- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Coaching Changes
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: What Is There To Be Bullish About?
Posted on 8/15/22 at 11:41 pm to I Love Bama
Posted on 8/15/22 at 11:41 pm to I Love Bama
quote:
What Is There To Be Bullish About?
Well, if the economy is as bad as you say. ( I agree ). Then the fed won’t be raising interest rates as much as was predicted.
0
Posted on 8/16/22 at 8:19 am to I Love Bama
Let the record show who is bullish in this thread.
You have the same opinion as Jim Cramer.
I have the same opinion as Michal Burry.
Now we wait...
You have the same opinion as Jim Cramer.
I have the same opinion as Michal Burry.
Now we wait...
Posted on 8/16/22 at 8:29 am to I Love Bama
quote:
Let the record show who is bullish in this thread. You have the same opinion as Jim Cramer. I have the same opinion as Michal Burry. Now we wait...
What’s the measure of who is right? New bottom?
Posted on 8/16/22 at 10:21 am to skewbs
quote:
I’ve seen you make some great points in several threads recently, with adequate detail and support for those points. Your fatal flaw is that the market DOES NOT equal the economy. You’ve got to learn that my dude.
Well iterated and fair criticism.
To my way of thinking, not following the economy more closely is just building a house of cards. Granted, this one uses some glue (economic expectations built into market prices) but it's ultimately susceptible to economic pressures if those pressures are great enough.
This leads me to believe there are still more of those pressures to come (look at WalMart's outlook, for instance), not less. Thus, it's not yet time (at least for me) to buy.
This post was edited on 8/16/22 at 10:22 am
Posted on 8/16/22 at 10:28 am to slackster
quote:
What’s the measure of who is right? New bottom?
I would offer measurement as being whether or not the Dow goes below 29,927 between now and the end of Q1 2023.
We could also add Unemployment remaining below 4% and CPI dropping below 4% or 5% as criteria as well.
Posted on 8/16/22 at 11:14 am to Bard
quote:
would offer measurement as being whether or not the Dow goes below 29,927 between now and the end of Q1 2023. We could also add Unemployment remaining below 4% and CPI dropping below 4% or 5% as criteria as well.
Betting on the market and betting on the economy are two separate things.
Posted on 8/16/22 at 11:35 am to I Love Bama
The thing to be bullish about (at least as of a few weeks ago) is that the market had already dropped 20% because of the thngs you mentioned. The recovery had to start sometime, and hopefully it already has.
Posted on 8/16/22 at 4:47 pm to I Love Bama
quote:
What Is There To Be Bullish About?
The big money tries to imagine what companies will look like in 1, 5, or 10 years.
Nobody knows what the market will do next. But the professionals make sure that when they're wrong, they lose small and when they're right, they win big.
With that in mind, the Nasdaq monthly chart:
You can see the pivot made over the last 3-4 months. Funds getting bullish in the last few weeks could have used the June low around 275 as a kind of stop loss. They know they could be wrong and take a small loss. But if we climb back to 400 they stand to gain many times their initial risk.
They do this over and over again, on many different time frames.
Posted on 8/16/22 at 4:51 pm to damnlambert
What?
There's plenty to be bullish about.
1) GDP projection is expected to be positive this quarter.
2) The FED is going to ease of interest rate hikes and economists are projecting a much lower rate of interest than the one that was originally proposed
3) Net investment flow has been positive over the past week I suspect.
There's plenty to be bullish about.
1) GDP projection is expected to be positive this quarter.
2) The FED is going to ease of interest rate hikes and economists are projecting a much lower rate of interest than the one that was originally proposed
3) Net investment flow has been positive over the past week I suspect.
This post was edited on 8/16/22 at 4:52 pm
Posted on 8/16/22 at 5:47 pm to Niner
quote:
Maybe with...how do you define "investor"?
To be fair, calling yourself an investor if you're a trader would trigger anyone who works at an investment firm and calls themselves an investor.
It's borderline idiotic but my firm pretty much doesn't hire people who call themselves traders or say they 'trade' lol. People who work in buy-side asset management get very bitter/salty when people call themselves investors when they trade, not invest.
This post was edited on 8/16/22 at 5:47 pm
Posted on 8/16/22 at 6:28 pm to RidiculousHype
Don’t look but 93% of the S&P just crossed it’s 50 day moving average to the upside.
