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re: Will the fed hike and how much?

Posted on 3/20/23 at 5:08 am to
Posted by JimMorrison
The Peninsula
Member since May 2012
20747 posts
Posted on 3/20/23 at 5:08 am to
quote:

Doesn’t matter they’re not in charge they’ll be cutting rates in a matter of months


This.

There's been an incredible shift in the interest rate futures ever since the bank failures.

It really doesn't matter what the Fed does this week. They will likely hike .25, but will be cutting in the near future.

Bonds and commodities are pricing in recession a lot sooner than previously expected.
Posted by Alltheway Tigers!
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2004
7139 posts
Posted on 3/20/23 at 6:52 am to
quote:

SVB, SI, and SBNY are pretty unique as they did not diversify like most banks.


Not strictly a diversification issue, just a series of stupid decisions by management.

Econ 101. Money supply increases, so does the chance of inflation. They ignored that lesson and went long on bonds when rates were at historically low and money supply being juiced.

Many banks/credit unions did the same, on the advice of lots of brokers and advisors, who said rates won’t go up as low rates are the new norm.
Posted by wutangfinancial
Treasure Valley
Member since Sep 2015
11113 posts
Posted on 3/20/23 at 11:24 am to
quote:

a lot sooner than previously expected.


Curves all around the world have been inverted since like last February
Posted by themasterpater
I travel
Member since Sep 2014
1342 posts
Posted on 3/20/23 at 7:53 pm to
So you don't think they will stop hiking?
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