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re: What is your MBB excitement level after a 3-1 start to SEC play?
Posted on 1/18/24 at 8:16 am to SouthernInsanity
Posted on 1/18/24 at 8:16 am to SouthernInsanity
Me and the boys at the job discussing them this morning
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Posted on 1/18/24 at 8:18 am to MrWalkingMan
It was an upset because Ole Miss is ranked but LSU was actually a 3 point favorite so they should've won. But they took care of business. Let's keep it going.
Posted on 1/18/24 at 8:27 am to MrWalkingMan
10-11 SEC wins and an NCAA tourney bid. The roster is talented, experienced and deep plus even though the SEC appears to only have 3 really good teams predictions are that we will still get 7-8 teams in the tourney. We’ve already beaten 2 of the 4-8 group including one on the road. There’s no reason this roster can’t finish in that 4-8 group.
Posted on 1/18/24 at 8:42 am to MrWalkingMan
9. Who can’t be optimistic after last year
Posted on 1/18/24 at 8:47 am to Madking
quote:
10-11 SEC wins and an NCAA tourney bid
Would be a huge improvement from November / December. I think 7-8 wins is a little more realistic.
Although with Florida, Arkansas and Mizzou underperforming this year and the addition of Cook, the schedule looks much better than it did preseason.
Posted on 1/18/24 at 8:47 am to MrWalkingMan
Tempered excitement.
Posted on 1/18/24 at 8:55 am to ellessuuuu
The reason I say 10-11 is because we have advantages in the right areas. Our two best players are upperclassmen who’ve been productive for multiple seasons in college, we have the most or close to the most depth in the conference, we have 4-5 legit ball handlers and we have a lot of length. Those things should carry you when the real grind hits and should keep us from dropping off or beating ourselves.
Posted on 1/18/24 at 8:59 am to Madking
quote:
10-11 SEC wins and an NCAA tourney bid.
That's probably a bit much.
If they can win on Saturday I think there is definitely a path to 8 SEC wins. After Saturday, 5 of the next 7 are on the road, where it is always tough to win, regardless of opponent. The home games in that stretch are against Arkansas and Alabama. Alabama is a top 10 (analytics) team and Musselman generally finds a way to get his teams better as the season goes along. 8 wins would not be "great" (it's still a losing conference record). But better than expected. The last 6 games of the year are more favorable (4 of those at home against Miss. St, Missouri, Georgia, Kentucky).
I think reasonable best case scenario is LSU gets a win on Saturday to move to 4-1. They somehow find a way to get 2 wins out of the 7 after that to get to 6-6, then maybe find 4 wins of their last six to get to 10-8. However, I don't think it is reasonable to EXPECT that to be the case.
Even if they get to 10 SEC wins a NCAAT spot may be hard to come by because they did nothing of note in non-conf. play. The hope would be (and there is some validity to the thinking) is the committee would essentially look at LSU as two different teams. One without Cook and one with him. The one without him went 6-4 with a bad loss to Nichols and some ugly wins vs. lesser teams. The one with him in that scenario would have gone 12-9 against much tougher competition. The committee takes those things into account.
All told, I think people should just be excited they are competing right now and follow McMahon's advice. Don't wait until LSU starts winning to come out to the games. Come out to the games and be part of the reason they start winning.
This post was edited on 1/18/24 at 9:00 am
Posted on 1/18/24 at 9:12 am to Alt26
So let’s look at the schedule, you have 7 and 7 home and road. You should go 5-2 at home for the remainder, UK and Bama will be tough but Bama is very beatable. In the road is where it'll make or break the season. Going to Bama and Tennessee are probably losses but you go to Vandy which should be a win. The rest are UGA, Fla, SC and Arky. If you split those that’s still 11 wins and you’re almost guaranteed a spot in March. Again the SEC is projecting 8 teams in right now so no matter the non conf mishaps 11 wins is going to have you well ahead of a possible outside looking in team because nobody in that middle to lower SEC group has any non conference resume either. College basketball nationally doesn’t have a lot of good teams which is why the SEC looks like it’s going to get so many this year.
Posted on 1/18/24 at 9:19 am to MrWalkingMan
For this year? Medium excitement with understanding this year is not gonna be a magical year, but excited overall to see a little bit of growth and stability/culture in the program for the near future.
