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re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company
Posted on 8/12/26 at 7:30 pm to bayoubengals88
Posted on 8/12/26 at 7:30 pm to bayoubengals88
I’ve been a trading genius and total retard multiple times on this ride since last March!
Remember the glory days when any OTM call would print within a few days?
I was holding a weekly when the MSFT announcement was made.
It’s been a wild ride and it’s really just getting started.
Remember the glory days when any OTM call would print within a few days?
I was holding a weekly when the MSFT announcement was made.
It’s been a wild ride and it’s really just getting started.
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If tweet fails to load, click here. This post was edited on 8/12/26 at 9:51 pm
1
Posted on 8/12/26 at 7:44 pm to SquatchDawg
congrats guys it feels good when a plan comes together
Posted on 8/12/26 at 8:10 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
This is the definiton of a short squeeze. Plus, what bear case is left? Coreweave is stretching GPUs out to nine years now. Nebius is selling short term contracts at auctions for 3-4x pricing. I think we'll be making new all time highs soon. igoringa: Please correct me where I'm wrong. I haven't had any time to look into much today.
I have been traveling today too, so I haven't had a huge amount of time to look into this - but yes, I think you hit the nail on the head. Those two facts decimate, any realistic bear case. I am the first to try to be glass half empty out of conservatism. Sure there may be delays here and delays there and public pressure on the industry, but that's gonna only make available capacity that much more scarce.
Coreweave's nine year A100 scenario is so significant - I mean, it cannot be overstated. And NBIS 20 mill average in conjunction with $40-$50 million short-term auction corroborating spacex's known transactions - there is no reasonable argument left.
Burry and the shorts will likely try to keep pointing to circular financing, but at the end of the day there is an end customer paying these prices and that customer is not getting funded by Nvidia. To the extent there is a circular nature, it is in the ultimate production of the final deliverable and not financing of the end customer - that is a pretty big fricking difference as it validates the end demand is true.
Nebius and Coreweave did the entire industry, a solid, and we are reaping the reward
This post was edited on 8/12/26 at 8:16 pm
Posted on 8/12/26 at 8:25 pm to igoringa
I’ve been on here for years. Wish Bennyandtheinkjets would make a regular visit back to this board. He had some really good macro takes back in the day.
But I was thinking about the collective Money Talk gains on Nebius since the OP. There have been some losses here and there but I wouldn’t be shocked if the net gains here are north of $15mn.
The timing of the OP + the intensity of the capex investment since. The bulletproof market we’ve had in result of the capex. These won’t come often. Not like this.
We might spend the next decade or more via this board trying to find the next Nebius.
But I was thinking about the collective Money Talk gains on Nebius since the OP. There have been some losses here and there but I wouldn’t be shocked if the net gains here are north of $15mn.
The timing of the OP + the intensity of the capex investment since. The bulletproof market we’ve had in result of the capex. These won’t come often. Not like this.
We might spend the next decade or more via this board trying to find the next Nebius.
Posted on 8/12/26 at 8:38 pm to LSUcam7
You’re absolutely right.
The perfect storm. Unknown remnants of a former Russian powerhouse met the biggest TAM we’ve ever seen.
And we were in it at 5-10bn market cap.
It was always about trusting management.
The demand has even shocked Arkady.
The perfect storm. Unknown remnants of a former Russian powerhouse met the biggest TAM we’ve ever seen.
And we were in it at 5-10bn market cap.
It was always about trusting management.
The demand has even shocked Arkady.
Posted on 8/12/26 at 8:38 pm to igoringa
Appreciate it 
Posted on 8/12/26 at 8:40 pm to LSUcam7
I’ve been here since page 1… and was just starting to dabble in individual stocks at the time so I didn’t jump into the deep end right away. I have since added and have had some great gains!
Buy this kind of talk has me seriously thinking about still adding around these levels or on dips.
Buy this kind of talk has me seriously thinking about still adding around these levels or on dips.
This post was edited on 8/12/26 at 8:41 pm
Posted on 8/12/26 at 8:55 pm to igoringa
Posted on 8/12/26 at 8:58 pm to bayoubengals88
and keep in mind all of these prices are Blackwell or older pretty much - wait to the Vera Rubins rolls out.
