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Started By
Message
100 basis points tomorrow, or not?
Posted on 6/14/22 at 8:10 pm
Posted on 6/14/22 at 8:10 pm
I say he goes with 100bp. It’s needed and 75bp is almost a lock at this point.
Last week 50bp was viewed as a big move, and today almost no one views this as being enough.
I’m voting for 100.
Last week 50bp was viewed as a big move, and today almost no one views this as being enough.
I’m voting for 100.
25
Posted on 6/14/22 at 8:17 pm to Grinder
quote:
Volcker's Fed rolled out policies that pushed a key short-term interest rate to nearly 20 percent and sent unemployment soaring to nearly 11 percent in 1981
This is what is needed but they do not have the balls to do it.
We’ll be stuck like this for a while. Rip off the bandaid already.
Posted on 6/14/22 at 8:18 pm to Grinder
They’ve totally mismanaged their central banking economy. What makes you think that whatever they do now is correct?
frick the Federal Reserve.
frick the Federal Reserve.
Posted on 6/14/22 at 8:31 pm to Grinder
Just glad this Cluster is happening before the mid-terms.
Perfect timing!
Perfect timing!
Posted on 6/14/22 at 8:54 pm to Grinder
0 let it burn
Posted on 6/14/22 at 9:01 pm to Grinder
I've gone back and forth with this. I'm going to officially predict 50pt. I wouldn't be surprised eith 75 though. They will site the quantitative tightening as their reasons for not going "extreme"
I think 100 is the necessary evil but 0 chance it happens.
I think 100 is the necessary evil but 0 chance it happens.
Posted on 6/14/22 at 9:38 pm to Grinder
Naa, everyone thinks its 75 so its probably going to be 50
Posted on 6/14/22 at 9:38 pm to Grinder
.75 tomorrow and that again next month.
Posted on 6/14/22 at 9:45 pm to TigerTatorTots
quote:
Naa, everyone thinks its 75 so its probably going to be 50
And the stock market will go up 1200 only to crash again the next day.
Posted on 6/14/22 at 9:51 pm to Grinder
No, I would honestly be surprised if they do 75. They should absolutely do 100, but I just don’t see them having the guts to do it.
The whole 75 point story (likely a leak, or just floated to gauge response) seems to put the fed in a lose, lose, lose situation against the market.
50 - initial market rally like a line of coke, but then reality set in that it’s a ridiculous baby step and we crash because the fed is asleep at the wheel still.
75 - in line with last minute revised projections but confirms fed now has more concern that they led onto last meeting. Begin to lose confidence in feds decisions.
100 - we’re screwed. And they knew it all along.
Things must be breaking down fast. This is what we need, but the fed has yet to deliver what we need. I’ve heard the analogy mentioned that you don’t start a leg amputation by cutting off the toes.
The whole 75 point story (likely a leak, or just floated to gauge response) seems to put the fed in a lose, lose, lose situation against the market.
50 - initial market rally like a line of coke, but then reality set in that it’s a ridiculous baby step and we crash because the fed is asleep at the wheel still.
75 - in line with last minute revised projections but confirms fed now has more concern that they led onto last meeting. Begin to lose confidence in feds decisions.
100 - we’re screwed. And they knew it all along.
Things must be breaking down fast. This is what we need, but the fed has yet to deliver what we need. I’ve heard the analogy mentioned that you don’t start a leg amputation by cutting off the toes. 
Posted on 6/14/22 at 9:53 pm to Grinder
It’ll be 50 - 100 is just jawboning to get the markets to move on their own without the Fed actually having to do the work
Posted on 6/14/22 at 9:54 pm to Grinder
I’m in the 100 camp.
If it’s 75, and one more bit of economic data looks bad (jobless claims, etc), we’ll get a surprise 50 the following week
If it’s 75, and one more bit of economic data looks bad (jobless claims, etc), we’ll get a surprise 50 the following week
Posted on 6/14/22 at 9:54 pm to Grinder
It will be 75.
But it needs to be at least 250.
But it needs to be at least 250.
Posted on 6/14/22 at 10:17 pm to Grinder
0.0% chance its 100 bps.
The market will melt at 75 bps and feel a sense of relief at 50 bps.
Don’t see how Powell even does 75 bps since he said that wasn’t on the table. That’s hard to walk back.
The market will melt at 75 bps and feel a sense of relief at 50 bps.
Don’t see how Powell even does 75 bps since he said that wasn’t on the table. That’s hard to walk back.
Posted on 6/14/22 at 10:40 pm to Kreg Jennings
If it's less than 100 tomorrow then I'm guessing the markets will slightly rebound. Might be the time to cash out for a little while
Posted on 6/15/22 at 12:05 am to Kreg Jennings
quote:
Don’t see how Powell even does 75 bps since he said that wasn’t on the table. That’s hard to walk back.
He also qualified that by saying unless conditions change or something like that. The last CPI that was higher than expected seems to be a condition to go .75
Posted on 6/15/22 at 1:37 am to Grinder
Hopefully higher than 100. Get this train back on the tracks
Posted on 6/15/22 at 2:08 am to Grinder
Amazing how all the Fed criminals get busted for insider trading, are forced to get out the market as a symbolic punishment then tank the market within months.
Posted on 6/15/22 at 2:36 am to Grinder
I don’t understand how raising rates is going to fix anything. I feel like the main reason everything is so high is fuel prices.
Posted on 6/15/22 at 4:36 am to Grinder
75
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