re: Would Saban have won more titles if he had stayed here, than he did at Alabama?

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He learns his lessons and comes home to his first championship team as a head coach.

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In 2008, the seniors are the 2005 recruiting class which had only 15 players.

He might put up with Perriloux's antics thereby salvaging the last month of 2008 and not giving Lee and Jefferson a baptism by fire.

But we're still going up against Tebow in 08 and 09 and Cam Newton in 2010.

According to AI…

My final prediction
If Saban had remained LSU's coach through 2023:
Most likely: 5 national championships (1 already won in 2003 + 4 more)
Conservative floor: 4 total
Upper-end possibility: 7 total (matching what he ultimately achieved across LSU and Alabama)
…………..
Full AI response:

This is one of college football's great "what if?" questions. No one can know for certain, but we can make a reasonable estimate based on what Saban inherited, what LSU became, and what he accomplished at Alabama.

### The short answer

I think **Nick Saban would have won 4–6 national championships at LSU by the end of the 2023 season.**

Since he already won one (2003), that means he likely adds **3–5 more championships** after 2003.

My best estimate is **five total championships at LSU** (2003 plus four more).

### Why I think that's the most likely outcome

#### 1. LSU may actually have had a higher ceiling than Alabama

One advantage LSU has that Alabama doesn't is recruiting geography.

* Louisiana consistently produces elite talent.
* LSU has historically had very little in-state competition for those players.
* Saban had already built LSU into a recruiting powerhouse before leaving.

At Alabama, Saban had to battle Auburn, Georgia, Florida, Florida State, Clemson, Ohio State, and others for many recruits. At LSU, he likely keeps a larger percentage of Louisiana's best players every year.

#### 2. The foundation was already in place

Even after Saban left:

* LSU won the 2007 national championship.
* LSU won the 2019 national championship.
* LSU remained one of the nation's most talented programs almost every season.

That suggests Saban wasn't leaving behind a flash in the pan—he had permanently elevated the program. Saban himself has said he felt LSU "raised the bar," and the program remained nationally relevant afterward. ([Reveille][1])

#### 3. Some Alabama championships probably become LSU championships

Saban won six titles at Alabama:

* 2009
* 2011
* 2012
* 2015
* 2017
* 2020

It's unrealistic to assume LSU wins all six.

Why?

* Different schedules.
* Different assistants.
* Different quarterback development.
* Different playoff matchups.

But it's also difficult to imagine LSU *not* winning several of those given the talent base and Saban's coaching.

### My year-by-year estimate

Here's how I'd handicap it:

| Year | Chance Saban wins at LSU |
| ---- | -----------------------: |
| 2007 | High |
| 2009 | Very High |
| 2011 | High |
| 2012 | High |
| 2015 | Moderate |
| 2017 | Moderate |
| 2019 | High |
| 2020 | Moderate |

Obviously he wouldn't win all of these, but over that span I'd expect about **four additional championships**.

### The biggest ripple effect

The larger impact may actually be on Alabama.

Without Saban:

* Alabama probably doesn't become the defining dynasty of the modern era.
* Programs like Florida, Georgia, Ohio State, Clemson, and LSU likely split more championships.
* The SEC is still dominant, but not centered around one nearly unbeatable program.

Some analysts, including Paul Finebaum, have argued Saban could even have reached **9 or 10** championships had he never left LSU. I think that's an entertaining but overly optimistic projection because it assumes nearly every Alabama title simply transfers to Baton Rouge without accounting for how different circumstances can change outcomes. ([saturdaydownsouth.com][2])


[1]: LINK "What if Nick Saban stayed at LSU? The eternal debate rages on - Reveille"
[2]: LINK "Paul Finebaum says Nick Saban could have '9 or 10' national titles if he had stayed at LSU - Saturday Down South"

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Would Saban have won more titles if he had stayed

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No one will ever know. What a stupid question.