According to Todd Sohn (technical strategist), over the past 50 years when 90% of the S&P hit its 50 day moving average it has solidified the bottom of the market and the market was on average 16% higher one year later.
According to Todd Sohn (technical strategist), over the past 50 years when 90% of the S&P hit its 50 day moving average it has solidified the bottom of the market and the market was on average 16% higher one year later.
This post was edited on 8/16/22 at 6:31 pm
Posted on 8/16/22 at 9:34 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:
Stocks go up" so buy is not an investment
What an incredibly stupid statement, especially given what their "chart implied"...which is, big picture, time in the market is the most reliable investment strategy. Period.
Posted on 8/16/22 at 11:01 pm to I Love Bama
The VIX is hanging out below 20.
S&P is running into the 200 day moving average.
Fed minutes are getting released tomorrow afternoon.
Back to bear we go.
S&P is running into the 200 day moving average.
Fed minutes are getting released tomorrow afternoon.
Back to bear we go.
Posted on 8/17/22 at 12:59 am to ArbitrageSupreme45
quote:
To be fair, calling yourself an investor if you're a trader would trigger anyone who works at an investment firm and calls themselves an investor.
That’s a pet peeve of mine as well. But I’m also in the Josh Brown camp and accept that while you have to realize which one you’re doing on a particular transaction, a person can be both on any given day.
I make much of my income trading options. But I also invest in equities and other asset classes. And even some option trades are structured so that if I’m assigned, the underlying is meant to be a longer term investment.
So I know where you’re coming from and have experienced what you’re referring to. The issue I have on forums and in conversations is when people mix & match the terms, or don’t really know what their end goal is. And the most painful thing is when a (meant to be) trade turns into an “investment” because people have a hard time setting loss limits on trades. It was sad to look over the crypto thread and see people talking about averaging down and “I gotta get back to even” as Celsius sank like a rock. But hey (raising my hand), I’ve been there too.
Posted on 8/17/22 at 5:18 am to ArbitrageSupreme45
quote:Interesting. So are you saying wutang is a trader who considers himself an investor, but thinks I'm a trader who shouldn't consider myself an investor?
To be fair, calling yourself an investor if you're a trader would trigger anyone who works at an investment firm and calls themselves an investor.
(To be clear, I but consistently with a long term time horizon. Only time I deviate is of the market presents a buying opportunity by going down 20% to start the year, as an example.)
Posted on 8/17/22 at 5:21 am to Jon Ham
quote:
Fed minutes are getting released tomorrow afternoon.
Back to bear we go.
Sept and rest of the year i feel will be back down we go just not the crash and scenario the bears predict.
This post was edited on 8/17/22 at 5:41 am
Posted on 8/17/22 at 5:37 am to ArbitrageSupreme45
quote:
The FED is going to ease of interest rate hikes
Why would the Fed stop raising interest rates when inflation remains high above their target and even rising still in certain categories? What am I missing because I don't see them pivoting earlier?
I think the market has grossly mispriced the Fed's intentions and I don't understand how it seems like a foregone conclusion that the Fed is going to ease up. The market action and rampant speculation recently is exactly what the Fed doesn't want to see happening.
I expect the Fed to remain hawkish and would bet another 75bps raise is coming in September.
Posted on 8/17/22 at 5:40 am to Jag_Warrior
quote:
The issue I have on forums and in conversations is when people mix & match the terms, or don’t really know what their end goal is. And the most painful thing is when a (meant to be) trade turns into an “investment” because people have a hard time setting loss limits on trades. It was sad to look over the crypto thread and see people talking about averaging down and “I gotta get back to even” as Celsius sank like a rock. But hey (raising my hand), I’ve been there too.
Yeah, traders become investors when they get caught and have to bag hold
Posted on 8/17/22 at 5:42 am to JimMorrison
quote:
Yeah, traders become investors when they get caught and have to bag hold
I'm a big investor/bagholder of Upst
Posted on 8/17/22 at 8:15 am to I Love Bama
I am a boring long-term wealth builder who looks past the horizon and does not change investing behavior when the wind changes direction, hurricane gusts included.
Context aside, never bet against human greed, including all parts of financial markets - investors, shareholders, C-suite, politician's yearning for power, little grey haired widowed grandmas on fixed incomes, too.
Context aside, never bet against human greed, including all parts of financial markets - investors, shareholders, C-suite, politician's yearning for power, little grey haired widowed grandmas on fixed incomes, too.
Page 3 of 8
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News