Posted on 8/12/26 at 9:13 pm to igoringa
I still think there are hurdles to overcome
Still negative EPS
Can the revenue outpace capex and overhead for the continuing buildout.
That said, I do think AI will reach bubble status but we’re not there yet. We’re investing in the companies that create the AI framework. The companies that form or exist to use that framework for their business will be the next leg. The companies that built the internet were different from Pets.com.
I see NBIS as a mix of picks and shovels, compute for hyperscalers and a solution for enterprise AI. Nice combo.
Still negative EPS
Can the revenue outpace capex and overhead for the continuing buildout.
That said, I do think AI will reach bubble status but we’re not there yet. We’re investing in the companies that create the AI framework. The companies that form or exist to use that framework for their business will be the next leg. The companies that built the internet were different from Pets.com.
I see NBIS as a mix of picks and shovels, compute for hyperscalers and a solution for enterprise AI. Nice combo.
This post was edited on 8/12/26 at 9:15 pm
Posted on 8/12/26 at 9:44 pm to SquatchDawg
yeah, don't get me wrong. There will always be your hurdles but the negative EPS dissipates pretty quickly if we buy the 9 billion AR by the end of the year plan compared to three right now that's a triple on the top line. Well, not even talking about 27.
And in regards to revenue outpacing capex and overhead - at 20-25 per MW and the incredible lifespan we're seen with current chips is the e game changer in that regard.
The shorts argue aggressively chip should be depreciated over three years as that's so useful life - reality is showing a very very different picture which massively changes the economics in ROI. The payback time gets ridiculously short of these metrics.
Never mind, the brilliant Nvidia play to backstop debt effectively guaranteeing that extended useful life to keep the flywheel running. The only true fly in the ointment would be a decrease or taper in demand - and we truly aren't even through the first end of that.
The last 72 hours could not be more bullish. shite happens so maybe something will jump up and bite us but man the thesis has been triple downes in my mind
And in regards to revenue outpacing capex and overhead - at 20-25 per MW and the incredible lifespan we're seen with current chips is the e game changer in that regard.
The shorts argue aggressively chip should be depreciated over three years as that's so useful life - reality is showing a very very different picture which massively changes the economics in ROI. The payback time gets ridiculously short of these metrics.
Never mind, the brilliant Nvidia play to backstop debt effectively guaranteeing that extended useful life to keep the flywheel running. The only true fly in the ointment would be a decrease or taper in demand - and we truly aren't even through the first end of that.
The last 72 hours could not be more bullish. shite happens so maybe something will jump up and bite us but man the thesis has been triple downes in my mind
Posted on 8/13/26 at 7:58 am to igoringa
Started negative in pre but it’s on an upward move…. We going to push closer to the ATH today?
Posted on 8/13/26 at 8:35 am to meeple
What a juke at the open
Seems like if NBIS is up AH it immediately dumps at the bell and it it’s down AH it immediately jumps into the green at the bell.
Seems like if NBIS is up AH it immediately dumps at the bell and it it’s down AH it immediately jumps into the green at the bell.
Posted on 8/13/26 at 8:48 am to The Boat
Posted on 8/13/26 at 9:07 am to Jax-Tiger
Posted on 8/13/26 at 9:51 am to The Boat
Damn. I missed out on like $900 (big money in my small portfolio) selling some at $239 yesterday. Happy chat gpt was wrong on the sell points. I do wonder if I should sell 10 or so today so it flies to $320.
This post was edited on 8/13/26 at 9:52 am
Posted on 8/13/26 at 10:34 am to Mockingbird2008
I sold a handful at around the same price point. Knew it would fly after doing so. I may sell a handful more if we get close to $300 again. Damn unexpected home repairs have been killing me and forcing me to liquidate. 
Posted on 8/13/26 at 12:11 pm to HogPharmer
quote:
Damn unexpected home repairs have been killing me and forcing me to liquidate.
I have a home equity line of credit at the bank. I'd rather pay a little interest on a home equity loan than liquidate my investments.
Posted on 8/13/26 at 12:16 pm to Jax-Tiger
Posted on 8/13/26 at 1:00 pm to LSUcam7
quote:
The latest news
Whats your take on this? Nothingburger?
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