Posted on 1/18/24 at 9:22 am to Madking
I'm getting excited. I'm blocking out Saturday and Wednesday game times to watch or at least record. That's a big deal for me. Pre-Wade I wasn't paying any attention to LSU MBB. I'm optimistic and having 10 SEC wins would be great and a huge improvement from last year.
Posted on 1/18/24 at 9:27 am to Madking
quote:
So let’s look at the schedule, you have 7 and 7 home and road. You should go 5-2 at home for the remainder, UK and Bama will be tough but Bama is very beatable. In the road is where it'll make or break the season. Going to Bama and Tennessee are probably losses but you go to Vandy which should be a win. The rest are UGA, Fla, SC and Arky. If you split those that’s still 11 wins and you’re almost guaranteed a spot in March. Again the SEC is projecting 8 teams in right now so no matter the non conf mishaps 11 wins is going to have you well ahead of a possible outside looking in team because nobody in that middle to lower SEC group has any non conference resume either. College basketball nationally doesn’t have a lot of good teams which is why the SEC looks like it’s going to get so many this year.
That's a lot of "shoulds". I bet there are many Ole Miss fans who circled yesterday's game as a "should" win. I try to be more realistic and recognize winning on the road is very tough. So it's hard for me to say ANY road game is a "should" win. Even at Vanderbilt.
I agree that 5-2 in the remaining home games seems do-able. Can you find 3 more wins on the road? Really hard to say yes with a lot of certainty right now. Georgia could be the most improved team in the league right now. They already have 2 road wins and took Tennessee to the wire at home. Arkansas is struggling at bit. But winning at BWA is tough. South Carolina is better than last year. How much, we don't know just yet. And I always try to account for just "unexpected" results that seem to happen for every team.
Could I see a scenario that LSU gets to 11 SEC wins? If they can win on Saturday, I do. But I'll try to be a bit more cautious in my expectations (not hopes) and say 8-9 wins is more realistic.
Posted on 1/18/24 at 9:34 am to Alt26
Right and I specifically worded it that way based on the roster and schedule. I’m not saying it will happen but we should be able to get there. If Johnny Jones can get Andre Stringer, Anthony Hickey and Tuba to 20 wins and a 9-9 SEC mark this team should do better.
Posted on 1/18/24 at 9:35 am to Madking
quote:
If Johnny Jones can get Andre Stringer, Anthony Hickey and Tuba to 20 wins and a 9-9 SEC mark this team should do better.
Think the league is much stronger now than it was then. At the same time, we've certainly got a better roster now as well.
Posted on 1/18/24 at 9:40 am to ellessuuuu
quote:
Think the league is much stronger now than it was then. At the same time, we've certainly got a better roster now as well.
Agreed.
It's not reasonable to compare the SEC today to the SEC in Jones' first season...10 years ago. I think this team CAN get to 8,9, maybe 10 wins. But I'm not ready to say they "should" right now.
Posted on 1/18/24 at 9:42 am to Madking
According to kenpom, a very well respected site that hasnt gotten too low or too high on this team all season, theyll be favored in 4 games rest of season including at vandy and 3 home games against arkansas, uga, mizzou.
So expecting more than 7-8 conference wins is pretty lofty expectations relative to what power ratings experts say.
But i also know what madking is trying to do, thats obvious
So expecting more than 7-8 conference wins is pretty lofty expectations relative to what power ratings experts say.
But i also know what madking is trying to do, thats obvious
This post was edited on 1/18/24 at 9:44 am
Posted on 1/18/24 at 9:52 am to DRock88
quote:
Cautiously optimistic
same...I just hope some students or more people show up. PMAC sounded like the library last night on tv.
Posted on 1/18/24 at 9:58 am to Alt26
quote:
I think this team CAN get to 8,9, maybe 10 wins. But I'm not ready to say they "should" right now.
7 seems to be the mark right now. That is a number we can get to and even breeze past IF we can keep playing well in the PMAC, this team getting to 89 was pretty impressive and their half court defense has been strong to start conference play.
My concern is that there will be a stretch of 3 or 4 games where we play poorly. First can we win even when playing bad and can we bounce back after a really bad stretch. That will determine if we can hit that 10 win number.
Posted on 1/18/24 at 10:03 am to josh336
What am I trying to do?
Posted on 1/18/24 at 10:22 am to MrWalkingMan
350!
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