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Started By
Message
Will the fed hike and how much?
Posted on 3/19/23 at 12:25 pm
Posted on 3/19/23 at 12:25 pm
Do you believe the fed will hike at all this week?
0.0?
0.25?
0.5?
What do you see happening in the markets with these scenarios?
Reading some articles that say they might pause, but find that hard to believe.
0.0?
0.25?
0.5?
What do you see happening in the markets with these scenarios?
Reading some articles that say they might pause, but find that hard to believe.
9
Posted on 3/19/23 at 12:27 pm to themasterpater
With another 150 banks on the verge of collapse I have to believe they’re going to pause
But if they pause it’s going to be admitting they screwed up
So .25 is my best guess
But if they pause it’s going to be admitting they screwed up
So .25 is my best guess
Posted on 3/19/23 at 12:31 pm to themasterpater
quote:
0.25
Posted on 3/19/23 at 1:00 pm to themasterpater
quote:
0.25
If they pause, it might send a bad message to the markets. Leading them to believe things are worse than what is priced in. My guess is 0.25 then pause.
Posted on 3/19/23 at 1:11 pm to themasterpater
.25 to save face
Posted on 3/19/23 at 1:27 pm to thelawnwranglers
quote:
.25 to save face
The history of the Fed is full of frickups, but I don't think they ever make decisions just to save face.
I think they do .25 and just continue that until it's too late to realize that we've gone too far and rate hikes aren't going to fix this.
I'm afraid there isn't anything that can fix this. I only hope it's a slow amd steady crash and doesn't accelerate
Posted on 3/19/23 at 2:59 pm to wileyjones
quote:
With another 150 banks on the verge of collapse
Got a source on that?
Posted on 3/19/23 at 3:52 pm to UltimaParadox
Posted on 3/19/23 at 4:14 pm to themasterpater
When we went into a recession, they lied and said the definition of recession had changed. They already said they are doing .5 in March.
Their arrogance knows no bounds and they think it doesn't matter since it is all play money anyway. Meanwhile they are all quietly holding gold and silver.
Their arrogance knows no bounds and they think it doesn't matter since it is all play money anyway. Meanwhile they are all quietly holding gold and silver.
Posted on 3/19/23 at 4:32 pm to themasterpater
.25
Can’t afford to appear panicked
Can’t afford to appear panicked
Posted on 3/19/23 at 5:51 pm to TigerintheNO
quote:
TigerintheNO
Thanks for the link, the actual study is a bit more interesting than the headline. It does point out that SVB was not alone in it's mark to market losses... It was one of the worst but not an outlier. However it was way up there as outlier when it comes in combination with uninsured deposits. Looks like that combination is going to pretty rare. But those banks could be at risk if over 50% of the uninsured depositors withdrawal. However even the study shows that is not that likely.
SVB, SI, and SBNY are pretty unique as they did not diversify like most banks.
Would think western alliance bank and cross river bank are going to be at risk with their outsize risk to VC tech and crypto exchange deposits that had f ueled their growth.
Posted on 3/19/23 at 5:57 pm to themasterpater
Doesn’t matter they’re not in charge they’ll be cutting rates in a matter of months 
Posted on 3/19/23 at 6:16 pm to wileyjones
quote:
.25 is my best guess
If for no other reason than to meet expectations
Posted on 3/19/23 at 6:18 pm to themasterpater
.25 and pause
This post was edited on 3/19/23 at 6:19 pm
Posted on 3/19/23 at 6:40 pm to wileyjones
quote:Yep.
if they pause it’s going to be admitting they screwed up
So .25 is my best guess
Posted on 3/19/23 at 7:04 pm to themasterpater
.25, there's simply no other choice with the popular fear over bank failures.
My guess is he'll couch it in terms which highlight the small bits and pieces of progress made since last summer, but he'll also caution that we're not through this yet. Depending on verbiage, many may take it as "we're pausing in May", and if that's the case then the bulls run strong after his statement.
Conversely, in the highly unlikely event they just say "frick it, banks need to learn how to fend for themselves because getting inflation down further and faster is the priority" and go with a .5, expect to see a selloff of epic proportions and maybe a couple more banks in trouble as people fear-porn themselves into making shitloads of withdrawals in a small time period.
My guess is he'll couch it in terms which highlight the small bits and pieces of progress made since last summer, but he'll also caution that we're not through this yet. Depending on verbiage, many may take it as "we're pausing in May", and if that's the case then the bulls run strong after his statement.
Conversely, in the highly unlikely event they just say "frick it, banks need to learn how to fend for themselves because getting inflation down further and faster is the priority" and go with a .5, expect to see a selloff of epic proportions and maybe a couple more banks in trouble as people fear-porn themselves into making shitloads of withdrawals in a small time period.
Posted on 3/19/23 at 7:50 pm to Bard
So you anticipate a bull run if it's a .25 hike? The thinking is this signals a pause and "normalcy" is around the corner? Do you think this bull run is sustained or just maybe a few weeks to months?
Posted on 3/19/23 at 7:52 pm to wutangfinancial
Who is in charge?
Posted on 3/19/23 at 8:30 pm to themasterpater
Whoever is large enough to move quality collateral prices like we saw last week. Commercial banks, pensions etc…
This post was edited on 3/19/23 at 8:32 pm
Posted on 3/19/23 at 8:37 pm to themasterpater
quote:
So you anticipate a bull run if it's a .25 hike?
Maybe. The market seems to be expecting it (as opposed to most other hikes), but I think a lot of that run will depend on Powell's words.
quote:
The thinking is this signals a pause and "normalcy" is around the corner?
No, not necessarily. There are two parts to these announcements: what they actually do with rates and their language concerning the future (and what they think/expect will happen). If, after the .25 increase, he comes out downplaying the increase in Core and playing up the drop in overall CPI, this may well be taken as a pause for May is possible-to-probable (depending on what March numbers show and what we see in April). If he comes out doing that and is fairly optimistic at the near-term economic future, the market will definitely take that as a pause being possible for May and run hard.
quote:
Do you think this bull run is sustained or just maybe a few weeks to months?
Beats the hell out of me. I could see it lasting for a bit, unless other banks fail or some other news causes problems (for example: February Home Sales come out on Wednesday and if that shows an unexpected increase then it could end or slow down a run because that could impact the chances of a pause in May).
The further out you go in trying to predict the market, the more things you have to take into account.
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