What Is There To Be Bullish About?

not much really. Think the theory of this "bull" run is inflation has already "peaked".

quote:

---

I'm just buying large cap dividend payers with a solid balance sheet and reinvesting it. If/when they go down I'll average down. I think most of them will be higher in 5-10 years. I don't really care where they are in 6 months.

---

This is a statement that you bears have missed ever since the Covid drop in 2020 and what that drop brought with it.Thousands and thousands of new investors with billions of new money invested into the market with this same concept stated above and the Apps to apply it. These aren't just college students they are professionals with 401ks and great paying jobs. I have been in since 2018 and have seen the spike after Covid.

These folks are buying the dip with their new fidelity/brokerage accounts and hoping that 5 to 10 years from now they made the right choice with history providing the evidence it will. This is why the John Deer's , Microsoft's, Dividend payers aren't crashing people are buying these expecting them to be stable for 5 or 10 years from now not a year or two or however long this recession last. Not saying the market can't crash but it would take a catastrophic event like USA/Russia/China War to do it. The game has changed after covid and pointing to a chart from 1929 to 2008 is not going to change that.

quote:

---

Is it just "can't time the market" "it goes up over time"?

---

Yep.

quote:

---

The bear case seems much more logical.

---

Good luck.

The media (and I mean that by literally anything you watch or read, regardless of the source) wants you to believe things are MUCH worse than they actually are. Once you understand that you can then invest accordingly.

quote:

---

Thousands and thousands of new investors with billions of new money invested into the market

---

And what about the Boomers exiting stage left? They have all the money, not the “new” investors.

quote:

---

Spike after Covid

---

Created by Fed and US gov. stimulus not “new investors.”

“Post Covid” has looked like one huge pump and dump scheme so far. Volume tells us as much.

At any given time you can always point to all of the crisis around the globe and choose to be scared.

Or you can just look at the stock market over time and see that it goes up with dips here and there. As long as you're expecting returns over 5-10 years, you'll be fine.

It’s a classic bear market rally. They always sucker in a fair bit of new, dumb money.

Because I'm a long-term investor:

The market expects about another 1% interest rate increase and then the fed to start cutting in the second half of ‘23. I think this expectation, along with the stock market rally over the last 4 weeks, implies the market is pricing in a very mild recession and a smooth landing on inflation. This is plausible, but I don’t think it’s likely. I think there’s a better chance the fed raises another 2-3% and keeps them there through most of ‘23, and the market will have to adjust down once it realizes this if this is in fact where we are heading.

quote:

---

Because I'm a long-term investor:

---

You're actually not an investor. You're a systematic momentum trader given what your chart implies. "Stocks go up" so buy is not an investment. Hopefully you insure yourself with that much long exposure.