pm to RunningJacket
quote:
We lost because 2 of our so called veteran high level pitchers got boo boos on their fingers
You know it's kind of hard to properly pitch when the most important thing required to pitch(your fingers) are not in proper working order. You can't get proper spin and push off on a baseball when your finger has a blister on it.
Let's see you try to pitch w/hurt/injured fingers there tough guy.
And you're calling Charlie Morton a pussy, when he pitched w/a fricking fractured leg in the WS. GTFOH.
quote:
RunningJacket
This post was edited on 10/25/23 at 4:55 pm
Posted on 10/25/23 at 4:53 pm to Pettifogger
quote:
Vocal leaders in the clubhouse, etc. do matter
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